Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles! Happy Fourth of July weekend and welcome to one of the most anticipated race weekends of the entire 2026 season. Before we get into the picks for Chicagoland I’ve got a big announcement to make about our pool card going forward.
Let’s get into this week’s picks post.
The Big Switch: Reddick Replaces Bell as Our Main Driver
We’ve reached the midway point of the 2026 season and the pool rules allow us to change our main driver for the second half. After a lot of analysis and a genuinely difficult decision, I’m switching from Christopher Bell to Tyler Reddick as our locked-in main driver for the remaining 18 races.
Let me explain why.
Bell has been fast this season. There’s absolutely no question about that. He finished second at Charlotte with a Stage 3 win, second at Nashville leading 27 laps, and collected 18 stage points at Sonoma to finish fifth. The JGR car has been genuinely competitive at multiple track types. But the results tell a different story than the speed.
In 18 races Bell has zero wins, sits 10th in the standings with 472 points, and has multiple DNFs from crashes at Michigan and Texas plus the San Diego exit due to his fractured wrist. He’s been in position to win at Kansas, Texas, Nashville, and Pocono and something has gone wrong every single time.
So why Reddick over Hamlin?
Here’s my thinking. Most pool players in my league are probably going to look at the standings, see Hamlin leading by 1 point with four wins in his last five oval races, and lock him in as their main driver. That means having Hamlin doesn’t give me a competitive edge in the pool because half the players will have the same pick. You need differentiation to win a pool over 18 races.
Reddick gives us that differentiation while still being one of the two best drivers in the field.
Here’s why:
Five wins in 2026. That’s the most of any driver in the field. Five wins in the first nine races was one of the most historic starts to a season NASCAR has seen in decades. When the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota is running right, there is no faster car in the garage. Period.
The highest ceiling in NASCAR. When Reddick wins he tends to dominate. He led 119 laps at the Coca-Cola 600. He won five of the first nine races of the season. The ceiling on any given Sunday is a dominant win with maximum stage points and that’s exactly what you want from your locked-in main driver.
The mechanical issues are fixable. Yes, Reddick has had three finishes of 25th or worse in his last four races due to mechanical failures. That’s a genuine concern and I’m not going to pretend it isn’t. But mechanical reliability is something teams can fix over a break in the schedule. The talent and the car speed are not things you can fix. You either have them or you don’t. Reddick has both.
The contrarian play. While everyone else locks in Hamlin, we lock in Reddick. On the weeks where Reddick finishes ahead of Hamlin (which has happened multiple times this season) every other pool player who chose Hamlin loses ground to us. Over 18 races that differentiation adds up in a way that matters.
We still have Hamlin on the card as an inside top 12 pick which means we’re collecting his points too. We just don’t have him as the locked-in main driver that everyone else does. That’s the edge.
Let’s ride with Reddick for the second half. Here we go.
This week's race at Chicagoland Speedway
The eero 400 marks NASCAR’s long-awaited return to Chicagoland Speedway for the first time in seven years. The Cup Series hasn’t raced at the 1.5-mile tri-oval in Joliet, Illinois since 2019 when Alex Bowman won the last race at this track, holding off Kyle Larson and Joey Logano for his first career Cup Series victory.
Chicagoland is a fast 1.5-mile tri-oval with 18 degrees of banking in the corners, 11 degrees on the frontstretch, and 5 degrees on the backstretch. The wide racing surface rewards momentum, aerodynamic efficiency, and tire management. Because the track hasn’t hosted a Cup race since 2019, teams have very little Next Gen data to rely on, making Saturday practice and qualifying more important than usual this weekend.
Goodyear is bringing the same tire setup that was used at Nashville Superspeedway which should give teams a familiar starting point. The race runs 267 laps across 400 miles. Green flag drops at 6:00 PM ET on TNT.
Quick recap of Sonoma last week. SVG won his eighth career road course race holding off Briscoe by 0.357 seconds. Bell finished fifth with 18 stage points which was a genuinely solid result given the wrist situation. Reddick had a power steering issue and finished 36th which was painful. But road courses are done for the regular season now and we’re heading into an all-oval summer stretch which is exactly where Reddick’s strengths show up most consistently.
Let’s get into the card.
My New Main Pick: Tyler Reddick (2nd in points, 718 pts, 5 wins)
The new era begins. Tyler Reddick is our main driver for the second half of the 2026 season and I genuinely couldn’t be more excited about where this card is going.
