Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles! It’s early Friday morning here on the East Coast and we’ve got a Saturday night under the lights at Bristol coming up, which is one of the best nights on the entire NASCAR calendar. Before we get into the card, I need to be straight with you about last week because Gateway was rough.
Let’s get into this week’s blog post.
Kyle Larson wins the Enjoy Illinois 300
That’s right folks, Kyle Larson won the Enjoy Illinois 300 in double overtime, breaking a 51-race winless drought that stretched all the way back to Kansas in May of 2025. He led 80 laps, won Stage 2, and held off Alex Bowman by 0.333 seconds on a succession of late restarts. Pole winner Joey Logano led a race-high 96 laps and came home third, and William Byron made it three Hendrick cars in the top four. Ross Chastain rounded out the top five.
It was chaos. A track-record 18 cautions for 87 caution laps, two late red flags for cleanup, and brake rotors literally exploding through car bodies. That’s the most cautions in a Cup race since the 2022 Coca-Cola 600.
Our card got caught in all of it. Our main driver Tyler Reddick finished 25th. Ryan Blaney finished 35th with a brake failure. Denny Hamlin salvaged ninth after a problematic pit stop on Lap 199. It was the kind of week where the picks were sound and the race simply ate everyone alive. Chase Briscoe finished 32nd and Chase Elliott 31st in the same wreckfest, so we were far from alone.
The good news is that Bristol is a completely different animal and we’ve got a card built around drivers with real, verifiable history at this track.
Before Anything Else: Bristol and Kyle Busch
This is Bristol’s first Cup Series night race since we lost Kyle Busch in May. Busch won 23 NASCAR national series races at Bristol Motor Speedway, more than any driver in the history of this track. Nobody owned that concrete half-mile the way he did.
Saturday night is going to feel different in that grandstand. It should.
Where the Chase Stands
Here’s the picture heading into race three of ten:
| Pos | # | Driver | Pts | Wins | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2168 | 4 | Leader |
| 2 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2159 | 1 | -9 |
| 3 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2150 | 1 | -18 |
| 4 | 12 | Ryan Blaney Team Penske • Ford | 2135 | 3 | -33 |
| 5 | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2126 | 5 | -42 |
| 6 | 54 | Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2117 | 2 | -51 |
| 7 | 22 | Joey Logano Team Penske • Ford | 2117 | 2 | -51 |
| 8 | 19 | Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2109 | 1 | -59 |
| 9 | 77 | Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2080 | 1 | -88 |
| 10 | 23 | Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2078 | 0 | -90 |
| 11 | 9 | Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2075 | 2 | -93 |
| 12 | 2 | Austin Cindric Team Penske • Ford | 2060 | 0 | -108 |
| 13 | 17 | Chris Buescher RFK Racing • Ford | 2057 | 0 | -111 |
| 14 | 60 | Ryan Preece RFK Racing • Ford | 2055 | 1 | -113 |
| 15 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2054 | 0 | -114 |
| 16 | 7 | Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2049 | 1 | -119 |
Hamlin still leads but Larson closed to within nine points with the Gateway win. The top five are separated by 42 points and the bottom five are all more than 100 points out and genuinely losing touch. With eight races left and no elimination rounds, those gaps matter more every single week.
One format note worth understanding: a win in this Chase is worth 55 points. That’s a meaningful swing, and it means a driver outside the top five can still climb fast with a victory. Byron at 114 points back is not out of it, but he needs wins, not top tens.
Also important for our card: Bubba Wallace has climbed to 10th and Austin Cindric to 12th, which means both are now inside the top 12 and unavailable for our outside slots. The outside tier this week starts with Buescher at 13th.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race At Bristol Motor Speedway
Bristol Motor Speedway is a 0.533-mile concrete oval with 24 to 28 degrees of banking in the corners and 4 to 8 degrees on the straights. The Cup cars run 500 laps for 266.5 miles. Stage 1 ends on Lap 125 and Stage 2 on Lap 250.
Goodyear is running back the same tire combination used in the April race here. That April race produced a winner who was not the fastest car, which tells you something important about how this place plays. Track position and tire management decide Bristol more than raw speed does.
We saw exactly that in April. Ty Gibbs won his first career Cup race by holding track position and refusing to give it up. When Chase Elliott spun to bring out the eighth caution, Gibbs told his crew chief he didn’t want to surrender track position at all. He restarted in the lead on Lap 486, held it through a ninth caution into overtime, and beat Ryan Blaney to the line by 0.055 seconds. That was the closest margin at Bristol since Rusty Wallace beat Ernie Irvan by one foot in April of 1991.
