Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles! It’s Friday and the Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway is Sunday afternoon. We’re two races away from the Chase cutoff and the stakes heading into this weekend are about as high as they get in the regular season.
Let’s get into this week’s blog post.
What Happened At Richmond Last Week
Before we dive in, let’s talk about what happened at Richmond last week. Joey Logano won the Cook Out 400 leading 95 laps and beating Chase Briscoe by 0.392 seconds for his second victory of the season. That’s two wins in four races for Logano and the form from the No. 22 Team Penske Ford has been genuinely impressive. Our main driver Reddick had a decent result gaining 28 points which is an improvement from recent weeks. Hamlin extended his championship lead to 138 points which is genuinely commanding heading into the final stretch.
Seven drivers have now clinched their spots in the 16-driver Chase field: Hamlin, Blaney, Gibbs, Reddick, Briscoe, Elliott, and Bell. That leaves nine spots still up for grabs with just two races remaining. The bubble drivers are going to be racing with everything they’ve got on Sunday.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Now let’s talk about the Magic Mile. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a 1.058-mile oval with almost no banking. The corners sit between two and seven degrees and the straightaways at just one degree. That makes the Magic Mile a braking and mechanical-grip puzzle rather than a horsepower track. Tire fall-off and restart execution usually decide it. The race runs 301 laps for 318.46 miles with Stage 1 ending at Lap 70, Stage 2 at Lap 185, and a 116-lap final stage to the checkered flag.
Track position carries real weight here. Historically, top-10 starters have accounted for roughly 55 percent of winners and the pole alone for about 11 percent. Watch qualifying tomorrow closely because where our picks start is going to matter a lot on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney won this race last year leading 116 laps including the final 39 to beat Josh Berry by 0.937 seconds. However, that was Blaney’s only NHMS finish better than 18th in the entire Next Gen era which is worth keeping in mind.
One more stat that tells you everything about this weekend. Joe Gibbs Racing has won every single stage in all three Next Gen Cup races at New Hampshire. JGR drivers have led 661 of the 907 laps raced in the current car at this track. That’s a 73% laps-led rate from one organization. Bell, Hamlin, and their JGR teammates have simply owned the Magic Mile in this era.
Green flag drops at 3:00 PM ET on USA Network. Let’s get into the card.
My Main pICK: Tyler Reddick (4th in points, 831 pts, 5 wins)
Reddick is our locked-in main driver and his playoff spot is clinched which allows the 23XI Racing team to focus entirely on finding the speed that’s been missing over the past several weeks. New Hampshire’s flat layout demands mechanical grip and handling precision over raw horsepower which is a different challenge from the tracks where he struggled recently. SportsLine experts back Reddick in head-to-head matchups this week which suggests the analytical community still sees genuine value in the No. 45. A top-ten result would be a meaningful step heading into the Daytona regular season finale next weekend.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Christopher Bell (7th in points, 695 pts)
This might be the week. I genuinely believe that.
Bell has two Cup victories at New Hampshire, winning in 2022 when he led the final 42 laps to beat Chase Elliott by over five seconds and again in 2024 when he led 149 laps and swept the entire weekend by also winning the O’Reilly Series race on Saturday. He’s won or finished runner-up in three of the last five Cup races at the Magic Mile. Beyond the Cup level, Bell has won all four of his O’Reilly Auto Parts Series starts at Loudon plus a Truck Series win, giving him seven victories across 11 career starts at New Hampshire’s three national series.
Bell has seven runner-up finishes in 2026 without a win. Seven. The DraftKings analysts specifically say this is not the part of the season to bail on Bell and note that the short track summer swing is his stronghold. They also point out that it’s hard to determine Bell’s single best track because Iowa, Richmond, and New Hampshire all have legitimate claims to that title.
