Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles! It’s Friday and we’ve got race two of the Chase coming up Sunday afternoon at World Wide Technology Raceway just across the river from St. Louis. After what happened at Darlington last Sunday night, this championship battle has gotten a whole lot more interesting.
Let’s get into this week’s blog post.
What Happened at the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington
Let’s start with the big one. Christopher Bell finally did it. He won the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington, snapping a 33-race winless streak and claiming his first victory of 2026 after a record-breaking seven runner-up finishes during the regular season. He beat his JGR teammate Ty Gibbs by 1.038 seconds, led 46 laps, won Stage 2, and set the fastest lap of the race. It was the 14th win of his 243-race Cup career and honestly one of the more satisfying wins you’ll ever see given how many times he came up just short this year.
Our card had a genuinely strong night. Our main driver Tyler Reddick finished third, won Stage 1, and led 74 laps. Chase Briscoe came home sixth with 30 laps led. Bubba Wallace finished eighth with a second in Stage 1, a fourth in Stage 2, and 38 laps led. Three picks inside the top eight in the Chase opener is exactly the start we wanted.
The miss was Denny Hamlin. He was running third in both stages and led 68 laps before late contact with Michael McDowell caused toe-link damage and dropped him to 18th. That’s a painful result for the points leader but he still holds the top spot in the Chase standings. William Byron had a nightmare finishing 37th.
Where the Chase Stands After Darlington
Here’s the updated picture after Darlington:
| Pos | # | Driver | Pts | Wins | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2135 | 4 | Leader |
| 2 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2123 | 1 | -12 |
| 3 | 12 | Ryan Blaney Team Penske • Ford | 2119 | 3 | -16 |
| 4 | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2111 | 5 | -24 |
| 5 | 19 | Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2098 | 1 | -37 |
| 6 | 54 | Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2096 | 2 | -39 |
| 7 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2086 | 0 | -49 |
| 8 | 9 | Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2063 | 2 | -72 |
| 9 | 22 | Joey Logano Team Penske • Ford | 2063 | 2 | -72 |
| 10 | 23 | Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2054 | 0 | -81 |
| 11 | 17 | Chris Buescher RFK Racing • Ford | 2047 | 0 | -88 |
| 12 | 77 | Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2046 | 1 | -89 |
| 13 | 7 | Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2041 | 1 | -94 |
| 14 | 2 | Austin Cindric Team Penske • Ford | 2033 | 0 | -102 |
| 15 | 60 | Ryan Preece RFK Racing • Ford | 2031 | 1 | -104 |
| 16 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2021 | 0 | -114 |
Let's Get to This Week's Race The Enjoy Illinois 300
The World Wide Technology Raceway is a 1.25-mile egg-shaped oval with uneven banking. Turns 1 and 2 carry 11 degrees while Turns 3 and 4 sit at nine degrees. That means the two ends of the track drive completely differently and setups become a genuine compromise. Turns 1 and 2 are narrower with more banking. Turns 3 and 4 are wider and flatter. The track is fairly flat overall and even though it isn’t classified as a short track, it races like one.
The racing groove is another key factor. Where Darlington favored the high side, Gateway generally sees drivers ride the low line on fresh tires and move up as tires start to break down. Goodyear brings back the same tire combination used here last September and their lead engineer has described this track as unique in the heat and stress it puts on tires.
The Enjoy Illinois 300 runs 240 laps for 300 miles with stages ending on Laps 45, 140, and 240. Green flag is at 3:00 PM ET Sunday on USA Network.
Here’s the stat that shapes this week’s card: four different drivers have won the four Cup races held here. Joey Logano won the inaugural 2022 race. Kyle Busch won in 2023 in what turned out to be the final Cup victory of his career. Team Penske has won two of the four Cup races at this track. And Denny Hamlin won last year’s edition, starting from the pole, leading 75 laps, and finishing ahead of Briscoe, Elliott, Blaney, and Logano.
Let’s get into the card.
