Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles!
The Chase is halfway through its first five races and we’re heading to Las Vegas on Sunday evening. Before we get to the card, let’s talk about what Kyle Larson did at Kansas last weekend, because it was genuinely remarkable.
Let’s get into this week’s picks post.
Kyle Larson Dominates the Hollywood Casino 400
Larson won the Hollywood Casino 400 by leading 235 of 267 laps, a new track record for laps led at Kansas Speedway. He swept both stages, set the fastest lap, and maximized every available point on the board. Chase Briscoe actually got past him with 30 laps to go, but Larson took it back with seven to go and held on. It’s his second win in three races, his fourth career Kansas victory, and the 34th win of his Cup career in 432 starts.
Austin Cindric finished second, Denny Hamlin third, Briscoe fourth, and Ryan Blaney fifth. Christopher Bell was sixth, William Byron seventh, Chase Elliott eighth, Bubba Wallace ninth, and Ryan Preece tenth.
Joey Logano was awarded the pole through NASCAR’s formula after practice and qualifying were rained out, then finished 20th.
Our card had a decent afternoon. Hamlin delivered a third, Byron a seventh, and Elliott an eighth. Ross Chastain and Josh Berry both finished outside the top 10, and so did our main driver Tyler Reddick, who picked up just 26 points on the day.
That’s three of six producing real results, which is where we’ve been living lately. Reddick is the frustration. He’s now gone four straight races without a top-10 finish and he’s slipped to seventh in the Chase at 111 points back.
Here’s the thing though: Vegas is a track where he’s genuinely good, and I’ll get into that below.
Where the Chase Stands
Five races in and the top of the board has separated:
| Pos | # | Driver | Pts | Wins | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2282 | 2 | Leader |
| 2 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2256 | 4 | -26 |
| 3 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2232 | 1 | -50 |
| 4 | 22 | Joey Logano Team Penske • Ford | 2215 | 3 | -67 |
| 5 | 12 | Ryan Blaney Team Penske • Ford | 2191 | 3 | -91 |
| 6 | 54 | Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2188 | 2 | -94 |
| 7 | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2171 | 5 | -111 |
| 8 | 19 | Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2159 | 1 | -123 |
| 9 | 23 | Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2142 | 0 | -140 |
| 10 | 2 | Austin Cindric Team Penske • Ford | 2142 | 0 | -140 |
| 11 | 77 | Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2132 | 1 | -150 |
| 12 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2124 | 0 | -158 |
| 13 | 9 | Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2121 | 2 | -161 |
| 14 | 60 | Ryan Preece RFK Racing • Ford | 2109 | 1 | -173 |
| 15 | 17 | Chris Buescher RFK Racing • Ford | 2096 | 0 | -186 |
| 16 | 7 | Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2095 | 1 | -187 |
Larson leads Hamlin by 26 with six races to go. Bell is 50 back and Logano 67. Realistically that’s the championship right there, with Blaney and Gibbs on the outer edge of it.
Everyone from Reddick down is more than 110 points out, and with a win worth 55 points, the math for those drivers has shifted. Top tens don’t close a 111-point gap in six races. Wins do. That’s worth remembering when you’re reading the card below, because several of my picks are drivers who have every reason to drive like they’ve got nothing to lose.
Also note that the top-12 cutoff shifted this week. Byron climbed to 12th after his seventh at Kansas, which pushed Elliott out to 13th. That makes Elliott available in our outside tier for the first time in a while, and I’ve used that.
The South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile asphalt quad-oval and the South Point 400 runs 267 laps for 400.5 miles, with stage breaks at Lap 80 and Lap 165. Green flag is 5:30 PM ET Sunday on USA Network.
This is the second of three straight 1.5-mile tracks, so everything teams learned at Kansas last week carries straight over. That matters a lot this week, and it’s a big reason the Hendrick cars are on my card.
The history here is dominated by three names. Joey Logano has four Las Vegas wins, the most of any active driver, with 15 top tens and a 9.8 average finish in 26 starts. Kyle Larson has three wins, an 8.9 average finish, and a series-leading 881 laps led at the track. Denny Hamlin also has three wins, 16 top tens, and 555 laps led in 29 starts.
Hamlin is the two-time defending Las Vegas winner, having taken both the October 2025 South Point 400 and the March 2026 spring race. That 2025 win was an emotional one. He passed teammate Chase Briscoe with four laps to go and beat Larson by 1.533 seconds for the 60th win of his career.
