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NASCAR Texas 2026: This Week’s Top 20 Driver Rankings for the Würth 400

NASCAR Texas 2026: This Week's Top 20 Driver Rankings for the Würth 400

Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles! Happy Wednesday and welcome to race week at one of the most action-packed venues on the entire NASCAR calendar.

We’re coming off one of the wildest Sundays of the season at Talladega and now the Cup Series makes a very welcome return to normalcy at Texas Motor Speedway for the Würth 400.

After a superspeedway week where 26 cars got collected in one incident, a smooth 1.5-mile intermediate oval in Fort Worth feels like exactly the reset everyone in the garage needs right now.

Let’s get into this week’s top 20 for the Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Hendrick Motorsports have dominated recent editions of this race with Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Chase Elliott all recording wins at Texas since 2021. Joey Logano capitalized on an overtime shootout to win the Würth 400 last year in May 2025. There’s a real mix of organisations that can win at this track and the picks this week should reflect that.

One important note on the tire situation.

Goodyear is bringing an updated tire package to Texas this week. The left-side tire was introduced at Charlotte last May and features a compound update compared to what was run here last year, while the right-side tire underwent a construction change and was first raced at Kansas last fall. New tires mean new variables and the teams that adapt quickest in Saturday practice will have a real advantage heading into Sunday.

1. Tyler Reddick (1st in points, 484 pts, 5 wins)

Reddick leads the standings with five wins and seven top tens through the first ten races, maintaining a 110-point cushion over the field despite a 14th-place finish at Talladega. Texas is genuinely familiar territory for him. He scored a win at Texas in 2022 and has shown strong intermediate track form throughout his Cup career.

After a quiet Talladega by his extraordinary 2026 standards, the return to a 1.5-mile oval where he has genuine track record is exactly the kind of reset that should suit him well. Don’t be surprised at all if he’s back in Victory Lane by Sunday evening.

2. Denny Hamlin (2nd in points, 374 pts, 1 win)

Hamlin enters Texas as the clear favourite this week, sitting second in the standings with a win, four top fives, and six top tens on the season. He was swallowed up by the Talladega chaos finishing 15th but before that he was genuinely one of the best cars in the field for three straight weeks. Texas is a track where Hamlin has historically been very strong and the JGR package at 1.5-mile intermediates has been one of the best in the garage in 2026.

He’s the market favourite for a reason and the case for him leading laps and contending for the win on Sunday is genuinely clean.

3. Ryan Blaney (3rd in points, 344 pts, 1 win)

Blaney had an absolutely disastrous Talladega finishing 37th after getting collected in the Big One and the points gap to Reddick has widened. Texas is the kind of track where he can claw some of that back quickly.

Team Penske historically performs well at Texas and Blaney has the raw speed at 1.5-mile ovals to be a genuine contender when his pit crew gives him a clean race.

That caveat remains the key qualifier every single week but Texas is the right track to bounce back.

4. Chase Elliott (4th in points, 340 pts, 1 win)

Elliott’s fine record in the Würth 400 is worth paying close attention to this week, and his recent form has been reliable including a win at Martinsville and a fourth at Talladega. Hendrick Motorsports have dominated recent editions of this race with Elliott among the Texas winners since 2021.

He’s been one of the most consistent drivers in the field over the past month and Texas sets up as another strong weekend for the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. He’s a legitimate win candidate and the value at his current price is genuinely interesting.

5. Ty Gibbs (5th in points, 322 pts, 1 win)

Gibbs sits fifth in the standings with a win, five top fives, and seven top tens, but a 34th-place finish at Talladega showed that even strong seasons come with setbacks. Texas hasn’t been his best track historically with a best finish of 13th at this venue. The confidence from the Bristol win is still very much there and JGR’s 1.5-mile setup has been excellent all season but the Texas-specific history is a genuine flag.

He’s worth watching in Saturday practice to see if the speed is there before committing to him in a pool lineup.

6. Kyle Larson (6th in points, 315 pts)

The winless drought stretches to 11 races now and Larson is clearly motivated to put an end to it.

Larson has won the pole at Texas three times since 2021 and the No. 5 team has been pretty good in qualifying this season with the second-highest average starting position in the Cup Series at 7.7. Starting near the front at Texas matters enormously for total points accumulation across the stages and a strong qualifying effort could set him up perfectly for Sunday.

He’s a Texas winner in the recent era and the Hendrick Motorsports package at intermediates has been one of the very best all season. He’s ready to break through and Texas could absolutely be the week.

