Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles!
The Chase is four races deep and we’ve got Kansas on Sunday afternoon. Before we get into the card, let’s talk about what happened at Bristol because that was one of the wildest nights of the entire season.
Let’s get into this week’s picks post.
Joey Logano wins the Bass Pro Shops Night Race
That’s right race fans…Joey Logano won the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, taking the lead from Carson Hocevar with seven laps to go after a dramatic pass through traffic on Lap 494. It’s Logano’s third win of 2026 and it vaulted him to third in the Chase standings. Kyle Larson finished second, Hocevar third, Christopher Bell fourth, and Ty Gibbs fifth.
But the story everyone’s still talking about is the Hocevar and Blaney fight. With 41 laps left, Hocevar wrecked Blaney from behind while they raced for second. Blaney finished 33rd after leading a race-high 202 laps and winning Stage 2.
The two traded punches on pit road afterward, and when Hocevar stopped his car after finishing third, Blaney greeted him with a shove. NASCAR.com noted this week that both drivers head to Kansas “not far removed from their Bristol pit-road tussle,” so keep an eye on that.
There was also a genuinely moving moment. On Lap 18, fans across the grandstand held up yellow towels to honor Kyle Busch. That number meant something at that track.
Our card was a split night. Larson gave us a second with 45 laps led and a Stage 1 runner-up. Bell came home fourth after starting 12th. Byron finished ninth with Stage 2 points. Buescher was 13th after starting 23rd. But our main driver Tyler Reddick finished 18th and Jayski’s summary said flatly that he “struggled all night.” Zane Smith didn’t crack the top 10.
That’s three of six picks delivering real points, which isn’t bad, but Reddick going 25th and 18th in back-to-back weeks is the part that’s hurting us.
Here’s the good news: Kansas is exactly where that turns around.
Where the Chase Stands
Four races in, the top of this thing is absurdly tight:
| Pos | # | Driver | Pts | Wins | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2206 | 1 | Leader |
| 2 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2205 | 4 | -1 |
| 3 | 22 | Joey Logano Team Penske • Ford | 2190 | 3 | -16 |
| 4 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2189 | 1 | -17 |
| 5 | 54 | Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2164 | 2 | -42 |
| 6 | 12 | Ryan Blaney Team Penske • Ford | 2154 | 3 | -52 |
| 7 | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2145 | 5 | -61 |
| 8 | 77 | Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2121 | 1 | -85 |
| 9 | 19 | Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2119 | 1 | -87 |
| 10 | 23 | Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2114 | 0 | -92 |
| 11 | 2 | Austin Cindric Team Penske • Ford | 2090 | 0 | -116 |
| 12 | 9 | Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2089 | 2 | -117 |
| 13 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2085 | 0 | -121 |
| 14 | 60 | Ryan Preece RFK Racing • Ford | 2082 | 1 | -124 |
| 15 | 17 | Chris Buescher RFK Racing • Ford | 2082 | 0 | -124 |
| 16 | 7 | Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2072 | 1 | -134 |
One point separates Larson and Hamlin at the top. Logano and Bell are within 17. Reddick sits seventh at 61 back, which sounds like a lot until you remember a win is worth 55 points in this format. One Sunday fixes most of that.
The bottom six are all more than 115 points out with six races left. For Elliott, Byron, Preece, Buescher, and Suarez, the math has basically become win-or-nothing. That desperation is worth factoring into this week’s card, and I have.
Kansas Speedway
Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile asphalt tri-oval with 17 to 20 degrees of banking in the corners, 10 degrees on the frontstretch, and five on the backstretch. The Hollywood Casino 400 runs 267 laps for 400.5 miles. Stage 1 ends on Lap 80, Stage 2 on Lap 165, and the final stage is a long 102-lap run to the checkered flag.
That 102-lap closing stage is the whole ballgame. Tire fall-off and track position decide Kansas, and a stint that long means the cars that can still turn a lap on old rubber end up at the front when it matters.
Goodyear is bringing the same tires the Cup Series ran here in the spring, which is a meaningful advantage for teams that unloaded well in April. This is also the first of three straight 1.5-mile tracks, so whatever a team learns Sunday carries straight into Las Vegas and beyond.
