Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles!
It’s Saturday morning and the Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway is tomorrow afternoon. After Denny Hamlin‘s dominant 11-second victory at Michigan where he tied Kyle Busch for ninth on the all-time wins list, the Cup Series heads to the Tricky Triangle where Hamlin has won more races than any other driver in the track’s entire history. The storylines this week are genuinely compelling and the card I’ve built reflects exactly how strongly I feel about where the value is.
Let’s get into this week’s picks post.
Quick recap of Michigan last week
Hamlin won the race from the rear of the field by over 11 seconds in one of the most dominant performances of the season.
Wallace finished a brilliant third which was one of our best outside picks of the year. Logano finished seventh and Briscoe came home tenth, giving us four of six picks inside the top ten.
The painful spots were Bell‘s violent crash with Elliott on Lap 148 that ended both their days and Reddick’s DNF on Lap 83. Four picks delivering inside the top ten on a day that produced a record-setting number of crashes at Michigan is a genuinely strong pool week.
Before we get into this week’s card I need to address something important. Christopher Bell suffered a fractured wrist in the violent Michigan crash with Chase Elliott but has been cleared to race at Pocono this Sunday.
The wrist is going to be a factor and I want to be straight with you about that. Pocono’s three different turn profiles demand constant steering input and 160 laps of fighting the wheel with a fractured wrist is not going to be easy.
That said, Bell is cleared, he’s racing, and he’s my driver for the season. We ride with him.
The Great American Getaway 400 runs 160 laps across 400 miles with Stage 1 ending at Lap 30, Stage 2 at Lap 95, and the final stage running to Lap 160. Green flag drops at 3:00 PM ET on Amazon Prime Video. Qualifying is this afternoon at 1:00 PM ET.
Let’s get into the card.
My Main Man: Christopher Bell (10th in points, 410 pts)
You all know the deal. Bell is my driver for the first half of the season and I’m locked in on him again this week. The fractured wrist is a genuine concern and I’m not going to pretend otherwise, but the JGR Pocono setup is historically one of the best in the garage and Bell’s driving style suits the different demands of each Pocono corner.
His best Pocono finish is fourth which he’s achieved twice in his Cup career. He collected stage points in Stage 1 at Michigan before the crash and the speed has been genuinely there in recent weeks with back-to-back runner-up finishes at Charlotte and Nashville before Michigan. If the wrist holds up and the car is as fast as it should be in a JGR Toyota at Pocono, a top-ten result is very much within reach. He’s my driver and we ride together. That’s how this works.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Denny Hamlin (2nd in points, 618 pts, 3 wins)
There is genuinely no other choice here and the numbers make the case so clearly that I don’t even need to add much commentary.
Denny Hamlin has five poles, seven wins, 17 top fives, 24 top tens, and a series-best average finish of 10.056 at Pocono Raceway. Seven wins. The most of any driver in the entire history of the track. He’s on a back-to-back win streak coming off Nashville and Michigan and arrives at the track he’s dominated more than anywhere else on the entire schedule.
The market has him at +275 as the clear favorite and multiple analysts note that no active driver comes close to matching his Pocono resume. He’s finished second in each of the last two Pocono races which means he’s been right there at the end both times without quite closing it out. A win on Sunday would give him 64 career victories, surpassing the late Kyle Busch for sole possession of ninth on the all-time list. The motivation to accomplish that at the track he owns is as powerful as it gets in this sport.
He’s the anchor of the card. No hesitation.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Kyle Larson (6th in points, 453 pts)
Larson has one pole, five top fives, ten top tens, and an average finish of 11.500 at Pocono. That’s the second-best active record at this track behind only Hamlin and it tells you the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet consistently runs near the front here.
Multiple analysts identify Larson as the major threat to Hamlin this week, noting that the Hendrick Motorsports star has displayed race-winning speed throughout the season and possesses the versatility needed to adapt to Pocono’s unique layout. He finished fourth at Michigan after being one of the fastest cars all afternoon. He’s still looking for his first win of the 2026 season and Pocono is absolutely a track where his talent and the Hendrick equipment combination should put him right at the front.
The ten career top tens at Pocono give him a genuinely high floor for total points across stages and finishing position. He’s the right second inside pick this week.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Chase Briscoe (13th in points, 370 pts)
Briscoe is the defending Great American Getaway 400 winner, having led a race-high 72 of 160 laps last year and taking the lead on the final restart to beat Denny Hamlin at the finish. The defending winner who led 72 laps and beat the all-time Pocono king on the final restart is sitting outside the top 12 in the standings at 13th. That means his price this week is going to be generous for a driver with those credentials.
FOX Sports specifically highlights Briscoe as one to watch, noting that he started sixth at Pocono in 2025 and led 72 laps before taking the checkered flag. He has seven top tens and five top-five finishes on the 2026 season sitting 13th in the standings. JGR’s Pocono setup is proven at the highest level and Briscoe has access to all of that data alongside Bell and Hamlin. At +1600 the defending winner is genuinely one of the best value plays on the entire board this week.
He’s the most confident outside pick on the card.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Erik Jones (18th in points, 314 pts)
This is the pick the entire analytics community has been talking about all week and after looking at the data I completely agree with them.
Jones finished second at Michigan last week with a 105.3 driver rating, his best in a points-paying event in 2026. He’s now finished 13th or better in four straight races including 11th at Nashville, 13th at Charlotte, and a strong third in the All-Star Race at Dover. At Pocono specifically, Jones hasn’t finished worse than 14th in the four Gen 7 races here, picking up points in six of the last eight stages at the Tricky Triangle with two top tens in that span.