7. Chris Buescher (7th in points, 309 pts)

Buescher had an outstanding Talladega finishing second right behind Hocevar at the line and he arrives at Texas riding genuine momentum as one of the hottest drivers in the field right now. RFK Racing at Texas has been a quietly strong combination in recent seasons and Buescher’s smooth disciplined approach to intermediate oval racing suits this track type very well.

A top-ten result would keep his impressive points run going and based on recent form that’s well within reach.

8. Carson Hocevar (8th in points, 292 pts, 1 win)

First career Cup Series win. Victory Lane at Talladega.

Carson Hocevar, “The kid” is officially on the board in the biggest possible way and he moves up to eighth in the standings off the back of it.

Texas is a completely different challenge from Talladega and historically this 1.5-mile intermediate has been more of a learning curve track for Spire Motorsports.

In 16 Cup Series starts at Texas, Spire Motorsports has logged just one top ten and five top 20s.

The win confidence is real and powerful but the track history says manage expectations a little this week. A solid top-fifteen and keeping his championship momentum going would be a great Texas result.

9. Christopher Bell (9th in points, 290 pts)

Bell is my main driver for the first half of the season and Texas is a week where I genuinely expect him to remind everyone what the No. 20 JGR Toyota is capable of.

Bell has a best finish of third at Texas and comes into this weekend having finished 17th or worse in three of his last four races. Analysts are predicting Bell to win Stage 2 and finish top five at Texas this week which is very much in line with what we know about him at 1.5-mile intermediates.

He leads the field in average running position at Kansas which is a very similar track to Texas and JGR’s intermediate package has been excellent all season. A bounce-back result is absolutely coming and this feels like the week.

10. Brad Keselowski (10th in points, 279 pts)

Keselowski had a nightmare Talladega finishing 31st after getting caught up in the mayhem but Texas is a track where he’s historically been very strong. He won here in 2017 and 2019 and has led laps at this venue in multiple Gen 7 era races.

The RFK Racing intermediate package has been solid all season and Keselowski arrives at Texas with legitimate historical credentials. He’s one of the most interesting watch items heading into Saturday practice.

11. William Byron (11th in points, 277 pts)

Byron is a Texas winner in the recent era as part of Hendrick Motorsports’ domination of this race. He had a brutal Talladega finishing 35th after getting collected in the wreck but Texas is exactly the kind of reset track where Hendrick tends to reassert themselves after a bad superspeedway week.

His qualifying pace at intermediates has been consistently strong all season and the No. 24 Chevrolet should be right back near the front on Sunday.

12. Bubba Wallace (12th in points, 276 pts)

Wallace also had a rough Talladega, getting turned by Chastain and finishing 36th which dropped him from eighth to 12th in the standings. Texas is a track where 23XI Racing has shown genuine speed in recent seasons and Wallace has been one of the more consistent drivers in the field when things are going smoothly.

He needs a clean race and a bounce-back result badly this week and a 1.5-mile intermediate is exactly the right track type to find one.

13. Ryan Preece (13th in points, 269 pts)

Preece won Stage 1 at Talladega last week which was a genuinely impressive result for RFK Racing and it moves him up to 13th in the standings. Texas has historically been a track where RFK Racing is competitive and Preece’s smooth intermediate oval approach has been working well throughout 2026.

He’s been one of the most consistent drivers in the field all season and a top-fifteen result at Texas would keep that run going.

14. Daniel Suarez (14th in points, 235 pts)

Suarez is sitting 14th in the standings and right on the edge of the playoff picture heading into Texas. He had a solid Talladega finishing 12th which was one of his better results in recent weeks.

Texas historically has been a middle-of-the-road track for Suarez but Spire Motorsports has been improving their intermediate package and a clean race with a top-fifteen finish would be a meaningful step for his playoff positioning.

15. Joey Logano (15th in points, 234 pts)

Logano won the Würth 400 at Texas just last year in an overtime shootout. The defending Texas spring winner arrives at a track where he has genuine, fresh, and highly relevant credentials. Talladega was a disaster for him getting collected in the Big One and finishing 39th but Texas resets everything.

He knows how to win this race, he won it twelve months ago, and Team Penske’s Texas setup should be one of the strongest in the garage this weekend. Don’t let the current points position fool you about what he’s capable of at this specific track.

16. Austin Cindric (16th in points, 226 pts)

In the last two trips to Texas Motor Speedway, Cindric has had genuine speed. He qualified third in the Würth 400 last year and won Stage 1, and the previous year he posted the second-best average lap time.