Five wins in 2026. The most of any driver in the field. He won at Daytona, won at Kansas on a very similar 1.5-mile surface to Chicagoland, and has been the fastest car in the garage most weeks this season. The 23XI Racing Toyota has led more laps and produced more dominant race-winning performances than any other car in the field in 2026.
Yes, the recent mechanical issues are real. But the team has had the break between Sonoma and Chicagoland to address those reliability concerns and the return to a 1.5-mile intermediate oval is exactly the kind of track where Reddick has been at his absolute best this season. He won at Kansas leading from the front and controlling the race. Chicagoland’s 1.5-mile layout, 18-degree banking, and emphasis on tire management all mirror what he dominated at Kansas in April.
The market has him at +550 on DraftKings. For the driver with the most wins in 2026 at a track that matches his strongest venue type, that’s a price I’m very happy to take. He’s our guy for the next 18 races.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Denny Hamlin (1st in points, 719 pts, 4 wins)
Hamlin is the race favorite at +320 and there’s a genuinely strong case for why he deserves that status. He’s won four of the last five oval races (Nashville, Michigan, Pocono). His 4.6 average finish on intermediate ovals in 2026 is the best of any driver in the field. He won at Chicagoland in 2015 and has a 50% top-ten rate at this track across 14 career starts.
He just took over the championship lead by 1 point over our main driver Reddick and the motivation heading into a track where he’s a former winner is absolutely real. Having both Reddick as our main driver and Hamlin as our inside anchor means we’re collecting points from the two best drivers in the championship race every single week. If Reddick wins we get maximum main driver points. If Hamlin wins we still collect from our inside pick. Either way we win. He’s the anchor.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Kyle Larson (5th in points, 571 pts)
Larson finished second in each of Chicagoland’s last two Cup Series races in 2018 and 2019. That is the strongest recent Chicagoland track record of any driver in the field and multiple analysts identify him as the top threat to Hamlin this week.
He’s on a streak of four straight top-five finishes showing the kind of consistency that makes him a genuinely reliable inside pick for total points. The No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet has been one of the fastest cars on intermediate ovals throughout 2026 and he’s led nearly 300 laps on the season. He’s still looking for his first win of the 2026 season and a track where he’s finished second twice in a row feels like a very strong candidate for the breakthrough. He’s on the card.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Bubba Wallace (13th in points, 444 pts)
Wallace finished third at Michigan on the 23XI Racing Toyota and has been one of our most successful outside picks over the past month. Here’s the bonus of having Reddick as our main driver: Wallace is his 23XI Racing teammate and benefits directly from the same setup data and manufacturer notes that make the No. 45 so fast.
At Chicagoland specifically the wide racing surface and the emphasis on aerodynamic efficiency should suit the No. 23 well. Wallace has been consistently finding speed at intermediate ovals in 2026 and the teammate connection to Reddick is a genuine competitive advantage that not many other outside picks can claim. At +2200 the value is there for a driver whose equipment is directly tied to our main driver’s race-winning car.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Brad Keselowski (18th in points, 376 pts)
Predictem specifically highlights Keselowski as one of their three headline picks for the eero 400 and the case is built around his Chicagoland history.
Keselowski won at Chicagoland Speedway in 2017 and has genuine winner’s credentials at this specific venue. RFK Racing’s intermediate oval pace has been strong throughout the 2026 season with teammate Buescher consistently running inside the top ten at 1.5-mile tracks. That organizational setup knowledge benefits Keselowski directly and a return to a track where he’s won before could be exactly the spark his season needs.
At +2500 for a former Chicagoland winner backed by expert analysis the value is genuinely compelling. He’s on the card.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Erik Jones (17th in points, 389 pts)
Jones has four finishes of 13th or better in his last six races including a second at Michigan and a sixth at Pocono. That kind of sustained momentum from a driver sitting outside the top 12 in the standings is exactly what we want from an outside pick in a pool format.
At +5500 the price reflects his 17th-place standing in the points rather than his recent form. He’s been one of the hottest drivers in the field over the past month and Legacy Motor Club has been steadily improving their intermediate oval program throughout 2026. Chicagoland’s wide racing surface and multi-groove layout should suit a driver who has been consistently working through the field in recent weeks. He’s the value dart this week.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Christopher Bell (+850) — Our former main driver is still a strong pool asset. He has a 60% top-ten rate on intermediate ovals in 2026 with 258 laps led across the season. The wrist is improving and JGR’s intermediate setup is one of the best in the garage. He’s inside the top 12 at 10th in standings and absolutely worth considering for your own lineup.
