Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles!
This is a heavy weekend and I want to start there.
NASCAR is holding a public Celebration of Life for Kyle Busch at Charlotte Motor Speedway this weekend, following Friday night’s Ecosave 200 Truck Series race. Five months after we lost him, the sport is gathering at the track where so much of his career played out to say goodbye properly. If you’re anywhere near Concord, it’s worth being there.
Now, to the racing, because this weekend is different in a second way too. Let’s get into this week’s picks post.
Goodbye Roval, Hello Oval
For the first time since 2017, the fall Charlotte Cup race is on the 1.5-mile oval. No Roval.
Charlotte Motor Speedway announced back in February that the fall weekend was moving off the road course and back to the configuration that hosted the track’s October superspeedway event from 1960 through 2017. NASCAR revived the Chase format this season and the move came alongside it. The practical effect is that there’s now no road course anywhere in the 2026 Chase.
Brad Keselowski put it well when the move was announced, saying it brings the sport back to its roots and that it’s the kind of race fans expect and deserve.
For our purposes this changes everything. If you’ve been digging out old Roval notes and road course specialists, put them away. This is a 1.5-mile quad-oval and the drivers who’ve been fast on intermediates are the ones who matter.
The Bank of America 400 runs 267 laps for 400.5 miles, split into stages of 80, 85 and 102 laps. Green flag is 3:00 PM ET Sunday on USA Network, with 39 cars entered.
What Happened at Vegas
Chase Briscoe won the South Point 400 the completely dominant way. He swept both stages, led a race-high 175 laps, and beat Kyle Larson by 1.376 seconds. It’s his second win of the season after Chicagoland and the seventh of his career in 211 Cup starts.
Denny Hamlin won the pole at 186.787 mph, his fifth pole of the year and second at Las Vegas, but couldn’t convert.
Our card was a mixed bag. Larson delivered a second, exactly what we wanted from the inside tier. Our main driver Tyler Reddick banked 41 points, his best Chase haul to date and a genuinely encouraging sign after a rough three-week stretch. Chase Elliott added 34. Ryan Preece had a tough afternoon and gained only nine.
Where the Chase Stands
| Pos | # | Driver | Pts | Wins | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2318 | 2 | Leader |
| 2 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2278 | 4 | -40 |
| 3 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2263 | 1 | -55 |
| 4 | 22 | Joey Logano Team Penske • Ford | 2247 | 3 | -71 |
| 5 | 12 | Ryan Blaney Team Penske • Ford | 2238 | 3 | -80 |
| 6 | 19 | Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2234 | 2 | -84 |
| 7 | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2212 | 5 | -106 |
| 8 | 54 | Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2208 | 2 | -110 |
| 9 | 2 | Austin Cindric Team Penske • Ford | 2190 | 0 | -128 |
| 10 | 23 | Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2181 | 0 | -137 |
| 11 | 77 | Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2160 | 1 | -158 |
| 12 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2158 | 0 | -160 |
| 13 | 9 | Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2155 | 2 | -163 |
| 14 | 7 | Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2123 | 1 | -195 |
| 15 | 17 | Chris Buescher RFK Racing • Ford | 2122 | 0 | -196 |
| 16 | 60 | Ryan Preece RFK Racing • Ford | 2118 | 1 | -200 |
Larson leads Hamlin by 40 and Bell by 55 with four races to go after this one. Briscoe’s Vegas win moved him to sixth at 84 back.
Reddick sits seventh at 106 back. That’s a real hole, but a win is worth 55 points and there are five races left. It isn’t over, it just requires him to actually win something.
How I Built This Card
Nobody has run a fall Cup race on this oval in nearly a decade, so old October results are close to useless. The relevant evidence is the Coca-Cola 600 from this past May, on this same oval, with this same car.
Here’s that finishing order:
Daniel Suarez
Christopher Bell
Denny Hamlin
Tyler Reddick (from pole)
Kyle Larson
Ty Gibbs
Ryan Blaney
Joey Logano
William Byron
Zane Smith (from 19th)
Four of my six picks come straight off that list. I’d rather build on what actually happened here than on momentum from somewhere else.
On the odds board, Caesars opened Hamlin at +425 with Bell and Larson both at +450, Briscoe +600, and Reddick +750. FanDuel through SportsLine has Larson at +470 as the favorite with Bell and Hamlin both +500. The books can’t separate the top three.
