Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles!
Thirty-five races down, one to go. Sunday at Homestead-Miami we crown a champion, and it’s the first time since 2019 that the title has been decided anywhere other than Phoenix.
Let’s get to this season’s final weekly picks post!
Byron Puts On Clinic At Martinsville.
Let’s start with Martinsville, where William Byron put on a clinic.
Byron led 362 of 500 laps, swept both stages, set the fastest lap and won by 2.049 seconds over teammate Chase Elliott. It was a Hendrick 1-2 and the most laps Byron has ever led in a single race across his nine-year Cup career. It was also his first win of 2026, his fourth at Martinsville and the 17th of his career in 323 starts.
Kyle Larson got trapped a lap down at the end of Stage 1 after choosing not to pit, recovered to ninth, and did not clinch the championship. Denny Hamlin ran the same strategy from the pole, scored no stage points and finished sixth.
Our card was carried by the outside tier again. Josh Berry finished fourth, his second top-five in three weeks after that fourth at Charlotte. Ross Chastain was our best points performer. Hamlin gave us a solid sixth. Reddick and Preece were steady.
Ryan Blaney was the disaster. Two points. I had him as my top inside pick on the strength of two wins in the last three Xfinity 500s and the best average finish at the track, and it produced nothing. That’s racing, but it’s worth naming.
The Championship Math
This is the part that shapes the whole card, so let’s be precise about it.
Larson needs nine points at Homestead to secure his third Cup Series championship, regardless of what anyone else does.
Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin are the only two drivers mathematically alive. Both need to score the maximum 76 points available on Sunday. Beyond that, Bell needs Larson to finish 29th or worse, and Hamlin needs Larson to finish 32nd or worse.
Everyone else is out.
The betting market reflects exactly how likely that is. Larson is -10000 to win the championship. Bell and Hamlin are both +3300.
Where the Chase Stands
| Pos | # | Driver | Pts | Wins | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2469 | 3 | Leader |
| 2 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2402 | 1 | -67 |
| 3 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2399 | 4 | -70 |
| 4 | 19 | Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2385 | 3 | -84 |
| 5 | 22 | Joey Logano Team Penske • Ford | 2366 | 3 | -103 |
| 6 | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2344 | 6 | -125 |
| 7 | 12 | Ryan Blaney Team Penske • Ford | 2336 | 3 | -133 |
| 8 | 54 | Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | 2309 | 2 | -160 |
| 9 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2303 | 1 | -166 |
| 10 | 9 | Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2268 | 2 | -201 |
| 11 | 2 | Austin Cindric Team Penske • Ford | 2263 | 0 | -206 |
| 12 | 23 | Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing • Toyota | 2257 | 0 | -212 |
| 13 | 77 | Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2234 | 1 | -235 |
| 14 | 60 | Ryan Preece RFK Racing • Ford | 2214 | 1 | -255 |
| 15 | 7 | Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports • Chevrolet | 2210 | 1 | -259 |
| 16 | 17 | Chris Buescher RFK Racing • Ford | 2199 | 0 | -270 |
The Championship Race
The Straight Talk Wireless 400 goes green at 3:00 PM ET Sunday on NBC, with HBO Max streaming plus MRN and SiriusXM Channel 90 on radio.
Homestead-Miami Speedway is a 1.5-mile oval with progressive banking, and the race runs 267 laps for 400.5 miles. Stages end on Laps 80, 165 and 267.
Homestead hosted the finale in all three national series from 2002 through 2019, and it’s back for 2026 after six years of Phoenix holding the date.
Kyle Larson is the defending winner here. He has two career Homestead victories, in the fall of 2022 and last year’s Straight Talk Wireless 400, and he cracks the top five at this oval at a 50 percent rate. His dirt background shows up at Homestead more than almost anywhere, since he rides the outside wall closer than anyone in the field.
The books can’t agree on a favorite. The Racing Experts opened Hamlin +450 with Larson +500. TheSpread has Larson +500 and Hamlin +550. Yahoo has Larson +440 and Hamlin +550. SportsLine’s board has Larson at +410.
Worth knowing: SportsLine’s model, which simulates the race 10,000 times, is fading Larson and says he barely cracks the top five. It’s high on Ty Gibbs at +1700.
My Main Pick: Tyler Reddick (6th in Chase, +650)
Last card of the year with Reddick, and we switched to him back at the halfway point for one reason: he had the highest ceiling in the field. That turned out to be true. Six wins leads everybody, more than Hamlin, more than Larson, more than anyone.
The championship is gone at 125 back, which again works in our favor. He has no points to protect and every reason to chase a seventh win on the last Sunday of the season.
He’s the fifth-shortest price on the board at +650, ahead of Briscoe and Byron. The market still rates him as a genuine threat to win this race, and he proved at Phoenix three weeks ago that when the car is right he can close.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Denny Hamlin (3rd in Chase, +450)
Hamlin is a co-favorite and he’s in the best possible position for our purposes: he must score the maximum 76 points.
That means winning the race, winning both stages and leading the most laps. There is no version of Sunday where Hamlin plays it safe, manages a finish or takes a conservative strategy call. He has to go for absolutely everything from the drop of the green.
He has four wins this season, the second most of anyone. He won the pole at Martinsville last week. The speed has been there all fall.
A driver with four wins, co-favorite odds and a mathematical requirement to max out every available point is exactly what a pool card wants.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Christopher Bell (2nd in Chase, +600)
Same situation as Hamlin, same requirement, and a better fit for the track type.