Chase Elliott is the defending winner. Last September he made a final-lap pass to beat Denny Hamlin by 0.069 seconds for his second Kansas win and the 21st of his career. Chase Briscoe took that pole at 180.078 mph, and Hamlin led a race-high 159 laps and set the fastest lap without getting the trophy.
Thirty-six cars are entered. Practice and qualifying are Saturday at 10:00 AM and 11:10 AM ET. Green flag Sunday at 3:00 PM ET on USA Network, with radio on MRN and SiriusXM.
Let’s get into the card.
My Main Pick: Tyler Reddick (7th in Chase, 2145 pts, 5 wins)
Here’s why I’m not worried about the last two weeks: Reddick won at Kansas in April.
That’s not a top five or a lap-leader stat. That’s a win at this exact track, on the same tire compound Goodyear is bringing back this weekend. SportsLine noted this week that Reddick is “seeking his first win since that Kansas race in April,” which tells you the drought has a clean bookend available to it right here.
He’s seventh in the Chase at 61 points back with five wins, still the most of anyone in the field. Gateway and Bristol were both ugly, but Gateway had 18 cautions and ate half the Chase field alive, and Bristol is a concrete half-mile that has never been his best venue. Kansas is a 1.5-mile intermediate where the 23XI Toyota has been strong all year and where he has a trophy from five months ago.
The market has him at +650 alongside Bell. With a win worth 55 points, a Sunday like April puts him right back in this championship.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Denny Hamlin (2nd in Chase, 2205 pts, 4 wins)
Hamlin has four Kansas wins, the most of any active driver. That’s the single best track credential available on this board and it belongs to a guy sitting one point out of the Chase lead.
He was also the fastest car here last September. He led a race-high 159 laps and set the fastest lap of the race before Elliott stole it on the final lap by 0.069 seconds. That’s the kind of near-miss that tends to sharpen a team’s focus on the return trip.
He’s priced at +500 on TheSpread, second on the board behind Larson. Four wins at this track, the fastest car here a year ago, and a one-point deficit in the championship. That’s the anchor.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Chase Elliott (12th in Chase, 2089 pts, 2 wins)
This is the value play on the inside tier and the numbers behind it are genuinely striking.
Elliott is the defending Hollywood Casino 400 winner. He’s also the only driver in the field with a top 20 in each of the last eight Kansas races, and SportsLine points out that every one of those eight was actually a top 15. Eight straight top 15s at one track is the kind of floor you build a pool card around.
The SportsLine model is specifically high on him at +1600, which is a dramatically longer price than Larson or Hamlin for a driver who won this race last year. He’s 12th in the Chase at 117 points back, which means he has every reason to race for the win rather than manage a result.
Defending winner, best consistency record at the track of anyone entered, model backing, and a long price. That’s the pick.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Ross Chastain (non-Chase, 592 pts)
Chastain won the 2024 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas. That’s a victory at this exact event, and it’s the strongest track credential available anywhere outside the top 12 this week.
He’s not in the Chase field, and at Kansas that’s a genuine asset. There’s no points math, no championship calculus, no reason to settle for a clean 12th. He can run the long final stage flat out and take swings the Chase drivers can’t afford.
He also finished fifth at Gateway two weeks ago, so the speed hasn’t disappeared. A former winner of this race with nothing to lose is exactly the profile that’s worked for us on the outside tier all season.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: William Byron (13th in Chase, 2085 pts)
Byron finished second at the 2024 Hollywood Casino 400, behind only Chastain. He’s got a genuine result at this event in recent memory.
He also just delivered his best Chase race yet, coming home ninth at Bristol with Stage 2 points after a disastrous 37th at Darlington to open the postseason. The Hendrick intermediate program has been strong, and Larson’s presence at the top of the standings tells you exactly what that equipment can do on a mile and a half.
He’s 13th in the Chase at 121 points back with six races left. Top tens aren’t going to close that. He needs to go win one, and Kansas is a track where he’s already finished second.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Josh Berry (non-Chase, 501 pts)
Berry finished sixth at Bristol, the best run of any driver outside the Chase field that night. We had him on the card and he delivered, so we’re running it back.
He’s not in the championship picture, which means the Wood Brothers can call the race however they want. No stage-point management, no protecting position, no conservative pit strategy. Just race.