My Main Pick: Tyler Reddick (4th in Chase, 2111 pts, 5 wins)
Reddick is our locked-in main driver and he could not have asked for a better start to the Chase. Third at Darlington with a Stage 1 win and 74 laps led. He was genuinely one of the fastest cars all night at a track where speed matters enormously and he collected meaningful stage points on top of the strong finish.
Gateway is a different challenge from Darlington but the 23XI Racing Toyota has been competitive across nearly every track type in 2026. The flat, egg-shaped layout demands the kind of car control and corner-entry precision that Reddick showed off at Darlington riding the wall. He sits 24 points behind Hamlin in the Chase and a strong Gateway result would put him right in the thick of the championship fight heading to Bristol next weekend.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Ryan Blaney (3rd in Chase, 2119 pts, 3 wins)
ScoresAndStats has Blaney as their prediction to win at Gateway this week and the reasoning is genuinely strong. Team Penske has won two of the four Cup races held at this 1.25-mile track. Blaney nearly won the 2024 edition before running out of fuel on the final lap, which is about as close as you can come without getting the trophy. He returned last season and finished fourth.
His strength on short, flat tracks is one of the defining characteristics of his career and Gateway races like a short track despite the 1.25-mile length. He finished fourth at Darlington after starting 24th, collecting stage points in both segments along the way. He’s third in the Chase and just 16 points behind Hamlin. At +450 with the track history, team history, and current form all pointing the same direction, he’s the anchor of the card.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Denny Hamlin (1st in Chase, 2135 pts, 4 wins)
Hamlin is the defending Enjoy Illinois 300 winner. He started from the pole last year, led 75 laps, and beat Briscoe, Elliott, Blaney, and Logano to the line. That’s a dominant performance at a track where four different drivers have won four races, which tells you Gateway hasn’t had a repeat winner yet.
He had a frustrating Darlington. He ran third in both stages and led 68 laps before contact with McDowell caused toe-link damage and relegated him to 18th. That’s the kind of result that stings when you’re the points leader but he still holds the top spot in the Chase standings and the speed was clearly there all night. The bounce-back spot at a track he won last year is exactly where you want your inside anchor.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Austin Cindric (14th in Chase, 2033 pts)
Predictem highlights Cindric as one of their three headline picks for the Enjoy Illinois 300 this week and the case makes sense on multiple levels. He drives for Team Penske which has won two of the four Cup races at this track. That organizational knowledge of the Gateway setup is genuinely valuable at a venue where the uneven banking makes the setup a compromise between two very different ends of the track.
He finished 13th at Darlington and collected points in both Stage 1 and Stage 2 which is a solid, clean opening to his Chase. He’s 14th in the standings and 102 points behind Hamlin which means he needs results in a hurry under a format with no resets. That urgency combined with Penske’s Gateway track record makes him a compelling outside pick.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Ryan Preece (15th in Chase, 2031 pts, 1 win)
Preece finished 10th at Darlington and picked up Stage 1 points along the way, which is a genuinely encouraging Chase debut for a driver most people wrote off after he squeaked into the field. Remember, he won at Daytona by 0.024 seconds on the last lap for his first career Cup victory after battling back from fender damage in Stage 1. That kind of grit is exactly what you want in a driver at a track like Gateway.
Gateway races like a short track and Preece’s flat-track racecraft has been one of the more underrated aspects of his 2026 season. He’s 15th in the Chase and needs points badly. At the price he’ll carry from outside the top 12, a top-ten result would be strong pool value.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Josh Berry (non-Chase, +5000)
Berry is the third of Predictem’s headline picks this week alongside Larson and Cindric. We had him on the card at New Hampshire for exactly this reason and the flat-track credentials are genuinely real. He finished second at New Hampshire in 2025 and third in 2024, back-to-back podiums at a track that shares a lot of DNA with Gateway in terms of flat corners, mechanical grip, and tire management demands.
He’s not in the Chase field which means there’s zero championship pressure on the Wood Brothers Ford. He can race freely for the outright win without any strategic calculations about points. At +5000 with expert backing and a proven flat-track record, the value is strong. He’s the dart of the week.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Christopher Bell (+400) — The Darlington winner and the betting favorite this week after closing to within 12 points of Hamlin. He finished inside the top 10 here last year. Inside the top 12 at 2nd. The momentum from snapping a 33-race drought is genuinely real and if you want to swap him in for one of our inside picks the case is strong.
