Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles! Road course week is finally here and I genuinely love this week more than almost any other on the calendar because everything we’ve been doing for the past month gets completely thrown out the window and the whole picks conversation resets from scratch.
This week the whole card looks different and I genuinely think it gives us one of our best shots at a big pool week all season. Watkins Glen rewards road course specialists and we’ve built this card around exactly that.
The race runs 100 laps across 245 miles with Stage 1 ending on Lap 20, Stage 2 on Lap 50, and the final stage running to Lap 100. Green flag drops at 3:00 PM ET this Sunday.
Let’s get into this weeks picks post for the Go Bowling at the Glen at Watkins Glen International .
Quick recap of Texas last week.
It was a really tough one for the card. Bell was leading the race and running the best drive of his 2026 season before Todd Gilliland slid into the side of his Toyota on Lap 68 and ended his afternoon in 38th.
Byron delivered a solid eighth which was exactly what we needed from our inside anchor.
Larson spun into the wall on his own and retired. Logano and Briscoe were both victims of the pit road chaos that swallowed multiple cars whole.
Cindric finished outside the top 20 after being shuffled back on the final restart.
One good result from six picks is a tough week and I won’t pretend otherwise. But Texas has historically been one of the messiest races on the calendar for cautions and incidents and this year was no different.
We dust off and move forward.
My Main Pick: Christopher Bell (12th in points, 291 pts)
You all know how this works. Christopher Bell is my driver for the first 1/2 half of the season and I’m locked in on him again this week. And honestly? Watkins Glen is one of the tracks where I feel genuinely excited about that commitment rather than just confident in it.
Bell has a 6.75 average finish across his four Gen 7 starts at Watkins Glen, second only to Buescher in the entire field. Finishes of eighth, third, fourteenth, and second across those four starts tell you that when things go wrong here they go wrong once and every other time the No. 20 is up near the front. He finished second here last year right behind SVG and enters this week at +1200 to win.
JGR road course pace was strong at COTA in March where Bell ran third behind Reddick and SVG. The market has him fourth on the win odds board and at 10/1 for a driver who finished second at this specific track twelve months ago that’s genuinely fair value with room to spare.
After back-to-back miserable Sundays through no fault of his own at Kansas and Texas, Watkins Glen is the reset race and I’m fully expecting Bell to remind everyone what he’s capable of on a technical road course.
He’s my pick to win the Go Bowling at The Glen.
Chris Buescher (5th in points, 345 pts)
One inside top 12 pick alongside Bell this week and it’s Buescher without any hesitation at all.
No driver in the field owns a better Watkins Glen Gen 7 record than Buescher. Finishes of ninth, seventh, first, and third across four years make him the most consistent top performer at this specific track in this generation of car.
He won here in 2024 with a last-lap pass of SVG himself which tells you he has the racecraft to beat the favourite when the moment arrives.
One projection has Buescher winning Stage 1 this week and then pitting before the end of Stage 2 to put himself in position to challenge for the win in the closing laps. He’s been in excellent form coming in off a second at Talladega and a fifth at Texas, and his confidence at this track specifically is as high as any driver in the garage.
At +1500 for the best Gen 7 Watkins Glen record in the field, the value is genuinely outstanding. He’s the anchor of the card this week.
Shane Van Gisbergen (19th in points, 215 pts)
I know what some of you are thinking. SVG at +125 barely qualifies as a pick in a pool format. But hear me out because the numbers here are completely extraordinary and you simply have to have him on the card at a road course.
SVG’s average projected finish in simulation runs at Watkins Glen is 3.4, at least 3.8 spots better than any other driver in the field.
Last year at The Glen he led a race-high 38 laps and dominated his way to the win.
He won five of the six road course races in 2025. He’s 19th in the points standings which puts him outside the top 12 this week which actually makes him available for our outside picks tier.
The pool math works out really well here. SVG in the outside tier at +125 combined with the stage points he’s almost certain to collect makes him genuinely additive to the card.
He’s the most dominant road course driver in NASCAR right now by a significant margin and this is his best venue in North America. He’s on the card. Straightforward.
AJ Allmendinger (20th in points, 199 pts)
This is the pick I’m most excited about on the entire card this week because the market is significantly undervaluing Allmendinger at Watkins Glen and the data says so clearly.
All three of Allmendinger’s career Cup Series wins have come on road courses and one of them came right here at Watkins Glen back in 2014. His most recent Cup win came at the Charlotte Roval in October 2023. Kaulig Racing has been one of the best road course organizations in NASCAR for several seasons now and the package they bring to technical venues like Watkins Glen is genuinely excellent.
One DFS analyst puts Allmendinger’s road course form and Kaulig’s package together and identifies him as one of the best value plays on the entire board this week.
At +3000 for a three-time Cup road course winner at a track where he’s previously stood in Victory Lane, the price is simply too good to ignore. He’s one of those picks where if he finishes second or third you feel like you left money on the table. He’s firmly on the card.
Ross Chastain (18th in points, 216 pts)
Chastain delivered at Talladega winning Stage 2 and finishing seventh which was exactly what we needed from him. At Watkins Glen there’s a really interesting case building for him this week that goes beyond just the Trackhouse road course package.
One projection specifically has Chastain winning Stage 2 at Watkins Glen through a strategic call from crew chief Brandon McSwain to stay out under caution and collect the stage points.
The Trackhouse Racing organization has been investing heavily in road course development and both SVG and Zilisch being in the same stable means Chastain benefits from some of the best road course data and setup knowledge in the garage.
