This Week’s Top 20 Rundown: Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway

Alright, before we close the book on this week’s Phoenix preview I want to talk about some drivers who are NOT in our current top 20 in points but absolutely cannot be ignored this Sunday. Some of these guys are legitimate win candidates this weekend and the story of their early 2026 season is honestly one of the most interesting narratives going right now. Let’s get into it.

Christopher Bell | Current Points: 24th (59 pts)

I have to be honest with you guys, Bell’s early 2026 season has been one of the most frustrating stories to watch because it has had almost nothing to do with his performance. At Daytona, he was running up front, leading laps, and had a legitimate shot at winning the 500 before Denny Hamlin made contact with him coming out of turn four and sent the No. 20 Toyota into the wall on lap 193. That is a heartbreaking way to lose that many points right out of the gate. He then came back and put together a solid top-10 at COTA which showed the speed is absolutely there.

Here is the thing about Bell at Phoenix though: he is the two-time defending winner of this race. Not one time. Two times in a row. And he has led over 1,100 laps in his Cup career at this track. Joe Gibbs Racing has led 56 percent of the laps at Phoenix over the last four races combined. That is absolutely dominant. His average finishing position here sits at 12.9 across all his Phoenix starts but that number is dragged down by early career struggles. His recent track record is as good as anyone in the field right now.

Bell is coming in with something to prove after a brutal luck-driven start to 2026 and this is exactly the kind of track and situation where we see a fired up, focused Christopher Bell remind everyone he is a championship-level driver. The odds right now have him at plus-650 which is genuinely one of the best values on the board this weekend considering his history here. I love Bell as a top-3 finisher this Sunday and would not be shocked at all if he makes it three straight wins at Phoenix.

My Outlook: Top 3 finish, legitimate WIN candidate. Outstanding betting value at +650

Denny Hamlin | Current Points: 23rd (60 pts)

The Denny Hamlin story heading into Phoenix is one of the most emotionally loaded storylines of the entire 2026 season. Last November at this very track, Hamlin led 208 laps in the championship race and came agonizingly close to finally winning the Cup Series title, only to lose it in the final laps. That loss was crushing. Add in everything else he has dealt with in the offseason including his father’s passing and the injuries his mother suffered in a house fire, and this has been a heavy few months for one of NASCAR’s greatest drivers.

He is sitting 23rd in points right now which for a six-time race winner last season looks alarming on paper. But slow down. His early season problems have been track-type specific. Daytona and Atlanta are drafting tracks that can eat anyone alive and COTA is a road course. He has racked up just one stage point through the first three races but came away with a top-10 at COTA. The flat oval world that Phoenix represents is completely different and Hamlin has more laps led at this track than almost anyone in the sport’s history with 41 career starts here.

He is co-favorite to win this race right now at plus-550 tied with Ryan Blaney and that is for a very good reason. When Hamlin drives onto pit road at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday, he is driving onto the track where he has arguably the most experience and the most heartbreak. Motivated does not begin to describe where his headspace is this weekend. He finished third or better in four of the last eight stages here and won Stage 2 last November during the championship race. His setup knowledge at this track is unmatched and JGR will bring him a great car.

This is one of my favorite plays of the weekend. A desperate, motivated, experienced Denny Hamlin at his best Phoenix track is a very dangerous combination.

My Outlook: Top 5 finish, co-favorite for a reason. Strong win candidate at +550

Kyle Busch | Current Points: 22nd (61 pts)

Kyle Busch is in an interesting spot. He is 22nd in points which for a two-time champion feels like a fire alarm going off but it is still genuinely early. His struggles at RCR have been well documented at this point and the organization has not fully closed the gap to the top-tier teams. Phoenix does give him a bit of a lifeline though. He has 41 career starts at this track tied with Hamlin for the most among active drivers and that level of experience matters on a technical track like this one.

The issue is the RCR equipment is just not at the level where Kyle can go out and dominate like he did during his JGR years. He is likely looking at a 12th to 18th finish here and if things go perfectly maybe he sneaks into the top 10. The odds have him at plus-3000 which reflects the reality of where his organization is right now. I am not recommending a bet here but Kyle Busch fans should at least expect a cleaner, more competitive day than what we have seen to start 2026.

My Outlook: 12th to 18th, better day ahead but equipment gap is real

Chase Briscoe | Current Points: 21st (63 pts)

Briscoe does not get talked about enough in the context of Phoenix and that is a mistake. His recent short track ratings are actually among the best in the field right now and he is one of the drivers that the simulation models have been high on this week. He is 21st in points but only barely outside the top 20 and he has shown legitimate speed to start 2026 even when the results have not fully reflected it.

JGR brings tremendous Phoenix knowledge to every car in their stable and Briscoe is going to benefit from that. He is listed at plus-1200 on the odds board which is a price worth taking a small shot on if you are looking for a longshot. The No. 19 Toyota could absolutely sneak into the top 5 this weekend and that would go a long way toward pulling him back into Chase contention.

My Outlook: Sneaky top-10 threat, possible top-5 if the setup is dialed in. Worth a small longshot bet at +1200

Alex Bowman | Current Points: 32nd

Bowman is way down in the standings after a rough start to 2026 but I want to at least mention him here because Hendrick Motorsports at Phoenix has been consistently strong and if HMS brings the package they have been capable of building for this track, Bowman is not without hope. He is in a contract year which usually lights a fire under drivers. His track record here is not elite but he has made the playoffs seven of eight seasons at HMS which tells you something about his ability to grind through adversity.

I am not bullish on him winning but a quiet top-15 finish is not out of the question and every point matters in the new Chase format. He needs a big performance badly.

My Outlook: Top 15 if everything goes right, needs a clean problem-free day desperately

The Bottom Line on This Group

What is fascinating about all of these drivers is that most of their point deficits are the result of bad luck or track-type mismatches in the first three races, not a lack of speed or talent. Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin in particular are two of the best Phoenix drivers in the entire field and both of them have genuine win equity this Sunday. The Chase format returning this year means every single point counts from here on out and Phoenix is the kind of track that can give a struggling team a jump-start back toward the top 16.

Do not sleep on Bell and Hamlin this weekend. Those two might end up being the biggest stories of the day.