Well race fans, what a Sunday at Phoenix Raceway. The Straight Talk Wireless 500 had everything you could ask for. Lead changes all afternoon, multiple caution periods, a green-white-checkered finish, and a result that honestly had me pumping my fist for most of the second half of this race.
I am going to break down the race, walk through what happened, and most importantly let’s talk about how the picks did because I need you all to know this was one of the best collective weeks I have had putting a card together in a very long time. Let’s get into it.
The Race: Blaney Delivers, Reddick's Streak Ends
Ryan Blaney won the Straight Talk Wireless 500 in dominant fashion and honestly it was not even that close at the end. The No. 12 Dent Wizard Ford crossed the stripe with a margin of victory of just under four-tenths of a second over Christopher Bell in second, with Kyle Larson rounding out the podium in third. The full top ten went Blaney, Bell, Larson, Ty Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Michael McDowell, and Erik Jones.
Blaney won Stage 1 and led 28 laps on the day. He proved once again why he is the best Phoenix driver of his generation and why I had him as my Lock of the Week coming in. Team Penske had an outstanding day across the board.
The story everyone was watching all week was of course Tyler Reddick’s bid to win four consecutive races to open a season, something that has not been done since Jimmie Johnson in 2007. It was not to be. Reddick finished eighth and while that is still a points day, Phoenix remains a stubborn track for the 23XI Racing star. He still holds a commanding lead in the standings but the streak is officially over at three. I faded the outright win all week and that call was dead right.
Now let me walk you through the lap leaders because this race told a really interesting story on track. Joey Logano started from the pole and absolutely flew early, leading 46 consecutive laps right out of the gate before Blaney took over at lap 47. Blaney led 17 laps to win Stage 1. Then through the middle portion of the race it was a battle between Logano and Bell swapping the lead back and forth repeatedly, with Bell eventually taking control to dominate Stage 2 from lap 175 through to the Stage 2 conclusion. The closing stage came down to strategy and execution on restarts and that is where Blaney was simply better than everyone else. He crossed the line first and it was not in doubt in those final laps.
Unfortunately Joey Logano had a brutal ending to what was a spectacular day. After leading 73 laps total, the most of anyone in the race, he got caught up in a late accident and wound up finishing 31st. That is the cruelty of this sport sometimes. Logano was arguably the second-best car for the majority of this race and came home with almost nothing to show for it. Tough, tough break for the No. 22 Penske team.
Other notable incidents on the day included Chase Briscoe finishing 37th after an accident, Zane Smith going out in an accident on lap 294, Connor Zilisch getting suspended, and Daniel Suarez also being involved in an accident. Cole Custer had a radiator issue end his day early. It was a rough afternoon for a big chunk of the field.
How My Picks Did: Let's Get Into It
Alright, the moment of truth. Here is what the official NASCAR results sheet tells us about how the card performed and I want to be completely transparent with you all, pick by pick.
Christopher Bell (My Main Driver) — 2nd Place, Stage 2 Winner, 176 Laps Led
I am going to take a moment here because this deserves it. Christopher Bell was MAGNIFICENT today. He finished second, won Stage 2 outright, and led a staggering 176 laps. One hundred and seventy-six laps led. That is dominance. That is the driver I have been backing all season showing up and reminding everyone exactly who he is. He came so close to the win today and the only reason he did not get it is because Ryan Blaney was just a little bit better on that final restart. Bell earned 54 points today and is finally starting to climb back up those standings where he belongs. I told you all week the speed was undeniably there. Today proved it beyond any shadow of a doubt. The win is coming folks. It is just a matter of time.
Ryan Blaney (Lock of the Week) — 1ST PLACE, Stage 1 Winner, 28 Laps Led
The lock of the week wins the race and leads Stage 1. Blaney earned 65 points on the day, the maximum available. What else can you say here. I called him my Lock of the Week, I backed him as a top-5 finish play, and he went out and won the whole thing. This is exactly why we do the research, trust the data, and back our convictions. Phoenix is Blaney’s track and he proved it again on Sunday. If you had him in your pool lineup or on your betting card today was a very profitable afternoon.
Kyle Larson (Strong Play / Pool Pick) — 3rd Place, Stage 2 Top 10
Larson delivered exactly what his track record at Phoenix promised. Third place, Stage 2 top-10 points, and 36 points on the day. He started second on the grid and ran up front all afternoon just like I said he would. Three straight top-5 finishes at Phoenix coming in and he made it four in a row. This is a massive pool points day and exactly why I had him slotted as the Strong Play this week. Hendrick Motorsports brought the goods and Larson did what Larson does at this track. Clean, professional, and consistently up front. Can not ask for more than that from a pool pick.