Joey Logano (+650) — Won the inaugural 2022 Cup race at Gateway and finished fifth here last year. ScoresAndStats calls him the preferred Gateway longshot at +1800 or better if that price becomes available. Inside the top 12 at 9th. His track record here is as good as anyone’s.
Kyle Larson (+750) — Predictem’s top headline pick this week. Led a race-high 99 laps at Darlington and finished fifth. Inside the top 12 at 7th. Still winless in 2026 which is genuinely hard to believe given how fast he’s been.
Chase Briscoe (+1000) — Finished second here in 2025 behind Hamlin and came home sixth at Darlington with 30 laps led. Inside the top 12 at 5th. JGR’s setup knowledge benefits him directly.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
William Byron — Finished 37th at Darlington after running ninth in Stage 1, which dropped him to 16th and last in the Chase standings at 114 points back. The Hendrick equipment is strong but that kind of result in a format with no resets is genuinely difficult to recover from and I want to see a clean race before putting him back on the card.
Chris Buescher — Started 35th at Darlington, hit the wall multiple times, and finished 20th with toe-link damage. The RFK Racing intermediate program has been solid but Gateway’s unique layout and his rough Chase opener make him a hold this week.
Daniel Suarez — Finished 21st at Darlington and sits 13th in the Chase. Gateway hasn’t been a particularly strong venue for him and there are better options at similar prices in the outside tier.
AJ Allmendinger — Listed at +30000 which tells you everything about where the market has him on a flat oval. His strengths are road courses and this is the opposite of that skill set.
My Full Pool Card — Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway
Sunday, September 13, 2026 | 3:00 PM ET | USA Network | Madison, Illinois
Chase Race 2. 240 laps, 300 miles. Four different winners in four Cup races here. No resets, every point counts.
Enjoy Illinois 300 at Gateway
| # | Driver | Role | Odds | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | +1200 | 3rd at Darlington with a Stage 1 win and 74 laps led, 5 wins in 2026, 4th in the Chase, carrying real momentum into race two |
| 🏆 | 12 | Ryan Blaney Team Penske • Ford | Inside Top 12 | +450 | ScoresAndStats pick to win, Penske has won 2 of 4 Cup races here, nearly won 2024 before running out of fuel, 4th in 2025, 4th at Darlington |
| 🏆 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | +500 | Defending Gateway winner, started on pole and led 75 laps in 2025, Chase points leader, bounce-back spot after 18th at Darlington |
| 🔥 | 2 | Austin Cindric Team Penske • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +2500 | Predictem headline pick this week, Penske equipment at a track Penske has won twice, 13th at Darlington with Stage 1 and Stage 2 points |
| 🔥 | 60 | Ryan Preece RFK Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +4000 | 10th at Darlington with Stage 1 points, won at Daytona for his first career Cup victory, genuine momentum and flat-track racecraft |
| 🔥 | 21 | Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +5000 | Predictem headline pick, strong flat-track record with back-to-back New Hampshire podiums, Ford alliance with the Penske camp |
Odds via DraftKings as of September 11. Always bet responsibly.
Wrapping Up This Week's Picks Post For the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway
That’s the card everyone and I feel good about how it’s built for a flat, tricky 1.25-mile oval where setup compromise and tire management decide the outcome.
Reddick as our main driver riding genuine Chase momentum after a third at Darlington with a stage win. Blaney as the expert-backed pick from the organization that has won half the Cup races ever held at this track. Hamlin as the defending Gateway winner in a bounce-back spot after Darlington’s late damage. Cindric with Penske equipment and Predictem’s endorsement. Preece with real momentum and the flat-track skills that suit this place. And Berry as the no-pressure value dart with proven flat-track credentials.
Practice and qualifying are Saturday on USA Network. Green flag drops Sunday at 3:10 PM ET.
I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full race recap. See you then everyone!
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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