He’s 18th in the standings and outside the playoff bubble right now which adds genuine urgency to his weekend. Strategy plays a significant role at Watkins Glen and when a desperate driver has a crew chief willing to make bold calls the results can be really compelling.
At +4000 with a Stage 2 win projection backing him up, he’s on the card.
Connor Zilisch (33 in points, 124)
This is the pick I’ve been going back and forth on all week and ultimately the case is too strong to leave him off the card.
When you look at total points accumulation potential across stages and finishing position at a road course, Zilisch at +285 is one of the highest expected value picks on the entire board this week.Zilisch is arguably the second-best road course driver in the Cup Series right now and he’s demonstrated that time and time again in battles with SVG throughout his career.
At COTA earlier this season he finished 14th after being spun out twice and fighting back from outside the top 30 on both occasions. That is a genuinely remarkable performance from a rookie in his first full Cup season showing the racecraft and determination that makes him so exciting to watch on road courses.
He won each of his two O’Reilly Auto Parts Series races here at Watkins Glen, including his series debut in 2024 so this is a track he knows intimately and has dominated at every level below Cup. The Trackhouse Racing road course programme is built around SVG’s knowledge and expertise and Zilisch benefits directly from that every single week.
At +285 he’s available at a price that reflects genuine win potential and the stage points upside from a driver of his road course caliber is exactly what we need from an outside pick this week. He’s on the card.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Joey Logano — Ran third and led 15 laps here in 2022 and wins through pit strategy and fuel windows rather than raw speed. The ultimate longshot dart at this track and a fascinating option if you want maximum upside on the card.
Tyler Reddick— Four top tens in five Watkins Glen starts and a COTA win earlier this season. He’s inside the top 12 in points this week so he can’t fill our outside tier but he’s a legitimate contender and worth watching all weekend.
Chase Briscoe — A second-place run at Sonoma and a fifth at the Glen anchored his 2025 road course slate and the No. 19 JGR Toyota has always been a threat to win on road courses. He’s outside the top 12 in points but we’ve already filled our outside slots this week. Worth noting for your own card if you want a different direction.
Daniel Suarez — Three of his four Gen 7 starts at Watkins Glen produced top tens including a fifth in 2022 and a seventh last year. He’s outside the top 12 and a legitimate dark horse at this price.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Kyle Larson — His three Watkins Glen finishes since winning here in 2022 are 26th, 12th, and 39th. His road course average across 24 Gen 7 starts is the worst among the road course wins club. The reputation doesn’t match the recent results at this specific venue. Hard to trust at his current price.
Denny Hamlin — He’s finished 20th or worse in three of the last four races at this track and has been fairly open about road courses not being his strongest venue. Even at that long price the Watkins Glen history makes him hard to trust in a pool lineup.
Ty Gibbs — Three finishes of 22nd or worse in four Watkins Glen starts. The form has been brilliant all season but this track type has been consistently unkind to him. His best Watkins Glen result was a fifth in 2023 and that feels like the ceiling rather than the floor.
Bubba Wallace — A career average finishing position of 21.1 at Watkins Glen. Road courses have consistently been the track type where his season form disappears and this week is not the time to find out if that’s changed.
My Full Pool Card — Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International
Go Bowling at The Glen
| # | Driver | Role | Odds | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | +1200 | Finished 2nd here last year, 6.75 avg finish 2nd only to Buescher in Gen 7 era, JGR road course pace is strong all season |
| 🏆 | 17 | Chris Buescher RFK Racing • Ford | Inside Top 12 | +1500 | Best Gen 7 Watkins Glen record in the field (9th, 7th, 1st, 3rd), won here in 2024 on last-lap pass of SVG, Stage 1 win projected |
| 🔥 | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +125 | Defending winner, 3.4 projected avg finish in simulations, 3.8 spots better than any other driver, won 5 of 6 road courses in 2025 |
| 🔥 | 88 | Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +285 | Won O'Reilly Series here in 2024 and 2025, fought back from outside top 30 twice at COTA to finish 14th, genuine podium threat Sunday |
| 🔥 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +3000 | All three career Cup wins on road courses including Watkins Glen 2014, Kaulig road course package is elite, undervalued every single week |
| 🔥 | 1 | Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | +4000 | Trackhouse road course package is excellent, Stage 2 win projected by one model, playoff bubble desperation adds a real edge this weekend |
Odds based on pre-qualifying data and subject to change. Always bet responsibly.
Wrapping Up This Week's Picks Post For The Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International
That’s the card everyone and I genuinely think this is one of the best structured cards we’ve put together all season.
Bell as our main man at a track where he finished second twelve months ago. Buescher as the single inside pick with the best Gen 7 Watkins Glen record in the entire field. SVG as the dominant outside pick who the simulations project to finish nearly four spots better than anyone else. Allmendinger as the undervalued road course specialist at a price that doesn’t reflect his genuine win credentials at this venue. Chastain with a stage win projection and playoff desperation behind him. And Logano as the +6000 dart for the former champion who leads laps here through brains not raw speed.
One final note before Sunday. Three of the four Gen 7 races at Watkins Glen have been won from the front row and qualifying speed translates to finishing position here more than at almost any other track on the schedule. Wait until Saturday’s qualifying results before finalising your own picks.
If SVG or Bell qualify up front it’s an even better sign for the card. If something unexpected happens in qualifying it’s worth knowing before Sunday.
Green flag drops at 3:00 PM ET and I’ll be watching every lap. I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full race recap.
Until then enjoy the weekend everyone!
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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