Bell has led 260 laps on 1.5-mile ovals in 2026 and has four runner-up finishes on intermediates this season, the most recent coming at Charlotte. RotoWire’s preview notes he hasn’t actually won on an intermediate this year despite all that speed, which tells you he’s been close repeatedly without converting.
Homestead is a 1.5-mile oval. Bell needs 76 points. He’s 67 back and it’s his last chance.
Having both must-win drivers as the inside picks is the same logic that worked at Martinsville with Hamlin. When a driver physically cannot afford to settle, you want them on your card.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Josh Berry (22nd, +3500)
Berry is the hottest driver outside the Chase and it isn’t close. Fourth at Martinsville last Sunday, fourth at Charlotte three weeks before that.
He’s been on our card for three straight races now and has delivered twice. There’s no championship pressure on the Wood Brothers, no strategy to manage, nothing to do but race.
At +3500 for a driver running top-five speed in back-to-back appearances, he’s the easiest call on the outside tier.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Ross Chastain (18th, +4500)
Chastain was our best outside performer at Martinsville and he finished fourth at Talladega before that. He’s been quietly the most consistent longshot on our card over the closing stretch.
He’s 18th in points and completely out of everything, which at this stage of the season means Trackhouse can swing freely. Chastain racing with nothing to lose on the last Sunday of the year is a reasonable bet to produce something.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Chris Buescher (16th, +7000)
RotoWire flags Buescher as a sleeper this week with an honest caveat: his career Homestead résumé doesn’t support the endorsement on paper. But his 2025 start here produced a career-best sixth in the Straight Talk Wireless 400.
That’s one genuine Homestead result at a track where he otherwise hasn’t done much, and he’s sitting at 70 to 1.
He’s last in the Chase at 270 back, so RFK has zero reason to be careful. He also won Stage 1 and led a race-high 53 laps at Talladega two weeks ago when we had him on the card, so the speed shows up in flashes.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Kyle Larson (+410 to +500) — Two Homestead wins, the defending winner here, and a 50 percent top-five rate at this track. The reason he’s off my card is that he needs nine points and nothing more. A driver who can clinch a championship by finishing 30th has every reason to ride. SportsLine’s model is also fading him outright. If you think he races for the win anyway, he’s obviously live.
Ty Gibbs (+1500 to +1700) — SportsLine’s model is specifically high on Gibbs this week. He finished third at Martinsville. He’s inside the top 12 at eighth, so he’d cost an inside slot, but the model likes him more than anyone outside the top three.
William Byron (+800 to +1100) — Just dominated Martinsville with 362 laps led and finished second at Talladega before that. Arguably the hottest driver in the sport right now. Inside the top 12 at ninth.
Chase Briscoe (+700 to +800) — RotoWire notes his Homestead stats are weak overall, but his last visit produced a career Homestead-best fourth in last March’s race. Three wins this season. Inside the top 12 at fourth.
Drivers I’m Steering Clear Of
Ryan Blaney (+550 to +600) — Third shortest price on some boards and he’s been on my card twice recently for two and 48 points respectively. The market likes him more than his recent results justify.
Joey Logano (+2000 to +2200) — Three wins this season but he’s been quiet through the closing stretch and 103 points back.
Carson Hocevar (+3500) — Had a difficult Martinsville and the aggressive style that produces flashes has been costing him more than it’s gaining lately.
Shane Van Gisbergen (+8000 to +15000) — The last race of a Chase with no road courses. Nothing has changed about that mismatch.
My Full Pool Card — Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Sunday, November 8, 2026 | 3:00 PM ET | NBC | Homestead, Florida
Championship Race. 267 laps, 400.5 miles. Stages end at Laps 80, 165 and 267. Larson needs nine points to clinch.
Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead
| # | Driver | Role | Odds | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 45 | Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | +6506th | Six wins leads the entire field, out of the title fight so he can chase a seventh, and the fifth shortest price on the board |
| 🏆 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | +4503rd | Needs the maximum 76 points to have any shot at the title, so there is zero reason for the four-time winner to manage anything |
| 🏆 | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | +6002nd | Led 260 laps on 1.5-mile ovals in 2026 with four intermediate runner-ups, and he also needs a maximum points day |
| 🔥 | 21 | Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +350022nd | Fourth at Martinsville and fourth at Charlotte, comfortably the hottest driver outside the Chase field right now |
| 🔥 | 1 | Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +450018th | Our best outside performer at Martinsville and fourth at Talladega before that, quietly the most consistent longshot on the card |
| 🔥 | 17 | Chris Buescher RFK Racing • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +700016th | Posted a career-best sixth at Homestead in 2025 and RotoWire lists him as a sleeper, longest price on the card |
Know your limits and bet responsibly
That’s the last card of the 2026 season.
The logic comes down to one thing: who has a reason to go flat out. Larson doesn’t. He needs nine points and can clinch a championship from 30th place. Bell and Hamlin need all 76 and cannot afford a single cautious decision. Reddick, Berry, Chastain and Buescher have nothing left to protect at all.
That’s six drivers with no reason to manage anything, on the last Sunday of the year, at a track where the winner usually comes from the front of the field.
It’s been a season. Reddick’s six wins led everyone and he still finished sixth in the Chase. We switched to him at the halfway point for his ceiling and he delivered the most wins in the sport, including that Phoenix victory three weeks ago.
Thanks for riding along all year, everyone. Practice and qualifying are Saturday. Green flag Sunday at 3:00 PM ET on NBC, and we’ll have a champion a few hours later.
I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the final recap and a full season wrap. 🏁
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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