Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles! Second-to-last race of the season, and Kyle Larson may have just ended the championship fight at Talladega.
Let’s get into this week’s picks post!
Larson won the YellaWood 500 by 0.041 seconds over William Byron, which was the closest superspeedway finish we’ve seen in a while. It’s his third Chase win after Gateway and Kansas, the 35th of his career in 436 starts, and remarkably his first ever Talladega victory in 24 tries.
He came into Sunday leading by five points. He leaves leading by 73.
That’s partly because of what happened to everyone else. Jayski described it as a race “marked by two major multi-car accidents involving numerous championship contenders,” and the damage shows up in the standings. There were 41 lead changes among 15 drivers across just four cautions, which tells you how wide open it was until it wasn’t.
Our card was a split. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. delivered a third, exactly the kind of superspeedway survival result we drafted him for. Chris Buescher won Stage 1 and led a race-high 53 laps. Carson Hocevar and Ryan Preece both banked solid points days.
But our main driver Tyler Reddick scored one point. He was collected in one of those two big wrecks, and there’s nothing in a pool card that protects against that.
Chase Briscoe won his first career pole at 186.065 mph, which was a nice moment on an otherwise brutal afternoon for several contenders
Where the Chase Stands
| Pos | # | Driver | Pts | Wins | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2441 | 3 | Leader |
| 2 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2368 | 4 | -73 |
| 3 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2367 | 1 | -74 |
| 4 | 19 | Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2362 | 3 | -79 |
| 5 | 22 | Joey Logano Team Penske • Ford | 2341 | 3 | -100 |
| 6 | 12 | Ryan Blaney Team Penske • Ford | 2334 | 3 | -107 |
| 7 | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2315 | 6 | -126 |
| 8 | 54 | Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2258 | 2 | -183 |
| 9 | 2 | Austin Cindric Team Penske • Ford | 2258 | 0 | -183 |
| 10 | 77 | Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2243 | 1 | -198 |
| 11 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2227 | 0 | -214 |
| 12 | 9 | Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2223 | 2 | -218 |
| 13 | 23 | Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2223 | 0 | -218 |
| 14 | 7 | Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2201 | 1 | -240 |
| 15 | 60 | Ryan Preece RFK Racing • Ford | 2192 | 1 | -249 |
| 16 | 17 | Chris Buescher RFK Racing • Ford | 2186 | 0 | -255 |
Two races left. Larson is 73 clear with a maximum of 55 points available for a win, which means Hamlin, Bell, and Briscoe all need to win at least one of the last two races and hope Larson stumbles badly.
Realistically, Larson’s three Chase wins have done it. But he does have to actually finish these races, and Martinsville is a place where tempers and sheet metal both get damaged.
One structural note for the card: Bubba Wallace slipped to 13th and is now available in our outside tier. Byron and Elliott moved up into the top 12.
One structural note for the card: Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace are dead level at 2,223 points, with Elliott holding 12th on the wins tiebreak. That technically puts Wallace in our outside tier, Byron moved up to 11th after his runner-up at Talladega.
Martinsville Speedway is a 0.526-mile paperclip in Ridgeway, Virginia
The Xfinity 500 runs 500 laps for 263 miles. Stages end on Laps 130, 260 and 500. Green flag is 2:00 PM ET Sunday on NBC, with MRN and SiriusXM Channel 90 on radio.
It’s the shortest and flattest track left on the schedule, and it’s the only venue that has been on the NASCAR circuit continuously since the series began in 1948.
The single most important thing about this week versus last: drivers control their own fate here. At Talladega the pack decides who survives. At Martinsville, track position, brakes, and patience decide it, and a driver who’s fast can actually go win the race. That changes my card structure. Last week I went one inside and four outside to buy lottery tickets. This week I’m back to two inside picks, because the favorites here are favorites for real reasons.
Hendrick Motorsports is the all-time leader at Martinsville in wins with 32, poles with 21, top fives with 102, top 10s with 161 and laps led with 11,545. Hendrick drivers have won 13 of the 22 Martinsville Chase races, including three of the last six.
William Byron is the defending Xfinity 500 winner.
My Main Pick: Tyler Reddick (7th in Chase, +2200)
Reddick is 126 points back with two races left, so the championship is gone. That’s actually useful information for a pool card.
He has nothing to protect now. No points to manage, no conservative strategy calls, no reason to settle for a clean 12th. He can go race for a trophy, and he’s shown this season that when he does that he’s capable of winning anywhere. Six wins is still more than anyone in the field.
He’s also just two races removed from winning at Phoenix, where he passed Briscoe on the final restart and held off Blaney. The speed is there when the car stays in one piece.
At +2200 he’s a long price for the winningest driver of the 2026 season. The Talladega wreck wasn’t about pace.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Ryan Blaney (6th in Chase, +450)
Blaney has won two of the last three Xfinity 500s at Martinsville. He also carries an 8.048 average finish at this track, which BVM Sports notes is the best among the drivers they featured this week.
He’s co-favorite at +450 and VegasOdds specifically calls him the value play on the board, pointing to that record of two wins in the last three runnings of this race.
Here’s what makes him especially live: at 107 points back he cannot points his way into this championship. He has to win. A driver who must win, at a track where he’s won two of the last three, is exactly the profile I want anchoring the card.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Denny Hamlin (2nd in Chase, +450)
Hamlin has the most Martinsville wins of any active driver and he’s the co-favorite at +450, with Predictem listing him at +400 and making him their outright pick to win.
Predictem’s reasoning is blunt and I think correct: statistically he’s one of the top picks here, he’s got a lot left to prove, and with only two races remaining this is his best chance to go out with a bang in 2026.