He’s the co-favorite at +400 on FanDuel and +550 on DraftKings. Every expert I’ve read this week has Bell near the top of their pick lists. He’s my pick to finally get his first win of the 2026 season at the track that suits him better than almost anywhere else on the schedule. He’s the anchor of the inside picks.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Denny Hamlin (1st in points, 969 pts, 4 wins)
Hamlin is a three-time New Hampshire winner with victories in 2007, 2012, and 2017. Only he, Logano with two wins, and Bell with two wins have hoisted trophies at this track among active Cup drivers. He’s the championship leader who has been in the top five in four consecutive races and he can clinch the number one seed in the Chase with 37 points this weekend.
The JGR flat track setup has been one of the best in the garage all season. JGR has won every single stage in all three Next Gen Cup races at New Hampshire and having both Bell and Hamlin as our inside picks at a track where JGR has led 73% of all laps raced in the current car gives us maximum Toyota coverage when it matters most. His three NHMS wins spanning ten years (2007, 2012, 2017) tell you the pace at this track has been consistent across multiple car generations.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Bubba Wallace (14th in points, 587 pts)
Wallace is the 23XI Racing teammate to our main driver Reddick and at a flat track where mechanical grip and handling matter more than raw speed, the shared setup data between the two 23XI Toyotas is a genuine competitive advantage.
He’s fighting for his playoff positioning at 14th in the standings with just two regular season races remaining. Every point matters for the No. 23 from this point forward and the 116-lap final stage gives his crew chief the opportunity to make strategic calls that can vault him up the finishing order. At +2200 the value is right for a driver with playoff urgency and strong teammate support.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Josh Berry (outside top 25 in standings, +5000)
This is the pick of the week and the track-specific data is genuinely impossible to ignore.
Josh Berry finished second at New Hampshire in 2025, 0.937 seconds behind Blaney. He finished third at New Hampshire in 2024. That’s back-to-back podium finishes at this exact track which is a better recent NHMS record than every single driver in the field except Bell and the two winners (Blaney and Hamlin). SportsLine experts specifically back Berry over Ty Gibbs this week at the Magic Mile.
At +5000 for a driver with consecutive second and third place finishes at this exact venue, the price doesn’t even come close to reflecting his New Hampshire credentials. This is one of the most undervalued outside picks we’ve had on the card all season. If Berry finishes in the top five again the pool value at that price is genuinely massive. He’s absolutely on the card.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Erik Jones (20th in points, 486 pts)
Jones has been one of the most improved drivers in the second half of the 2026 season with a second at Michigan and a sixth at Pocono among his strongest results. Legacy Motor Club has been steadily improving their program throughout the year and Jones arrives at New Hampshire with genuine confidence from that run of strong performances.
The Magic Mile rewards patience and consistency over 301 laps which suits the way Jones has been racing recently. At +3500 from outside the top 12 for a driver whose form has been trending in the right direction all summer the value is right. He’s the momentum dart on the card this week.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Ryan Blaney (+450) — Defending New Hampshire winner who led 116 laps last year. Inside the top 12 at 2nd. But his 2025 win was his only NHMS finish better than 18th in the entire Next Gen era. If you believe he can repeat, the credentials are there. If you respect the broader track record, approach with caution at the short price.
Joey Logano (+700) — Won at Richmond last week and has two wins in four races. Inside the top 12 at 9th. He won the 2025 NHMS pole at 130.622 mph and has been a factor at this track throughout his career. Strong form and strong credentials.
Kyle Larson (+800) — Inside the top 12 at 8th. Still winless in 2026. The NASCAR Gambling Podcast specifically asks if this will finally be his week. Phoenix and Gateway are the closest track comparisons to NHMS and Larson has been strong at both.
Chase Briscoe (+850) — Inside the top 12 at 5th. DraftKings analysts note that Richmond is Iowa’s closest comparable track and both are comparable to New Hampshire. His short track form has been one of the best in the field all season.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Brad Keselowski — I’ve been going back to the Keselowski well for the past three races and the results haven’t justified the repeated selection. The veteran short track narrative is real but the actual points production hasn’t matched the story we’ve been telling. Time to move in a different direction with our outside picks.
