Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles! It’s Saturday morning and the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway is tomorrow afternoon. This is the final road course of the 2026 regular season, the first race of the In-Season Challenge, and the last chance for road course specialists to shine before we head back to the oval tracks for the summer stretch.
Let’s get into this week’s picks post.
What a week it’s been since San Diego. Corey Heim winning his first Cup race in just 13 starts was a beautiful moment for 23XI Racing. SVG and Zilisch crashing out on Lap 32 was a gut punch for our card. Bell having to exit the car on Lap 12 because of his fractured wrist was heartbreaking. But Allmendinger delivered a fifth and McDowell brought home a tenth, proving that the value picks we built around road course specialists absolutely work when they survive the chaos.
That’s the approach we’re running back this week.
Quick championship update before we get into the picks. Tyler Reddick leads Denny Hamlin by just 8 points heading into Sonoma. Eight points. This championship race has gone from a blowout to a coin flip over the past month and Hamlin winning four of the last five oval races has completely changed the picture. Sonoma won’t be a Hamlin track though. He’s listed at +10000 this week which tells you everything about road courses and the No. 11.
The Toyota/Save Mart 350 runs 110 laps across 218.9 miles on Sonoma’s 1.99-mile road course with 12 turns, significant elevation changes, and multiple heavy braking zones. Stage 1 ends at Lap 25, Stage 2 at Lap 60, and the final stage runs to Lap 110. Green flag drops at 3:30 PM ET on TNT. Practice and qualifying are this afternoon on TruTV. Let’s get into the card.
My Main Pick: Christopher Bell (12th in points, 422 pts)
You all know the deal. Bell is my driver for the season and I’m locked in on him again this week. The big question heading into Sonoma is the fractured wrist. He exited the car at San Diego after 12 laps and Brent Crews finished the race. That was a street course with 16 turns on a bumpy military base surface. Sonoma is a different challenge with 12 turns on a smoother purpose-built racing surface and the wrist has had an additional week to heal.
Bell finished second at Watkins Glen last year and third at COTA earlier this season. His road course credentials are genuinely strong and JGR’s road course setup has been one of the best in the garage throughout the Gen 7 era. If the wrist is manageable on Sunday, which the team expects it to be, a top-ten finish is well within reach at a track where he’s been consistently competitive. He’s my driver and we ride together.
Inside Top 12 Pick: Tyler Reddick (1st in points, 716 pts, 5 wins)
One inside top 12 pick alongside Bell this week and it’s the championship leader with the strongest road course record of any driver currently inside the top 12.
Four of Reddick’s career Cup wins have come on road courses and he’s a California native from Corning who grew up racing on West Coast circuits. He nearly won at San Diego last week before a flat tire dropped him to 25th after battling Heim for the lead in the closing laps. The car was genuinely fast and the road course pace from the 23XI Racing Toyota has been excellent all season.
The market has him at +750 this week tied with Zilisch as the second choice behind SVG. For the championship leader with four career road course wins at a track where he’s been competitive in previous visits, that’s genuinely fair value. He’s the anchor of the inside pick this week.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Shane Van Gisbergen (17th in points, 362 pts, 1 win)
SVG is the defending Toyota/Save Mart 350 champion. He led a record 97 laps at Sonoma last year, the most ever by a winner at this track. He’s won six of the last eight road course races in the Cup Series. The market has him at -150 as the clear favorite and the price is completely justified by his Sonoma mastery.
Yes, he crashed out at San Diego last week. But that was a restart incident on a brand new street course where nobody had any experience. Sonoma is a track he dominated twelve months ago leading nearly every lap. The Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet with crew chief Stephen Doran has been specifically dialed in for road course events and SVG arrives at Sonoma motivated to bounce back after the San Diego crash. He’s on the card without any hesitation.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Connor Zilisch (outside top 20 in standings, +750)
Zilisch is the clear second choice on the board behind SVG at +750 and his road course ability has been one of the most exciting storylines of the 2026 season. He crashed at San Diego in the same Lap 32 incident as SVG but was leading laps and running at the front before that happened. The talent on road courses is undeniable.
He dominated road courses in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series last year and the Trackhouse Racing connection means he benefits directly from SVG’s Sonoma setup data and road course knowledge. Sonoma is a purpose-built racing circuit with better surface quality and more predictable grip levels than the San Diego street course which should reduce the chaos factor. At +750 he’s a genuine podium threat and the stage points upside is real.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: AJ Allmendinger (20th in points, 346 pts)
The SportsLine model specifically projects Allmendinger to make a strong run at Sonoma this week. He has two top-six finishes in his last three Sonoma starts and four consecutive top-20 results at this track. He finished fifth at San Diego last week showing genuine road course pace throughout the chaos.
All three of his career Cup wins have come on road courses and Kaulig Racing’s road course package has been one of the best in the garage for several seasons. ATS specifically highlights Allmendinger alongside Buescher and McDowell as the value plays on the Sonoma board this week. At +3300 for a three-time road course winner coming off a fifth at San Diego with a model specifically projecting him at Sonoma, the value is genuinely outstanding. He’s been one of our most consistent road course picks all season and the results keep proving the case.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 4: Michael McDowell (21st in points, 333 pts)
McDowell finished second at Watkins Glen and tenth at San Diego earlier this season. That’s back-to-back road course top tens which is the kind of trending form that absolutely demands attention at Sonoma.