The top 10 from that race is worth knowing because several names on my card are in it: Hamlin, Larson, Bell, Briscoe, Reddick, Logano, Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, Preece, and Brad Keselowski.
One note on the odds: the books are genuinely split on the favorite this week. FOX Sports has Larson at +350 with Hamlin +400. TheSpread has Hamlin +350 and Larson +400. FanDuel through SportsLine has Hamlin at +350 and Larson +410. Shop around if you’re betting.
Joe Gibbs Racing is the +115 favorite to be the winning team, followed by Hendrick Motorsports at +200, Team Penske at +550, 23XI Racing at +700, and Spire Motorsports at +1200.
Let’s get into the card.
My Main Pick: Tyler Reddick (7th in Chase, 2171 pts, 5 wins)
I’m not going to spin this. Reddick has gone four races without a top 10 and he’s 111 points back with six to go. That’s a difficult spot.
But Las Vegas is a track where he can actually do something about it. He finished fifth in last year’s South Point 400, running right behind Hamlin, Larson, Bell, and Briscoe. That’s a top-five at this exact race, at this exact track, one year ago.
He also still has five wins on the season, more than anyone else in the field. The speed that produced those wins hasn’t vanished. It’s gotten buried under a run of bad Sundays, and 1.5-mile tracks have historically been where the 23XI Toyota is at its best.
The market has him between +750 and +900 depending on your book. At 111 points back, he should be racing for the win rather than managing a result, and that’s exactly the kind of Sunday that turns a season around.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Kyle Larson (1st in Chase, 2282 pts, 2 wins)
Larson has three Las Vegas wins, including back-to-back victories in the fall of 2023 and the spring of 2024. He owns an 8.9 average finish at the track and a series-leading 881 laps led, which is more than any other active driver.
He’s also the hottest driver in the sport right now. Two wins in the last three races plus a runner-up at Bristol. He just led 235 of 267 laps at Kansas, a 1.5-mile oval, one week before this one. Same track type, same tire philosophy, same Hendrick package.
He’s a short price, somewhere between +350 and +410. I’m usually hesitant on favorites. This week the resume and the current form both say take him anyway.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Denny Hamlin (2nd in Chase, 2256 pts, 4 wins)
Hamlin has won the last two Cup races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He took the South Point 400 last October and the spring race this past March. Two straight at a track where he already had 16 top tens in 29 starts.
He finished third at Kansas last Sunday, so the intermediate speed is clearly there right now. He’s second in the Chase at 26 back with six races left, which means every finishing position matters enormously for him.
Three career Vegas wins, the two most recent Cup races at the track, and a 555-lap total led. Pair that with Larson and you’ve got the two most proven intermediate drivers in the field anchoring the card.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Chase Elliott (13th in Chase, 2121 pts, 2 wins)
Elliott slipped to 13th this week after Byron’s seventh at Kansas, which makes him available in our outside tier. That’s a gift.
He finished eighth at Kansas in the same Hendrick intermediate package that Larson used to lead 235 laps. When one car in an organization is that dominant on a track type, the rest of the stable usually isn’t far behind on speed, even if the result doesn’t show it.
He’s 161 points back with six races to go. The math says top tens won’t save his Chase. He needs to win one. That’s exactly the mindset you want from an outside pick, and he’s a former Cup champion with genuine intermediate speed in the fastest equipment on the board this month.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Ryan Preece (14th in Chase, 2109 pts, 1 win)
Preece finished ninth in last year’s South Point 400. He also finished 10th at Kansas last Sunday, his best Chase run yet.
Covers has him on their sleeper list this week alongside Briscoe and Cindric. He’s a Daytona winner this season, so he’s shown he can close when the opportunity arrives.
He’s 173 points back and realistically out of the title picture, which again means he can race without any strategic handcuffs. A top-10 at this track last year plus a top-10 last week at the same track type is a genuine form-and-credential combination at a long price.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Alex Bowman (non-Chase)
Bowman finished seventh in last year’s South Point 400. He’s not in the Chase field, so there’s no points math to manage and no reason for the No. 48 to do anything other than race for a trophy.
He’s the longest price on my card at +6000 on the FOX Sports board. And critically, he’s in Hendrick equipment at the moment when Hendrick has been the strongest intermediate team in the garage.
Now, I want to be upfront about something: Larson, Elliott, and Bowman means three Hendrick cars on a six-driver card. That’s concentration risk. If Hendrick has a bad Sunday, half my card goes with it.