Meanwhile Kyle Larson led 284 of 505 laps that day, swept both stages, and finished third. Fastest car, no trophy. That’s Bristol.
Green flag is Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on USA Network, with radio on PRN and SiriusXM. Thirty-seven drivers are entered. Let’s get into the card.
My Main Pick: Tyler Reddick (5th in Chase, 2126 pts, 5 wins)
Reddick is locked in as our main driver and Bristol is a genuine bounce-back opportunity after the Gateway disaster. He finished fourth in the April race here, running right behind Gibbs, Blaney, and Larson in a race that came down to an overtime restart. That’s a top-five at this exact track with this exact tire combination, which is about as relevant as track history gets.
He’s fifth in the Chase, 42 points behind Hamlin, and sitting on five wins which is still the most of anyone in the field. The 25th at Gateway was ugly but it came in a race with 18 cautions where half the Chase field got collected in something. The speed hasn’t gone anywhere.
With a win worth 55 points under this format, one strong Saturday night puts him right back in the middle of this championship fight.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Kyle Larson (2nd in Chase, 2159 pts, 1 win)
DraftKings has Larson as the race favorite at +400 and the Bristol résumé absolutely justifies it.
He has three Cup wins at Bristol. He won the 2021 night race leading 175 laps. He won the 2024 night race leading 462 of 500 laps, which is one of the most dominant performances at any track in recent memory. He won the 2025 spring race leading 411 of 500 laps.
In April he led a race-high 284 laps, swept both stages for the third time in his career at this track, and became just the ninth driver in NASCAR history to surpass 2,000 career laps led at Bristol. He finished third only because of how the late cautions and track position shook out.
Now add that he just snapped a 51-race winless drought at Gateway and moved to within nine points of the Chase lead. The confidence is back, the equipment is clearly right, and he’s heading to the track where he’s led more laps than almost anyone alive. He’s the anchor.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Christopher Bell (3rd in Chase, 2150 pts, 1 win)
Bell is the defending Bass Pro Shops Night Race winner. He won this exact race last September, with Brad Keselowski second and Zane Smith third.
He also won the pole and led a race-high 187 laps here in 2023, and he won the 2023 Food City Dirt Race at this track. His Bristol body of work is genuinely deep.
Right now he’s carrying momentum too. He opened the Chase by winning the Southern 500 at Darlington, snapping a 33-race winless streak after seven runner-up finishes in the regular season. He had a quiet 19th at Gateway in the chaos but sits third in the Chase, 18 points off Hamlin.
He’s listed among the top three favorites on DraftKings alongside Larson and Hamlin, all at +550 or better. Having both the defending winner and the track’s most dominant lap-leader as our inside picks gives us the two strongest Bristol profiles in the field.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Chris Buescher (13th in Chase, 2057 pts)
Buescher won the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol, leading 169 laps in the process. That’s a win at this exact event and it’s the strongest track-specific credential available anywhere outside the top 12 this week.
He’s 13th in the Chase at 111 points back after a brake failure ended his Gateway night, which puts him in the group Jayski described as losing touch with the top contenders. That’s real urgency. With eight races left and a win worth 55 points, Buescher genuinely needs to go for it, and he’s at a track where he already knows how to win.
RFK Racing’s short track program has been steady all season and Bristol rewards exactly the kind of patient, track-position-first approach that produced his 2022 victory here.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: William Byron (15th in Chase, 2054 pts)
Byron finished fourth at Gateway last Sunday as Hendrick Motorsports put three cars inside the top four. That’s the same organization whose cars have been flat-out dominant at Bristol, and Byron is driving the same equipment Larson has used to lead over 2,000 career laps at this track.
He’s 15th in the Chase at 114 points back, which is a hole he can’t climb out of with top tens. He needs wins. That kind of desperation at a track where his team has a genuine equipment advantage is exactly the setup that produces a surprise outside-tier result.
He had a nightmare 37th at Darlington to open the Chase, so the fourth at Gateway matters as evidence that the No. 24 has found speed again at the right moment.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Zane Smith (non-Chase, 468 pts)
Smith finished third in this race last year, behind Bell and Keselowski. A podium at the Bass Pro Shops Night Race is a legitimate credential and the market consistently underrates it because of where he sits in the standings.
He’s not in the Chase field, which is actually an advantage here. There’s no points math to manage, no championship calculus, no reason to ride around protecting a position. He can race flat out for 500 laps and take swings that Chase drivers can’t afford to take.