Joe Gibbs Racing is the +100 favorite to be the winning team, ahead of Hendrick at +250, Penske at +500, 23XI at +550 and Spire at +1600.
My Main Pick: Tyler Reddick (7th in Chase, +750)
Reddick won the pole for the Coca-Cola 600 and finished fourth while leading a race-high 119 laps. Nobody led more laps at Charlotte this season than our guy. Jayski headlined their recap “Charlotte consistency continues for Tyler Reddick,” which tells you how that drive was read at the time.
That’s the most relevant data point available for this race. Same track, same configuration, same car, and he was the fastest thing out there for long stretches of a 400-lap night.
He’s showing signs of life again too. The 41 points he banked at Vegas were his best return of the Chase, and he still has five wins on the season, more than anyone else in the field.
At 106 points back with five races left, he needs to win. This is a track where he’s already proven he can.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Kyle Larson (1st in Chase, +450)
Larson has finished first, second, first and second across his last four races. He led 235 laps at Kansas, finished second at Vegas, and turned a 26-point edge into a 40-point cushion.
At Charlotte he finished fifth in the Coca-Cola 600 from 18th on the grid and won Stage 1. Solid rather than spectacular, but paired with the form he’s carrying it’s more than enough.
He’s +450 at Caesars and +470 at FanDuel. The championship leader, the hottest driver in the garage, on a 1.5-mile oval where he’s already run top five this year.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Christopher Bell (3rd in Chase, +450)
Bell has the deepest Charlotte oval record of any championship contender, and it’s not particularly close.
He won the 2024 Coca-Cola 600, his first victory in the race. This past May he finished second here from 17th on the grid, won Stage 3, and led 44 laps. That’s a win and a runner-up at this track in three years.
He’s third in the Chase at 55 back, and he’s the driver who snapped a 33-race winless streak by taking the Chase opener at Darlington, so he’s already proven he can deliver when the postseason is on the line.
At +450 he’s the same price as Larson with a better Charlotte résumé. Pairing him with Larson gives us the two drivers who finished second and fifth in the only recent Cup race on this configuration.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Chase Elliott (13th in Chase, +2000)
Elliott is back in our outside tier at 13th and he brings the deepest career Charlotte record available there.
He won at Charlotte in 2020. He’s led nearly 350 laps at this track across his career, with a 53 percent top-10 rate over 15 starts and a 15.7 average finish. For a driver outside the top 12, that’s an elite track record.
I want to be straight with you about the counterargument: his Coca-Cola 600 finish in May was outside the top 15. The most recent data point doesn’t support him. I’m keeping him because 15 starts is a far bigger sample than one race, and because he’s in the second-fastest intermediate package in the garage at 163 back with nothing left to protect. But you should know that caveat exists.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Daniel Suarez (14th in Chase, +5000)
Suarez won the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May. On this oval. This season. In this car. He’s the only driver outside the top 12 who can say that, and the market has him at +5000.
One honest caveat: that win came on a two-tire call in a rain-shortened race and he only led 17 laps. It was a crew chief win as much as a driver win. But a victory is a victory, and Spire has now proven they can put this car in position to steal one here.
The emotional layer matters too. That 600 win was dedicated to Kyle Busch, who had mentored Suarez since he arrived from Mexico. Coming back to this track on the weekend NASCAR holds Busch’s Celebration of Life, with a win here already in his pocket, is the kind of setup that occasionally produces something.
He’s 195 back and out of the title fight, so Spire can call the race however they want.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Zane Smith (non-Chase, +20000)
This is the value play of the week and the numbers behind it are genuinely surprising.
Smith finished 10th in the Coca-Cola 600 this May from 19th on the grid. That was the best result of any driver outside the top 12. And it wasn’t a fluke, because he also finished 10th in the 2023 Coca-Cola 600, which was his first career Cup top-10.
Two top-10 finishes in NASCAR’s longest race on this exact oval, and he’s sitting at 200 to 1.
He’s not in the Chase, so Front Row Motorsports has no points math to manage and no reason to settle for a quiet 20th. At that price, a driver who can realistically run top 15 here is exactly the kind of swing the outside tier is for.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Denny Hamlin (+425) — The Caesars favorite and third in the Coca-Cola 600 with 75 laps led. He’s second in the Chase at 40 back and just won the Vegas pole. The hardest driver to leave off this card.