ATS specifically identifies McDowell as a value play this week alongside Buescher and Allmendinger, noting his road course credentials compare favorably with several competitors carrying much shorter prices. The veteran road course racecraft we’ve been targeting all season keeps delivering results and Sonoma’s technical demands should suit his patient precise driving style.
At a long price from outside the top 12 in standings, McDowell has been one of the most reliable value plays on road courses throughout the 2026 season. Second at Watkins Glen and tenth at San Diego. The trend is real. He’s on the card.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Kyle Larson (+900) — A two-time Sonoma winner on the current 1.99-mile layout and a California native from Elk Grove. He finished third at San Diego and has the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet running well at road courses when the circumstances allow it. Worth watching in qualifying this afternoon.
Chris Buescher (+1400) — Highlighted by ATS, Predictem, and multiple analysts as a value play at Sonoma. Won Watkins Glen in 2024 and has been one of the most consistent road course performers in the Gen 7 era. He’s inside the top 12 at 7th in standings. If you want to swap one of our picks for Buescher the credentials absolutely support it.
Ryan Preece (+3000) — Predictem specifically backs Preece as one of their three headline picks at Sonoma. He won Stage 2 at San Diego and scored the most points of any driver last week despite finishing 11th. RFK Racing’s road course program has been underrated all season.
Ross Chastain (+5000) — 22nd in standings and outside the top 12. The Trackhouse Racing connection to SVG’s road course data gives him a genuine advantage and he drove from 23rd to seventh at San Diego showing real road course pace.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Denny Hamlin (+10000) — Four wins in his last five oval races but at +10000 at Sonoma the market is telling you everything about how road courses fit into his skill set. Three straight oval wins doesn’t change the fact that Sonoma is not his track. Keep him off the card this week.
Ryan Blaney (+1200) — The SportsLine model is fading Blaney this week, saying despite only three drivers having shorter odds he barely cracks the top 10 in projections. Road courses have not been where Team Penske consistently excels and the model’s hesitation at this price is a genuine flag.
Carson Hocevar — Outstanding season but Sonoma’s technical road course demands specific experience and setup knowledge that Spire Motorsports is still developing. He qualified second at San Diego but finished 19th. The speed is there in qualifying but the race pace on road courses hasn’t matched it yet.
Ty Gibbs — Strong overall season but his road course finishing record has been inconsistent in the Gen 7 era. Three finishes of 22nd or worse in four Watkins Glen starts earlier this year tells you this track type has been difficult for him. The Sonoma elevation changes and heavy braking zones add another layer of complexity he hasn’t consistently handled well.
My Full Pool Card — Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway
Sunday, June 28, 2026 | 3:30 PM ET | TNT | Sonoma, California
Final road course of the 2026 regular season. First race of the In-Season Challenge.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma
| # | Driver | Role | Odds | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | +2000 | Wrist should be improved with two weeks rest, strong road course credentials, 2nd at Watkins Glen last year, JGR road course setup is elite |
| 🏆 | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | +750 | 4 career road course wins, California native (Corning), nearly won at San Diego before flat tire, best road course record of any inside pick |
| 🔥 | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | -150 | Defending winner, led record 97 laps last year, won 6 of last 8 road courses, most dominant road racer in NASCAR history |
| 🔥 | 88 | Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +750 | Second-best road course driver in the field, dominated O'Reilly Series road courses in 2025, Trackhouse setup data benefits him directly |
| 🔥 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +3300 | SportsLine model projects strong run, 2 top-6 finishes in last 3 Sonoma starts, 5th at San Diego, 3 career Cup road course wins |
| 🔥 | 71 | Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +4500 | 2nd at Watkins Glen and 10th at San Diego in 2026, multiple experts highlight him as value play, veteran road course racecraft |
Odds via DraftKings/FanDuel as of June 25. Always bet responsibly.
Wrapping Up This Week's Picks Post For The Toyota/Save Mart 350 At Sonoma
That’s the card everyone and it should look really familiar to anyone who’s been following along with our road course approach all season. We’re running back the same core philosophy that delivered Allmendinger’s fifth and McDowell’s tenth at San Diego, SVG’s dominant Watkins Glen win, and Allmendinger’s seventh at Watkins Glen before that. Road course specialists from outside the top 12 at value prices.
That’s the formula and it keeps working.
Bell as our main driver with improving wrist health at a track where his road course credentials are strong. Reddick as the single inside pick with the best road course win rate of any championship contender. SVG as the defending Sonoma winner who led a record 97 laps last year. Zilisch as the second-best road course driver in the field with Trackhouse data behind him. Allmendinger with the SportsLine model specifically projecting him this week. And McDowell as the value play trending up at every road course in 2026.
This is the final road course of the regular season so this is the last time we’ll lean this heavily into road course specialists until the playoffs. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Qualifying is this afternoon on TruTV. Green flag drops at 3:30 PM ET on TNT tomorrow.
I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full race recap.
See you then everyone!
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
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