Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles!
The Chase heads west to the desert this weekend and we’re down to four races left in this championship.
Let’s get into this week’s picks post.
Chase Briscoe wins the Bank of America 400
Let’s start with Charlotte, because that finish was something else.
Chase Briscoe held off his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell by 0.029 seconds to win the Bank of America 400. That’s the closest finish of the entire 2026 season and the second closest in Charlotte Motor Speedway history. Briscoe led the final 61 laps and Bell was right on his bumper the whole way without ever quite getting there.
It’s Briscoe’s third win of the season, back-to-back after Las Vegas, and the eighth of his career in 212 starts. It was also his first ever win at Charlotte.
Our card had a strong afternoon. Bell gave us second place after starting 17th, leading 93 laps and winning Stage 2. Our main driver Tyler Reddick came home eighth with Stage 1 points. Kyle Larson won Stage 1, finished fourth in Stage 2, and led a race-high 97 laps with the fastest lap of the race.
Josh Berry finished fourth from 27th on the grid, which is worth remembering because he’s on this week’s card.
One honest note on last week’s post: I had Chase Briscoe in the dark horse section rather than on the card, and I explained at the time that I went with Bell because Bell had a finishing result at Charlotte while Briscoe had a DNF. Bell delivered a second. Briscoe won. Both of those reads were defensible and one of them cost us.
Where the Chase Stands
| Pos | # | Driver | Pts | Wins | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2367 | 2 | Leader |
| 2 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2318 | 4 | -49 |
| 3 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2316 | 1 | -51 |
| 4 | 19 | Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2302 | 3 | -65 |
| 5 | 12 | Ryan Blaney Team Penske • Ford | 2282 | 3 | -85 |
| 6 | 22 | Joey Logano Team Penske • Ford | 2275 | 3 | -92 |
| 7 | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2253 | 5 | -114 |
| 8 | 2 | Austin Cindric Team Penske • Ford | 2222 | 0 | -145 |
| 9 | 54 | Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2211 | 2 | -156 |
| 10 | 77 | Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2187 | 1 | -180 |
| 11 | 9 | Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2182 | 2 | -185 |
| 12 | 23 | Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2182 | 0 | -185 |
| 13 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2159 | 0 | -208 |
| 14 | 7 | Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2152 | 1 | -215 |
| 15 | 17 | Chris Buescher RFK Racing • Ford | 2151 | 0 | -216 |
| 16 | 60 | Ryan Preece RFK Racing • Ford | 2140 | 1 | -227 |
Larson leads Hamlin by 49 with four races to go. Briscoe’s two straight wins pulled him to fourth at 65 back, which is genuinely live.
The championship market reflects that. Caesars has Larson at -240 to win the title, Hamlin +250, Bell +550, Briscoe +900, Blaney +1500 and Logano +2200. Reddick is +4500. Everyone from Wallace down sits at +25000, which the book is politely calling the mathematical fringe.
Reddick at 114 back needs wins, plural, and probably some help. I’m not going to pretend otherwise.
The Track at Phoenix Raceway
Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile, low-banked oval in Avondale, Arizona, and the Freeway Insurance 500 runs 312 laps. Green flag is 3:00 PM ET Sunday on USA Network, with HBO Max streaming and MRN plus SiriusXM on radio.
There’s a notable schedule change here. This is the first time since 2019 that Phoenix is not hosting the season finale. That job moved to Homestead-Miami this year, so Phoenix is just another Chase race rather than the championship decider.
Phoenix rewards a very specific skill set. It’s flat, it’s a mile long, and it has that odd dogleg on the backstretch. Track position and short-run restart speed matter enormously.
The odds board is unusually flat at the front this week. Yahoo has Ryan Blaney at +370 and Bell at +450. FanDuel has Blaney +390 and Bell +400. TheSpread reports the two tied at +400. Caesars opened Blaney +375, Bell +400. Nobody can separate them.
Joe Gibbs Racing is the +130 favorite to be the winning team, ahead of Team Penske at +180, Hendrick at +330, 23XI at +800 and Spire at +1600.