Chase Briscoe (+600) — Just swept both stages and led 175 laps winning at Vegas, and he ran second in Stage 1 of the Coca-Cola 600 before a Lap 318 crash ended his night. The momentum is real. I went with Bell because Bell has a finishing result here and Briscoe has a DNF, but if you weight current form more heavily, Briscoe is the pick.
Ty Gibbs (+1000) — Sixth in the Coca-Cola 600 from second on the grid. Four Charlotte oval starts with a pole, 97 laps led and two sixth-place finishes. At 110 back his title hopes are fading, which makes Charlotte a last-stand spot for the No. 54.
Brad Keselowski (+5000) — Two career Charlotte wins and a 44 percent top-10 rate here, which is a deeper career record than Zane Smith’s. His 2026 finish was 15th and RotoWire is recommending a pass, and I’ve already gone back to him once this season without it paying off. But the career numbers are real and at +5000 he’s a legitimate alternative to Smith if you’d rather have the proven winner than the long shot.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Shane Van Gisbergen (+12500) — This is the week his road course edge disappears entirely. With the Roval gone there’s no non-oval left in the Chase. He did finish 11th in the Coca-Cola 600, but he started third and lost ground doing it.
Ryan Preece — Gained just nine points at Vegas and sits last in the Chase at 200 back. He DNF’d the Coca-Cola 600 in the same Lap 318 crash that collected Briscoe. He’s +7500, which tells you where the market has him.
Michael McDowell (+20000) — Finished 14th in the Coca-Cola 600, but from fourth on the grid. Losing ten spots from a strong starting position isn’t the trend you want. Same price as Zane Smith with a worse result.
My Full Pool Card — Bank of America 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway
Sunday, October 11, 2026 | 3:00 PM ET | USA Network | Concord, North Carolina
Chase Race 6 of 10. 267 laps, 400.5 miles. Stages of 80, 85 and 102 laps. First fall Cup race on the Charlotte oval since 2017. A win is worth 55 points.
Bank of America 400 at Charlotte
| # | Driver | Role | Odds | Charlotte Oval Evidence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | +7507th | Won the pole and finished 4th in the Coca-Cola 600 here in May while leading a race-high 119 laps, more than anyone else at Charlotte this season |
| 🏆 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Inside Top 12 | +4501st | Finished 5th in the Coca-Cola 600 from 18th with a Stage 1 win, and has gone 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd over his last four races |
| 🏆 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | +4503rd | Won the 2024 Coca-Cola 600 and finished 2nd here in May with a Stage 3 win and 44 laps led, the best Charlotte record of any contender |
| 🔥 | 9 | Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +200013th | A 2020 Charlotte winner with nearly 350 career laps led here, a 53 percent top-10 rate across 15 starts and a 15.7 average finish |
| 🔥 | 7 | Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +500014th | Won the Coca-Cola 600 on this exact oval in May, the only driver outside the top 12 with a 2026 Charlotte victory to point at |
| 🔥 | 38 | Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +20000Non-Chase | Finished 10th in the Coca-Cola 600 from 19th, and also went 10th in the 2023 running, the best Charlotte record of anyone outside the top 12 |
Opening odds via Caesars as of October 6. Check your book for live prices.
Please always bet responsibly
Wrapping Up This Week's Picks Post For The Bank of America 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway
That’s the card, and I rebuilt it from scratch this week after a reader challenge made me go back and check my own work.
My first draft had Chase Briscoe on it, and this pick was built on momentum and team equipment rather than anything that happened at Charlotte. Briscoe DNF’d the Coca-Cola 600. When I went back to the actual results from May, Bell’s second place and Zane Smith’s tenth were sitting right there and I’d walked past both.
So the final six are built on one question: what did this driver actually do on the Charlotte 1.5-mile oval? Reddick led the most laps. Bell finished second and has won this race before. Larson ran fifth and won a stage. Suarez won it. Smith was the best car outside the top 12 and has done it twice. Elliott is the one pick carried by career record rather than May’s result, and I’ve told you why.
Practice and qualifying are Saturday. Green flag Sunday at 3:00 PM ET on USA Network.
And if you’re at the track Friday night, take a moment at the Celebration of Life. Rowdy forever.
I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full recap.
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
If you love NASCAR and want more than surface level coverage, you’re in the right place.
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