Chase Briscoe (+1200) — Now inside the top 12 at 11th in standings. Has four top-tens in six starts on mid-sized ovals in 2026. The No. 19 JGR Toyota has been a genuine force on intermediates and he finished second at Sonoma last week. Worth watching closely this weekend.
Alex Bowman (+7000) — Won the last Cup race at Chicagoland in 2019. At that price the defending Chicagoland winner is a fascinating longshot dart if you want to go deep on your own card.
Zane Smith (+8000) — Six top-ten finishes this season, more than any other driver outside the top 16. Finished ninth at Nashville and led 31 laps at Charlotte. Strong value at a long price.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Shane Van Gisbergen — Dominant at road courses but the oval learning curve continues. With road courses done for the regular season SVG needs to prove his intermediate oval pace before he gets a pool spot at 1.5-mile tracks.
Carson Hocevar — Has not finished in the top ten in his last three races and the Spire Motorsports intermediate oval program hasn’t consistently produced results at 1.5-mile tracks. The talent is undeniable but the equipment gap at this track type is real.
Ross Chastain — Showed flashes at Pocono with an eighth-place finish but the consistency hasn’t been there in 2026. At a brand new Chicagoland where nobody has Gen 7 data the unpredictability works against drivers who have been up and down all season.
My Full Pool Card — eero 400 at Chicagoland Speedway
Sunday, July 5, 2026 | 6:00 PM ET | TNT | Joliet, Illinois
First Cup race at Chicagoland since 2019. New main driver Tyler Reddick begins the second half of the season.
eero 400 at Chicagoland
| # | Driver | Role | Odds | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | +550 | NEW main driver for 2nd half, 5 wins (most in 2026), won at Kansas on similar 1.5-mile surface, highest ceiling in the field |
| 🏆 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | +320 | Points leader, 4.6 avg finish on intermediates in 2026, won Chicagoland 2015, won 4 of last 5 ovals, the race favorite |
| 🏆 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Inside Top 12 | +600 | Finished 2nd in each of Chicagoland's last two races, 4 straight top fives, top threat per analysts, desperate for first 2026 win |
| 🔥 | 23 | Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing • Toyota | Outside Top 12 | +2200 | 23XI Racing Toyota strong on intermediates, 3rd at Michigan, benefits directly from Reddick's intermediate setup data as teammates |
| 🔥 | 6 | Brad Keselowski RFK Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +2500 | Won at Chicagoland in 2017, Predictem headline pick this week, RFK intermediate pace has been strong all season |
| 🔥 | 43 | Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club • Toyota | Outside Top 12 | +5500 | 4 finishes of 13th or better in last 6 races, 2nd at Michigan, 6th at Pocono, strong momentum at a generous price |
Odds via DraftKings as of July 2. Always bet responsibly.
Wrapping Up This Week's Picks Post For The eero 400 At Chicagoland
That’s the card everyone and it marks the start of a new era for Driving on Marbles. Reddick as our contrarian main driver gives us the highest ceiling in the field while most other pool players will probably lock in Hamlin. We still get Hamlin’s points through our inside pick which means we’re covered both ways in the championship battle. If Reddick wins we gain on everyone who picked Hamlin. If Hamlin wins we still collect from our inside anchor. Either way we’re in a strong position.
Larson as the second inside pick with the best active Chicagoland record in the field. Wallace as the 23XI Racing teammate play who benefits directly from our main driver’s setup knowledge. Keselowski as the former Chicagoland winner backed by expert analysis. And Jones as the momentum longshot riding the hottest streak of his 2026 season.
The first Cup race at Chicagoland in seven years. A one-point championship battle between our main driver Reddick and our inside anchor Hamlin. And a completely blank notebook for every team in the garage with no Next Gen data to lean on. This one has all the ingredients to be a genuinely special race.
Qualifying is today, Fourth of July afternoon. Green flag drops tomorrow at 6:00 PM ET on TNT. I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full race recap and a breakdown of how the card held up in NASCAR’s return to the Windy City.
Happy Fourth of July everyone. See you at the track!
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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