He’s the longest price on our card and the one with a genuine Bristol podium to point at. That’s the kind of value we’ve been chasing on the outside tier all season and it’s worked more often than not.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Denny Hamlin — Won the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race and leads the Chase by nine points. He’s a top-three favorite at +550 or better. He’s inside the top 12 at 1st so he can’t fill an outside slot, but if you want to swap him for one of our inside picks the credentials are obviously there.
Ty Gibbs — Won the April race here for his first career Cup victory and led a race-high 201 laps in last year’s night race. Inside the top 12 at 6th. Nobody in the field has a better recent Bristol trend line than Gibbs and he’s genuinely underpriced relative to Larson and Bell.
Brad Keselowski — Finished second in this race last year. I’ll be honest with you, I’ve leaned on Keselowski too often this season and the results haven’t matched the story I was telling. But a runner-up at this exact event is a real credential, not a narrative, and at his price he’s worth a look if you want a deep dart.
AJ Allmendinger — Won the pole and set the fastest lap in last year’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race, and also set the fastest lap in the 2025 spring race here. At a track where qualifying and track position matter enormously, that’s a meaningful skill. He’s well outside the Chase which means long odds.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Ryan Blaney — Won the pole and set the fastest lap in April before finishing second to Gibbs by 0.055 seconds, so the speed is undeniable. But he’s had brake failures and wrecks in back-to-back weeks and I want to see the No. 12 finish a race cleanly before putting him back on the card.
Chase Elliott — Spun in April to bring out the caution that set up the Gibbs win, then finished 31st at Gateway. He’s 11th in the Chase at 93 points back and the form just isn’t there right now.
Daniel Suarez — Sits 16th and last in the Chase at 119 points back. Bristol hasn’t been a strong venue for him and there are better options at similar prices in the outside tier.
Carson Hocevar — He did earn points in both stages in April and picked up his second career top-10 at Bristol, so the raw ability is real. But he’s inside the top 12 at 9th and his aggressive style on a concrete half-mile with 500 laps of beating and banging is a genuine risk in a format where every point carries forward.
My Full Pool Card — Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway
Saturday, September 19, 2026 | 7:30 PM ET | USA Network | Bristol, Tennessee
Chase Race 3 of 10. 500 laps, 266.5 miles. Stages end Lap 125 and Lap 250. A win is worth 55 points.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol
| # | Driver | Role | Chase | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | 5th2126 pts | Finished 4th at Bristol in April, 5 wins in 2026, needs a reset after a rough Gateway, short track racecraft has been solid all year |
| 🏆 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Inside Top 12 | 2nd2159 pts | Race favorite at +400, three Bristol Cup wins, led a race-high 284 laps and swept both stages in April, 9th driver ever past 2,000 laps led here |
| 🏆 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | 3rd2150 pts | Defending Bass Pro Shops Night Race winner, won the Chase opener at Darlington, 2023 Bristol pole with 187 laps led, top-three favorite |
| 🔥 | 17 | Chris Buescher RFK Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | 13th2057 pts | Won the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race leading 169 laps, genuine winner's credential at this exact event, needs points badly after a brake failure at Gateway |
| 🔥 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | 15th2054 pts | Finished 4th at Gateway as Hendrick put three cars in the top four, same equipment Larson has dominated Bristol with, 114 points back and needs a big night |
| 🔥 | 38 | Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports • Ford | Outside Top 12 | Non-Chase468 pts | Finished 3rd at this race last year, no championship pressure so he can race flat out, longest price of anyone on the card with a genuine Bristol podium |
Chase points current through Gateway. Check your book for live odds before betting. Always bet responsibly.
Wrapping Up This Week's Picks Post For The Bass Pro Shops Night Race
That’s the card and I feel good about it after a week that beat us up. Every driver on here has something concrete at Bristol: a win at this event, a podium at this event, a top-five in April, or the equipment that’s led thousands of laps around this place.
Reddick as our main driver with a fourth-place run here five months ago on the same tire. Larson as the favorite with three Bristol wins and a fresh victory in his pocket. Bell as the defending night race winner who already won a Chase race this year. Buescher with a 2022 win at this exact event and nothing left to lose. Byron in the hottest equipment in the garage and 114 points of motivation. And Zane Smith with a Bristol podium and complete freedom to race for it.
Make sure to Check your book for live lines.
Practice and qualifying are Friday night. Green flag Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on USA Network.
I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full recap. See you Saturday night, everyone!
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
If you love NASCAR and want more than surface level coverage, you’re in the right place.
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