He’s second in the Chase at 73 back, which means the math requires him to win. Same situation as Blaney, at the same price, at a track he’s dominated more than anyone still racing.
Having both co-favorites as the inside picks isn’t creative, but Martinsville is not a track where creativity gets rewarded. The fast cars here are fast for a reason.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Josh Berry (non-Chase, +1800)
Covers made Berry their headline sleeper this week and the Martinsville record behind it is genuinely strong.
He has back-to-back 10th-place finishes at Martinsville. The one last fall came from a 27th-place starting spot, which tells you the car can come forward here. This past spring he started third, scored points in both stages and led two laps.
He’s not in the Chase, so the Wood Brothers have zero strategic constraints on Sunday.
He also just gave us points at Charlotte with a fourth from 27th, and he was on our Phoenix card. The form is real and Martinsville is clearly one of his better tracks.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Ryan Preece (15th in Chase, +4000)
Preece has a 9.6 average finish across his last five Martinsville starts, and he’s scored stage points in all five of them. That’s remarkable consistency at a track where a lot of drivers simply get lapped.
Earlier this season at Martinsville he ran in the top 10 most of the day and finished eighth with a 104.2 driver rating.
Covers also points to broader short-track form in 2026: eighth and 10th at Bristol, 10th at North Wilkesboro. The No. 60 is good on small tracks.
He delivered a solid points day for us at Talladega too. At 249 back he’s got nothing to lose and a verified Martinsville floor.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Ross Chastain (non-Chase, +4000)
Chastain is Predictem’s mid-range pick this week, and their note is that in 15 career Martinsville starts he has three top fives and five top tens.
He also finished fourth at Talladega last Sunday, so he’s arriving with momentum.
He’s out of the Chase entirely, which at Martinsville means he can race the way Ross Chastain races without anyone’s championship to worry about. At a track where late-race aggression decides the winner, that’s not a small thing.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Kyle Larson (+700) — Three Chase wins and a 73-point cushion. He’s in Hendrick equipment at the track Hendrick owns historically. The reason he’s not on my card is that he’s the one driver with a reason to protect rather than attack, and a conservative Larson is worth fewer pool points than an aggressive Blaney or Hamlin.
William Byron (+900) — Defending Xfinity 500 winner, two Martinsville wins, and he just finished second at Talladega. He’s inside the top 12 at 11th so he’d cost an inside slot. If you want Hendrick exposure, he’s the better bet than Larson this week.
Chase Elliott (+850) — Third shortest price on the board and inside the top 12 at 12th. Hendrick’s Martinsville dominance is the whole case.
Todd Gilliland (+35000) — Predictem’s dark horse pick at a genuinely enormous number. Not for me, but worth knowing somebody with a byline is on him.
Drivers I’m Steering Clear Of
Christopher Bell (+1000) — Third in the Chase at 74 back, so he needs a win too. But I had him last week at Talladega and the price here is shorter than his Martinsville record justifies relative to Blaney and Hamlin.
Brad Keselowski (+5000) — I used him at Talladega on the strength of a market signal and he returned a modest 21 points. The signal isn’t there this week. Moving on again.
Shane Van Gisbergen (+7500) — The shortest, flattest track on the schedule with 500 laps of brake management. This is the furthest possible thing from his strengths.
Daniel Suarez (+10000) — 240 points back and no Martinsville credential I could verify. Better value exists at similar prices.
My Full Pool Card — Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway
Sunday, November 1, 2026 | 2:00 PM ET | NBC | Ridgeway, Virginia
Chase Race 9 of 10. 500 laps, 263 miles on the 0.526-mile paperclip. Stages end at Laps 130, 260 and 500.
Xfinity 500 at Martinsville
| # | Driver | Role | Odds | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | +22007th | Won at Phoenix two races ago and still leads the field with six wins, now free to race flat out with the title gone at 126 back |
| 🏆 | 12 | Ryan Blaney Team Penske • Ford | Inside Top 12 | +4506th | Won two of the last three Xfinity 500s, holds an 8.048 average finish at Martinsville and needs a win from 107 back |
| 🏆 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | +4502nd | The most Martinsville wins of any active driver and Predictem's outright pick, sitting 2nd in the Chase at 73 back |
| 🔥 | 21 | Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +1800Non-Chase | Back-to-back 10th-place finishes at Martinsville, including one from 27th on the grid, and Covers' headline sleeper this week |
| 🔥 | 60 | Ryan Preece RFK Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +400015th | A 9.6 average finish across his last five Martinsville starts with stage points in all five, plus an 8th here this spring on a 104.2 rating |
| 🔥 | 1 | Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +4000Non-Chase | Three top fives and five top tens in 15 Martinsville starts, Predictem's mid-range pick, and 4th at Talladega last week |
Odds via The Racing Experts board as of October 27. Check your book for live prices.
Always bet responsibly. Know your limits.
Wrapping Up This Week's Pick's Post For Martinsville
That’s the card race fans, and the structure deliberately swings back from last week.
Talladega was a lottery, so we bought five tickets. Martinsville is a skill track, so we’re back to backing the two co-favorites who both have elite records here and both mathematically must win to stay alive. Blaney with two wins in the last three runnings and Hamlin with more Martinsville victories than anyone else still driving is about as solid as an inside tier gets.
Then three outside picks who all have verified Martinsville numbers rather than narratives: Berry’s back-to-back 10ths, Preece’s 9.6 average over five starts, and Chastain’s five top tens in 15 tries.
Reddick stays as our main driver, and for the first time in a while his situation actually helps us. He’s out of the championship, which means he’s free to go win a race instead of managing one.
Practice and qualifying are Saturday. Green flag Sunday at 2:00 PM ET on NBC.
One more race after this one.
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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