Practice is Saturday at 4:30 PM ET with qualifying at 5:35 PM ET.
My Main Pick: Tyler Reddick (7th in Chase, +1300)
Reddick is locked in and I’ll be straight about where he is. He’s 114 points back with four races left and the title is realistically gone.
What he can still do is finish well, and the market agrees. FOX Sports has his top-10 prop at -175, which is one of the shortest top-10 prices on the entire board. The betting markets expect the No. 45 to run up front at Phoenix even if they don’t expect a win.
He’s also trending the right way. Eighth at Charlotte with Stage 1 points, 41 points banked at Vegas before that. He still has five wins on the season, more than anybody in the field.
At +1300 he’s a long price for a five-time winner. For our pool, where we’re accumulating points rather than chasing a single payout, a driver the market rates heavily to run top 10 is doing exactly what we need.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Ryan Blaney (5th in Chase, +370)
Blaney has won the last two Cup races at Phoenix Raceway and he’s going for a third straight.
That is the single strongest track-specific credential available anywhere on this board, and it’s why he’s the betting favorite at +370 despite sitting fifth in the Chase.
He’s also in form. Third at Charlotte last week, running up front all afternoon. Team Penske is +180 to be the winning team, second only to JGR.
Kalshi traders have him at 21 percent, the highest on the board. When the betting markets, the prediction markets, and the track history all point at the same driver, I’m not going to overthink it.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Christopher Bell (3rd in Chase, +450)
Bell is the co-favorite and RotoWire has him as their outright race-winner best bet at +450.
He’s coming off a second at Charlotte where he started 17th, led 93 laps and won Stage 2. Before that he won the Chase opener at Darlington. The No. 20 has been one of the two or three fastest cars in the Chase all fall.
He’s third in the championship at 51 back, which means he’s still genuinely alive and has every reason to race hard for the win rather than manage a finish.
Kalshi has him at 17 percent, second only to Blaney. Pairing him with Blaney gives us the two drivers the entire market agrees are most likely to win this thing.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: William Byron (13th in Chase, +1300)
Byron won at Phoenix in the spring of 2023 and is one of a short list of Next Gen winners at this track alongside Briscoe and Blaney.
Covers has him on their sleeper list at 5 percent, and RotoWire put him in their optimal DraftKings lineup for the week. That’s two independent analyst reads pointing the same direction.
He’s 13th in the Chase at 208 back, which is a hole that top tens cannot fix. He needs to win a race, and he’s at a track where he’s already done it. That combination of a proven track win and genuine desperation is exactly what the outside tier is for.
At +1300 he’s the same price as our main driver, which tells you the market sees real upside here.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Josh Berry (non-Chase, +3500)
Berry finished fourth at Charlotte last Sunday after starting 27th. That was one of the best drives of the day and the best run of any non-Chase driver.
Covers is specifically leaning on him at a big number this week, listing him among their sleeper picks at 3 percent and calling him out by name in their long-shot predictions.
He’s not in the Chase, so the Wood Brothers have no points math to manage. He can race for the win without any strategic handcuffs.
A driver coming off a top-five, with explicit analyst backing, at 35 to 1. That’s the shape of pick that’s worked for us all season.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Michael McDowell (non-Chase, +20000)
This is the contrarian swing and it comes with real backing rather than a hunch.
RotoWire named McDowell their value pick of the week in DraftKings DFS, put him in their optimal lineup at $6,100, and listed his top-10 finish at +600 as one of their three NASCAR best bets for the race.
That’s an analyst explicitly betting money on him running top 10 at Phoenix.
He’s at +20000 on the Caesars board. For our pool a top-10 from a 200-to-1 driver is enormous value, and this is a flat one-mile track where veteran racecraft and track position matter more than raw horsepower.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Kyle Larson (+750) — Covers made Larson their headline sleeper pick to win this week, noting he’s hit the top 10 in six of his last eight visits to Phoenix and has been top five in six of his last seven starts overall. He’s the championship favorite at -240 and he led a race-high 97 laps at Charlotte. He’s inside the top 12 so he’d cost an inside slot, and I had him on the card the last two weeks. If you want him again, the case is strong.