I’ve made that call deliberately. Hendrick is +200 to be the winning team, second only to JGR, and Larson just led 235 laps at an identical track type seven days ago. The upside justifies the correlation. But it’s a real risk and you should know I’m taking it on purpose rather than by accident.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Joey Logano (+1400) — This is the best value on the entire board and it’s not close. Logano has four Las Vegas wins, the most of any active driver, with a 9.8 average finish in 26 starts. He won the South Point 400 in both 2022 and 2024. He’s fourth in the Chase and he just won at Bristol two weeks ago. He’s inside the top 12 so he’d eat an inside slot, which is the only reason he’s not on my card. If you have the room, take him.
Chase Briscoe (+800) — Covers has him as their top sleeper pick to win and RotoWire put him in their “solid plays” group. He finished fourth at Kansas leading 23 laps and running fourth in Stage 2, and he was fourth in last year’s South Point 400 too. He’s inside the top 12 at 8th.
William Byron (+1000) — Finished seventh at Kansas and just climbed into the top 12. SportsLine’s Bobbitt and Greco are backing Byron over Reddick in a head-to-head bet at -135 this week, which is worth knowing if you’re weighing those two against each other.
Brad Keselowski (+4000) — Finished 10th in last year’s South Point 400. I’ve been honest about leaning on him too often earlier this season, and a 10th isn’t a huge credential, but at that price it’s a legitimate dart for anyone going deep.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Austin Cindric — Finished second at Kansas, which was a terrific run, and Covers has him as a sleeper. But as Covers also points out, he’s started 31st in each of his last two Las Vegas appearances. Track position matters a lot on a 1.5-mile oval and that qualifying history is a real flag.
Carson Hocevar — Fell a lap down at Kansas after a Lap 122 restart stack-up that started when Keselowski got into him. He’s 150 back in 11th and the aggressive style that makes him fun to watch has been costing him finishes in the Chase.
Daniel Suarez — Last in the Chase at 187 back. Vegas hasn’t been a standout track for him and there are better long-shot options with actual results here.
Chris Buescher — 186 points back in 15th. No verified Vegas credential I could point to, and at +4000 I’d rather have Bowman’s seventh-place finish here last year at +6000.
My Full Pool Card — South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sunday, October 4, 2026 | 5:30 PM ET | USA Network | Las Vegas, Nevada
Chase Race 5 of 10. 267 laps, 400.5 miles. Stages end Lap 80 and Lap 165. Second of three straight 1.5-mile tracks. A win is worth 55 points.
South Point 400 at Las Vegas
| # | Driver | Role | Chase | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | 7th2171 pts | Finished 5th in last year's South Point 400, still leads the field with 5 wins, 111 back and needs a big Sunday |
| 🏆 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Inside Top 12 | 1st2282 pts | Three Vegas wins, an 8.9 average finish and a series-leading 881 laps led here, plus two wins in the last three races |
| 🏆 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | 2nd2256 pts | Two-time defending Las Vegas winner after October 2025 and March 2026, three career wins and 16 top tens in 29 starts here |
| 🔥 | 9 | Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | 13th2121 pts | Finished 8th at Kansas in the same Hendrick intermediate package Larson dominated with, 161 back and has to swing for wins |
| 🔥 | 60 | Ryan Preece RFK Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | 14th2109 pts | Finished 9th in last year's South Point 400 and 10th at Kansas last week, flagged as a sleeper by Covers this week |
| 🔥 | 48 | Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | Non-Chase | Finished 7th in last year's South Point 400, Hendrick equipment without any championship math to manage, longest price on the card |
Chase points current through Kansas. Check your book for live odds before betting.
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Wrapping Up This Week's Picks Post For The South Point 400
That’s the card race fans. The theme this week is straightforward: Las Vegas rewards drivers who’ve done it here before, and every pick has either a top-10 at this exact race last year or a multi-win history at the track.
Reddick finished fifth here last October and has the most wins in the field. Larson has three Vegas wins, the best average finish, and the most laps led of anyone. Hamlin has won the last two Cup races at this track. Elliott, Preece, and Bowman all bring either Hendrick intermediate speed, a top-10 here last year, or both, and all three are far enough back that they can race for wins instead of points.
The Hendrick concentration is a deliberate bet on the team that just led 235 of 267 laps at a nearly identical track. If that goes wrong, it goes wrong in a big way, and I’d rather tell you that up front than pretend the card is more balanced than it is.
Practice and qualifying are Saturday. Green flag Sunday at 5:30 PM ET on USA Network.
I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full recap. See you Sunday, everyone!
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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