Denny Hamlin (Outside Top 12 Pool Pick) — 5th Place, Stage 2 Top 5, 5 Laps Led
Called it. Motivated Denny Hamlin at Phoenix delivered exactly what I said he would. Fifth place, stage top-10 in Stage 2, 47 points on the day, and he even led 5 laps. This is a massive pool points day from an outside top-12 pick and a really encouraging sign for where the No. 11 JGR team is heading as the season moves into familiar oval territory. Hamlin is going to be a factor every week from here on out and today proved it.
William Byron (Outside Top 12 Pool Pick) — 7th Place, Stage 1 Top 10
Byron came home seventh and collected Stage 1 top-10 points, earning 32 points on the day. Exactly what his 4.9 average running position data told us to expect. He ran up front, stayed clean, collected stage points, and went home inside the top-10. That is a genuinely great pool day from an outside-the-top-12 pick. Quietly excellent as always.
Chase Briscoe (Dart Throw) — 37th Place (Accident)
The dart throw did not land today and I am not going to sugarcoat it. Briscoe finished 37th after being involved in an accident and that costs us in the pool. That is the acknowledged risk every time I put the dart throw label on a pick. The short-track analytics backed him up but racing is unpredictable and accidents happen. You shake it off and move on.
The Dark Horses
Joey Logano as my dark horse at plus-1200 is the painful one. The car deserved a top-5 finish and racing luck took it away. That is NASCAR.
Chris Buescher came home 14th and picked up Stage 2 top-10 points finishing fourth in that stage. His 30 points on the day is a solid result and the stage points alone validated why I was pointing to him as a value play all week. Not the blockbuster result but a profitable day for anyone who followed the stage points angle.
The Fades: Both Hit
Tyler Reddick outright win — Finished eighth. Streak over. Call was right all week.
Bubba Wallace — Finished sixth which is actually a decent result for him, so I will give credit where it is due. He ran better than his Phoenix history suggested he would and picked up stage points in Stage 2. Fair play to Bubba today even if I had him faded. Not every fade lands perfectly and that is the honest truth of this business.
The Official Scorecard
🏁 How My Picks Did — Straight Talk Wireless 500 | Phoenix
| Driver | Role | Official Result | Stage Points | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | ⭐ Main Driver | 2nd Place — 54 pts — 176 Laps Led | Stage 2 WIN | A+ |
| Ryan Blaney | 🔒 Lock of the Week | 1st Place — 65 pts — 28 Laps Led | Stage 1 WIN | A+ |
| Kyle Larson | 💪 Strong Play | 3rd Place — 36 pts | Stage 2 Top 10 | A+ |
| Denny Hamlin | 🔥 Outside Top 12 | 5th Place — 47 pts — 5 Laps Led | Stage 2 Top 5 | A |
| William Byron | 🔥 Outside Top 12 | 7th Place — 32 pts | Stage 1 Top 10 | A |
| Chase Briscoe | 🎯 Dart Throw | 37th — DNF (Accident) | None | F |
| Kyle Larson | 💪 Strong Play / Pool Pick | 3rd Place — 36 pts | Stage 2 Top 10 | A+ |
| Chris Buescher | 🎲 Longshot | 14th Place — 30 pts | Stage 2 Top 5 | B+ |
| Tyler Reddick (Fade) | 🚫 Win Fade | 8th Place — Streak Ends | Stage 2 Top 10 | ✅ Correct |
| Bubba Wallace (Fade) | 🚫 Fade | 6th Place — Better Than Expected | Stage 2 Top 5 | Partial Miss |
Takeaways Heading Into Las Vegas
Even with Briscoe’s accident being the one blemish, this was a genuinely outstanding week for the Driving on Marbles card. The top three pool picks of Bell, Blaney, and Larson alone delivered a top-2 finish, a race win, and a podium. Add Hamlin fifth and Byron seventh and that is five of six pool picks inside the top 10. That is about as clean a pool week as you can have.
176 laps led. Stage 2 winner. Second place finish. That is a Bell performance for the ages at Phoenix and it is only going to fuel the fire heading into Las Vegas next weekend.
I will have the full Las Vegas preview, top 20 breakdown, picks post, and pool lineup ready for you later this week right here at Driving on Marbles.
The Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway goes green Sunday March 15th at 3:30 PM ET on FS1.
See you all then. Let’s keep rolling.
Bryan
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
If you love NASCAR and want more than surface level coverage, you’re in the right place.
Let’s get you closer to the action.
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