Analysts are projecting him to put up one of the five best lap times on Saturday and win Stage 1 again this week. Stage points and a top-ten finish would be a really strong Texas result for the No. 2 Team Penske Ford and the track history says it’s absolutely achievable.

17. Chase Briscoe (17th in points, 222 pts)

Prior to last year’s Würth 400, Briscoe had three top-five finishes at Texas with SHR and the No. 19 team has its own history of excellence at this track. Last year he finished 27th due to a suspension issue which masked what the car was actually capable of.

He’s been on a brilliant recent run with a fifth at Bristol and a third at Kansas and JGR’s intermediate setup has been one of the very best in the garage all season.

Texas could be a big week for Briscoe and the track record before the suspension issue says the speed will absolutely be there.

18. Ross Chastain (18th in points, 205 pts)

Chastain delivered exactly what we needed from him at Talladega, winning Stage 2 and finishing seventh. That’s the Chastain we know is in there and Texas is a track where Trackhouse Racing has shown genuine improvement over the past season.

He’s outside the playoff bubble right now and that urgency tends to bring the best out of him on intermediate ovals where the racing is cleaner and his aggression can be channelled more productively than at a superspeedway.

19. Shane Van Gisbergen (19th in points, 195 pts)

SVG continues his impressive 2026 campaign sitting 19th in the standings despite Talladega being one of the trickier weekends for him. Texas is a 1.5-mile intermediate oval which is one of the track types where the pure oval experience gap still shows up for him compared to established drivers. He’ll be working hard in practice to find a setup that works and a mid-pack points day in the top 20 would be a solid result this weekend.

20. Zane Smith (20th in points, 183 pts)

Smith had a genuinely outstanding Talladega finishing fifth for Front Row Motorsports which was one of the surprise results of the afternoon and moves him up into the top 20 in points. Texas is a much more traditional challenge for FRM and historically the organisation has struggled at 1.5-mile intermediates compared to superspeedways where their cars consistently overperform. A clean race and a solid mid-pack result is the realistic expectation this week.

Dark Horses Worth Watching This Week

Joey Logano (+1600)  Already mentioned in the top 20 but absolutely worth calling out again as a dark horse. He won this race last spring in an overtime shootout and arrives as the defending Texas spring winner. At his current odds outside what the market typically offers for a defending winner, he’s genuinely one of the best value plays on the entire board this week.

Chase Briscoe (+2200)   Three top-five finishes at this track before the suspension issue cost him last year. JGR intermediate setup is elite. Bristol fifth and Kansas third showing the momentum is real. He’s outside the top 12 in standings which means the odds are going to be generous and the track record says he absolutely can run up front here.

Austin Cindric (+2500)  Won Stage 1 here last spring, qualified third, and has posted the second-best average lap time at Texas across his recent visits. The stage points potential alone makes him worth a look at this price.

Erik Jones (+4000)  Jones has three top-ten finishes at Texas since May 2021 and analysts are calling for a turnaround result this week after three straight poor finishes. Legacy Motor Club has been improving steadily and Texas is a track where Jones has genuinely shown the ability to run inside the top ten.

Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of

Ty Gibbs The form is there but Texas-specific history with a best finish of 13th is a genuine concern at a track where we need stage points and a top-five result to make the card work. Wait for Saturday practice before committing.

Carson Hocevar The win at Talladega is incredible but Spire Motorsports’ Texas record of one top ten in 16 starts is hard to overlook. This might be a week to let the momentum breathe and come back to him at a more favourable track type.

Bubba Wallace Needs a bounce-back week but Texas hasn’t been a consistently strong track for him historically. The uncertainty heading in after a rough Talladega keeps him off the main card.

Denny Hamlin He’s the market favourite this week but at the short price he’ll be available at there’s better value elsewhere on the board. Being right doesn’t always mean being profitable in a pool format.

Wrapping Up This Weeks Top 20 For The Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway.

That’s your full Top 20 Rundown for the Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway everyone!

After the absolute mayhem of Talladega last week this feels like a really welcome return to the kind of racing where the best cars and drivers tend to reassert themselves. Reddick looking to bounce back, Larson desperate to end the drought, Hamlin as the market favorite, and genuine value hiding in the defending champion Logano and the surging Briscoe from outside the top 12.

Keep an eye out for this week’s picks post which will be out before qualifying on Saturday, where I’ll have my full pool card locked in.

See you then everyone. Let’s have a great race week!

Bryan | Driving on Marbles

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Bryan
Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.

Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.

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