Denny Hamlin (+600) — Fifth at Charlotte and second in the championship at 49 back. Roundtable notes he has two top-fives and five top-10s at Phoenix in the Next Gen era and is “looking for speed” here. The form is there, the track fit is less certain.
Joey Logano (+600) — Third in the Penske pecking order on the odds board but the team is +180 to win. He’s sixth in the Chase at 92 back and has three wins this season.
Chase Briscoe (+800) — Won Phoenix in spring 2022 and has won the last two races on the schedule. RotoWire has his top-five finish at +110 as one of their best bets. He’s inside the top 12 at fourth. Left him off because Blaney and Bell have the shorter prices and the better current signals, but he’s genuinely hot.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Shane Van Gisbergen (+15000 to +20000) — He’s in RotoWire’s optimal DFS lineup, so there’s an argument. But a flat one-mile oval is still the opposite of where his talent lives, and with no road course left in the Chase, this is another week where his edge is worth nothing.
Ryan Preece — Last in the Chase at 227 back and priced at +7000 to +8000. He hasn’t shown the pace in the postseason to justify a spot.
Daniel Suarez — I had him on the card at Charlotte off his Coca-Cola 600 win and he returned a modest points day. At +7500 to +8000 here with no Phoenix credential I could verify, I’m moving on.
Carson Hocevar — Tenth in the Chase at 180 back and +3000 to +3500. The speed shows up in flashes but Phoenix punishes aggression and the consistency hasn’t been there since the Bristol incident with Blaney.
My Full Pool Card — Freeway Insurance 500 at Phoenix Raceway
Sunday, October 18, 2026 | 3:00 PM ET | USA Network | Avondale, Arizona
Chase Race 7 of 10. 312 laps on the one-mile low-banked oval. First time since 2019 that Phoenix isn’t the season finale. A win is worth 55 points.
Freeway Insurance 500 at Phoenix
| # | Driver | Role | Odds | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | +13007th | Finished 8th at Charlotte with Stage 1 points, and the market has his top-10 prop at -175, one of the shortest on the whole board |
| 🏆 | 12 | Ryan Blaney Team Penske • Ford | Inside Top 12 | +3705th | Won the last two Cup races at Phoenix and is going for a third straight, plus a 3rd-place run at Charlotte last week |
| 🏆 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | +4503rd | Co-favorite and RotoWire's outright race-winner bet, coming off a 2nd at Charlotte where he led 93 laps and won Stage 2 |
| 🔥 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +130013th | A Next Gen Phoenix winner in spring 2023, named a sleeper by Covers and in RotoWire's optimal lineup, 208 back so he has to win |
| 🔥 | 21 | Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +3500Non-Chase | Finished 4th at Charlotte from 27th on the grid, and Covers is specifically leaning on him at a big number this week |
| 🔥 | 71 | Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +20000Non-Chase | RotoWire's explicit value pick this week, in their optimal lineup, and they are betting his top-10 finish at +600 |
Odds via the Yahoo Sports board as of October 16, with McDowell from Caesars. Books vary a lot this week, so shop around.
Please always bet responsibily.
Wrapping Up This Week's Picks Post For The Freeway Insurance 500
That’s the card. The logic is simpler than usual because the signals all lined up.
Blaney has won the last two races at this track and the market made him favorite because of it. Bell is the co-favorite and the single best betting pick according to RotoWire. Byron has a Phoenix win, two analyst endorsements, and 208 points of motivation. Berry just ran fourth from 27th and Covers is on him. McDowell has an analyst putting real money on his top-10 at +600.
Reddick stays as our main driver because that’s the deal we made at the halfway point, and this week the market is actually telling us something encouraging about him at -175 to run top 10.
Practice and qualifying are Saturday afternoon. Green flag Sunday at 3:00 PM ET on USA Network.
I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the recap. Four races left.
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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