Covers specifically identifies Jones as a standout sleeper pick at +3500, noting that the No. 43 pilot and his Legacy Motor Club ride have had serious speed in recent weeks. A driver on a four-race run of 13th or better who hasn’t finished worse than 14th in four Gen 7 Pocono starts at +3500 is one of the most compelling outside value plays we’ve had all season. He’s on the card.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Joey Logano (17th in points, 329 pts)
Logano finished seventh at Michigan from 18th on the grid and has been quietly building form over the past several weeks. He’s a multiple-time Pocono winner across his career and Team Penske has historically been one of the strongest organizations at the Tricky Triangle. The Pocono layout rewards strategy, fuel mileage, and veteran racecraft over 160 laps and Logano fits that description perfectly.
He needs points for his playoff positioning and the motivation from sitting 17th in the standings adds a real edge to his weekend. At +1800 for a multi-time Pocono winner in a Team Penske Ford that just finished seventh at Michigan, the value is there. He keeps his spot on the card this week.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Bubba Wallace (+2200) — Covers identifies Wallace as a standout value pick this week and his third-place Michigan finish showed the 23XI Racing Toyota is running at an elite level right now. He’s inside the top 12 in standings at 11th so he can’t fill our outside slots but he’s absolutely worth considering for your own lineup.
William Byron (+1200) — Two poles, three top fives, six top tens, and an 11.000 average finish at Pocono. Inside the top 12 at 12th. The second-best active average finish behind Hamlin.
Brad Keselowski (+2200) — Outside the top 12 at 15th. Predictem specifically highlights Keselowski as one of their headline picks for Pocono this week. The RFK Racing Ford has been competitive and Keselowski’s veteran racecraft suits the strategic demands of the Tricky Triangle.
Austin Cindric (+2500) — Outside the top 12 at 16th. Team Penske has historically been strong at Pocono and Cindric’s smooth driving style suits the different demands of each corner. He finished 11th at Michigan from 31st on the grid showing he can work through the field when the car is right.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Tyler Reddick — Five wins and the championship leader but his 16.125 average finish at Pocono is one of his weaker track records. At +700 the price doesn’t justify the risk when better value exists elsewhere on the board this week. The 23XI Toyota is dangerous everywhere but Pocono specifically hasn’t been kind to him and the odds don’t account for that.
Carson Hocevar — Outstanding season but Spire Motorsports’ best Pocono result is 17th by Hocevar himself in 2024. The organizational gap at this unique track layout is still real and difficult to overcome regardless of how talented the driver is.
Shane Van Gisbergen — Pocono’s tri-oval with three different corner profiles demands very specific setup knowledge that takes years to develop. His oval learning curve here is still early and the Tricky Triangle is not the place to gamble on development.
Ty Gibbs — Led 21 laps at Pocono in 2024 before his engine gave out, then finished 14th last year. The qualifying pace is strong with the best active average starting position at 7.25 but the finishing record hasn’t matched it yet. The speed is clearly there on Saturday but translating that into a strong Sunday result has been the missing piece at Pocono.
My Full Pool Card — Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway
Sunday, June 14, 2026 | 3:00 PM ET | Amazon Prime Video | Long Pond, Pennsylvania
Odds via DraftKings as of June 11. Always bet responsibly.
Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono
| # | Driver | Role | Odds | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | +850 | Cleared to race with fractured wrist, JGR Pocono setup is elite, best finish of 4th twice here, locked in for the season |
| 🏆 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | +275 | All-time Pocono king with 7 wins, 10.056 avg finish (best active), on a back-to-back win streak, 2nd here in each of last 2 races |
| 🏆 | 5 | Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Inside Top 12 | +750 | 5 top fives and 10 top tens at Pocono, 11.500 avg finish, major threat to Hamlin per analysts, desperate to end winless drought |
| 🔥 | 19 | Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Outside Top 12 | +1600 | Defending winner, led 72 of 160 laps last year, beat Hamlin on the final restart, JGR Pocono setup is proven at the highest level |
| 🔥 | 43 | Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club • Toyota | Outside Top 12 | +3500 | Finished 2nd at Michigan last week, hasn't finished worse than 14th in 4 Gen 7 Pocono races, 13th or better in 4 straight races |
| 🔥 | 22 | Joey Logano Team Penske • Ford | Outside Top 12 | +1800 | Multiple career Pocono wins, Team Penske historically strong at Tricky Triangle, 7th at Michigan showing improved form |
Wrapping Up This Week's Picks Post For The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway
That’s the card everyone and I genuinely like how it’s structured this week. Bell as our main driver racing through a fractured wrist at a track where JGR’s setup has been excellent. Hamlin as the overwhelming anchor with seven career Pocono wins and a back-to-back victory streak heading into his best track. Larson as the second inside pick with the strongest Pocono record behind only Hamlin in the active field. Briscoe as the defending winner who led 72 laps and beat the all-time Pocono king on the final restart twelve months ago. Erik Jones as the momentum pick riding a four-race streak of 13th or better at a track where he hasn’t finished worse than 14th in the Gen 7 era. And Logano as the veteran multi-time Pocono winner from outside the top 12 at a price that reflects his standings position rather than his track credentials.
One thing to watch before Sunday: Bell’s wrist. If there’s any indication during qualifying this afternoon that the injury is limiting his ability to put the car where it needs to be through Pocono’s three different corners, it’s worth keeping expectations tempered. That said, he’s cleared, he’s racing, and we ride with him. That’s the deal.
Qualifying is this afternoon at 1:00 PM ET on Amazon Prime Video. Pole position has produced winners 17.39% of the time at Pocono so watch closely where our picks qualify. Green flag drops at 3:00 PM ET on Amazon Prime Video tomorrow.
I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full race recap and a complete breakdown of how the card held up at the Tricky Triangle.
See you then everyone!
Bryan | Driving on Marbles
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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