Carson Hocevar — New Hampshire’s flat layout and tire management demands reward experienced teams and veteran racecraft over raw aggression. The organizational gap at this track type is still significant.
William Byron — Inside the top 12 at 12th but his NHMS record hasn’t been consistently strong in the Gen 7 era. At his current price there’s better value elsewhere.
My Full Pool Card — Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Sunday, August 23, 2026 | 3:00 PM ET | USA Network | Loudon, New Hampshire
2 races before the Chase. 7 drivers clinched. 9 spots remaining. 116-lap final stage rewards tire management.
Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire
| # | Driver | Role | Odds | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | +900 | 5 wins in 2026, playoff spot clinched, SportsLine backs him in matchups, 23XI Toyota improving at flat tracks all season |
| 🏆 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | +500 | Two NHMS wins, won or runner-up in 3 of 5 visits, won all 3 Xfinity starts at Loudon, 7 runner-ups this season, due for a breakthrough |
| 🏆 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | +500 | Two-time NHMS winner, championship leader, 4 straight top-5 finishes, can clinch #1 Chase seed with 37 points, JGR flat track setup is elite |
| 🔥 | 23 | Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing • Toyota | Outside Top 12 | +2200 | 23XI teammate to Reddick, benefits from shared flat track setup data, consistent top-15 performer, fighting for playoff positioning |
| 🔥 | 21 | Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +5000 | Finished 2nd at NHMS in 2025 and 3rd in 2024, back-to-back podiums at this exact track, SportsLine experts specifically back him this week |
| 🔥 | 43 | Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club • Toyota | Outside Top 12 | +3500 | 4 finishes of 13th or better in last 6 races, 2nd at Michigan, 6th at Pocono, strong recent momentum at a generous price |
Odds via DraftKings/FanDuel as of August 19. Always bet responsibly.
Wrapping Up This Week's Picks Post For The Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
That’s the card everyone and I genuinely feel better about the outside picks this week than I have in a while. We’ve moved away from the Keselowski and Cindric selections that weren’t delivering the points we needed and replaced them with drivers who have genuine track-specific credentials and current form to back them up.
Reddick as our main driver looking for a bounce-back at a flat track. Bell as the inside anchor with the best active NHMS record in the field and seven runner-up finishes screaming for a win. Hamlin as the championship leader chasing the number one Chase seed at a track where he’s won twice. Wallace as the 23XI teammate play with genuine playoff urgency. Berry as the track-specific value pick with back-to-back NHMS podiums at +5000 which is genuinely one of the most compelling outside prices we’ve had all season. And Jones as the momentum pick riding the hottest form streak of his year.
The storyline of the weekend is obvious: can Christopher Bell finally get his first win of the 2026 season at the track that suits him better than almost anywhere else on the schedule? Seven runner-ups. Two NHMS Cup wins. Three O’Reilly wins at Loudon. Everything points to this being the week.
Practice and qualifying are tomorrow on USA Network. Green flag drops Sunday at 3:00 PM ET. I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full race recap. See you then everyone!
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
Author Profile
-
Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
If you love NASCAR and want more than surface level coverage, you’re in the right place.
Let’s get you closer to the action.
Latest entries
- September 18, 2026Betting PicksNASCAR Bristol 2026: My Picks, Best Bets & Pool Lineup for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race
- September 11, 2026Betting PicksNASCAR Gateway 2026: My Picks, Best Bets & Pool Lineup for the Enjoy Illinois 300
- September 5, 2026Betting PicksNASCAR Darlington 2026: My Picks, Best Bets & Pool Lineup for the Cook Out Southern 500
- August 28, 2026Betting PicksNASCAR Daytona 2026: My Picks, Best Bets & Pool Lineup for the Coke Zero Sugar 400