He’s the longest price on our card and he’s coming off a top-six run at one of the hardest tracks on the schedule. That’s the kind of form and freedom combination that’s produced our best outside-tier results this year.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Kyle Larson (+360 to +450 depending on your book) — The Chase points leader and a three-time Kansas winner who finished second here in the spring. He’s inside the top 12 at 1st and he’s the favorite on every board I checked. If you’d rather have the favorite than Elliott’s long price, nobody would argue with you. The only reason he’s not on my card is that Hamlin has more Kansas wins at a longer number.
Christopher Bell (+650) — Won the pole and led a race-high 122 laps at the 2024 Hollywood Casino 400. Inside the top 12 at 4th, just 17 points off the lead. SportsLine’s Bobbitt and Greco are backing Bell over Reddick in a head-to-head bet at -115 this week, which is worth knowing if you’re weighing those two.
Bubba Wallace (+1600) — Has back-to-back top fives at Kansas and SportsLine flags him as a longshot to target. He’s inside the top 12 at 10th so he can’t fill an outside slot, but that price for a driver with two straight top fives here is genuinely interesting.
Ryan Blaney — Led a race-high 202 laps at Bristol and won Stage 2 before Hocevar wrecked him. He’s 52 points back in sixth and he’s angry. That combination has produced some big Sundays from the No. 12 over the years.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Chase Briscoe — The SportsLine model is specifically fading him at +950, saying that despite only four drivers having shorter odds, he doesn’t even crack their top group. He also finished 27th at Bristol with a suspension issue. He won the pole here last fall so the qualifying speed is real, but I’ll take the model’s read.
Carson Hocevar — Third at Bristol and genuinely fast, but he’s heading to Kansas with a target on his back after the Blaney incident. Six races left in a format where every point carries forward is not the time to bet on a driver who might get raced dirty by half the garage.
Daniel Suarez — Last in the Chase at 134 points back. Kansas hasn’t been a standout venue for him and there are better outside-tier options at similar prices.
Chris Buescher — Tied with Preece at 124 back and coming off a 13th at Bristol after starting 23rd, so the recovery drive was solid. But I had him on the card last week and the return was modest, and I’d rather chase a genuine Kansas credential this time.
My Full Pool Card — Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway
Sunday, September 27, 2026 | 3:00 PM ET | USA Network | Kansas City, Kansas
Chase Race 4 of 10. 267 laps, 400.5 miles. Stages end Lap 80 and Lap 165, with a 102-lap final run. A win is worth 55 points.
Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas
| # | Driver | Role | Chase | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | 7th2145 pts | Won the spring Kansas race in April, his most recent trip to victory lane, and still leads the field with 5 wins on the season |
| 🏆 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | 2nd2205 pts | Four Kansas wins, the most of any active driver, led 159 laps and set the fastest lap here last fall before losing by 0.069 seconds |
| 🏆 | 9 | Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Inside Top 12 | 12th2089 pts | Defending Hollywood Casino 400 winner on a last-lap pass, only driver with a top 15 in each of the last eight Kansas races, SportsLine model pick |
| 🔥 | 1 | Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | Non-Chase592 pts | Won the 2024 Hollywood Casino 400 at this exact event, no championship math to manage so he can race flat out for the win |
| 🔥 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | 13th2085 pts | Finished 2nd at the 2024 Hollywood Casino 400, came home 9th at Bristol with Stage 2 points, 121 back and needs to swing for wins |
| 🔥 | 21 | Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | Non-Chase501 pts | Finished 6th at Bristol, the best run of any non-Chase driver, no points pressure and the longest price on the card |
Chase points current through Bristol. Check your book for live odds before betting.
Please always bet responsibly
Wrapping Up This Week's Picks Post For The Hollywood Casino 400
That’s the card and the logic is simple this week: every driver on it has a real, verifiable Kansas credential.
Reddick won here in April on the exact tire Goodyear is bringing back. Hamlin has four Kansas wins, more than anybody else entered, and was the fastest car here last fall. Elliott is the defending winner with eight straight top 15s at this track and a model backing him at a fraction of the favorite’s price. Chastain won this race in 2024 with zero championship pressure on him now. Byron finished second in that same 2024 race and needs a win to save his Chase. And Berry is coming off a sixth at Bristol with complete freedom to race.
Practice and qualifying are Saturday morning. Green flag Sunday at 3:00 PM ET on USA Network.
I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full recap. See you Sunday, everyone!
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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