Alright folks, welcome back to Driving on Marbles. We are staying on the West Coast this weekend as the NASCAR Cup Series rolls into North Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and I could not be more fired up about this one.
After a week at Phoenix where we got short track drama, tire failures, and a green-white-checkered finish, we shift to a completely different animal this Sunday. Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with 20-degree banking in the turns, which makes it one of the most aero-dependent intermediate tracks on the calendar. This is where Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske traditionally flex their muscles, horsepower matters, and clean track position is everything. The racing here is fast, the strategy battles are intense, and the final 100 laps almost always produce a shootout.
Let’s get into this week’s Top 20 Rundown.
Before we get into it, I want to acknowledge what just happened at Phoenix. Ryan Blaney won a race he absolutely dominated from the front, Christopher Bell led 176 laps and was absolutely the class of the field in the second half only to come up short, and our picks card had five of six pool picks finish inside the top 10.
That was a great week. Now let’s build on it.
Here is your updated NASCAR Cup Series top 20 heading into Las Vegas and exactly what I think we can expect from each of them this Sunday.
Top 20 Driver Rundown, Predictions & Best Bets
1. Tyler Reddick (225 pts, 3 Wins)
The streak finally ended at Phoenix, just like I said it would. Reddick finished eighth and the three-race winning run is in the books.
Now the question becomes does he bounce back here?
Las Vegas is a very different story than Phoenix. The spring Pennzoil 400 has not been Reddick’s strongest event historically.
He finished 35th here last fall after getting collected in an accident and his spring Las Vegas record has been inconsistent at best.
23XI Racing will put a competitive car on the track, they always do, and Reddick still leads the standings by 60 points so there is zero desperation here. Expect a solid top-10 to top-15 day as he and the team recalibrate after a rare off week.
My Outlook: Top 10 to top 15, not a win candidate this weekend
2. Ryan Blaney (165 pts, 1 Win)
Blaney just won at Phoenix in dominant fashion and you might think Las Vegas is next.
But here is the thing I need to be honest about: Las Vegas has been an absolute nightmare for Blaney in recent years.
He crashed out of both Las Vegas races last season, finishing 38th in the fall, and has three consecutive finishes of 32nd or worse at this track. His tire went down with just a few laps left in Stage 1 last fall and he was done for the day before most of us even had our popcorn ready.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway has somehow become Blaney’s kryptonite and until he proves otherwise I cannot get too excited about him this weekend no matter how well the Phoenix win set him up mentally. Fade with caution.
My Outlook: Boom or bust, recent Vegas history is ugly…he’s either top 5 or crash
3. Bubba Wallace (153 pts)
Wallace has been one of the genuine surprises of 2026 and sitting third in points is no accident. He has been clean, consistent, and racking up stage points every week.
Las Vegas has been a mixed bag for Bubba though. He ran in contention last fall before a speeding penalty on pit road dropped him back and he eventually finished 22nd.
His ceiling here is a solid top-10 finish if the 23XI cars are running well and he avoids self-inflicted mistakes.
I think he is good for somewhere in the 10th to 15th range on Sunday.
My Outlook: Top 10 to top 15, points-paying day
4. Chase Elliott (128 pts)
Elliott has not had the kind of start to 2026 that his talent demands and he is probably the most overdue driver in the field for a big performance.
Las Vegas has actually been decent for Elliott over the years. He finished second in the fall 2025 race to Hamlin, running him down lap by lap in the final 10 circuits and only coming up short by less than half a second.
Hendrick Motorsports is always strong at intermediate tracks and if the No. 9 car comes to life at a 1.5-mile oval the way we know it can, this could be a breakout race.
I like Elliott more than his standings position suggests this weekend.
My Outlook: Top 5 to top 8, could be the week he wakes up
5. Shane Van Gisbergen (116 pts)
Here we go. After a road course where SVG looked like an alien, and a superspeedway, and a flat short track at Phoenix last week, we now get to see him at his first intermediate oval of the season.
This is genuinely the biggest unknown on the card this Sunday. Las Vegas is where the traditional oval skills really matter. High speed aero management, tire conservation across 267 laps, multiple restarts in traffic. SVG has been sensational but intermediate ovals are a different education and we simply do not have enough data points on him here.
He could run 25th, he could run 12th. I genuinely do not know and that uncertainty alone keeps him off my card.
My Outlook: Wild card, 15th to 25th is a reasonable range as he learns intermediates
6. Christopher Bell (113 pts)
Bell had one of his best performances of the 2026 season at Phoenix last week. He led 176 laps and won Stage 2 and was legitimately the best car on the track for the majority of the afternoon. He just could not hold off Blaney at the end.
The confidence coming out of that race has to be enormous. Now he heads to Las Vegas where he has six top-10 finishes in 12 career starts and three career poles at this track.
Joe Gibbs Racing brings a strong intermediate oval package and Bell knows how to put laps down here.
Coming off a near-win with that much momentum, I think Bell is going to be right there contending again on Sunday.
My Outlook: Top 5 contender, legitimate win threat
7. Joey Logano (113 pts)
Logano is tied with Bell for sixth in points and is coming off a heartbreaking DNF at Phoenix where he led 73 laps, the most in the race, and was clearly the dominant car before getting tangled up in the late-race accident.
He is going to be furious this week.
And when Joey Logano is furious and motivated, he tends to take it out on everybody else at Las Vegas Motor Speedway specifically.
He is a four-time winner at this track, winning in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2024. He has over 580 laps led at Las Vegas over his career, more than any other active driver. His top-5 rate here is over 30 percent and top-10 rate over 60 percent.
If there is any driver in the field who treats this race like a must-win after what happened last Sunday, it is Logano. He is one of my favorites this week.
My Outlook: Top 5 contender, serious win threat — motivated and dangerous
8. Michael McDowell (111 pts)
McDowell has been one of the most pleasant surprises of early 2026 and sitting eighth in points with three races done is a remarkable achievement for a Spire Motorsports car.
Las Vegas has some history for him as well. He actually won the pole here last spring at 186.961 mph, his first non-superspeedway pole, and has quietly put together some decent intermediate oval results in recent seasons.
He is not going to win this race but he has proven he can rack up stage points and bring it home clean. A top-15 finish keeps his strong season rolling.
My Outlook: Top 15 realistic, consistent points day
9. Chris Buescher (111 pts)
Buescher is absolutely on a roll right now. He came into Phoenix 11th in points and put together a 14th-place finish that included a top-5 stage performance in Stage 2, earning 30 points on the day.
He has quietly become one of the most reliable mid-pack performers in the field. Las Vegas has been solid for Buescher and RFK Racing in recent years, and Keselowski finished 11th here last fall with Preece 9th, showing that RFK knows how to set up an intermediate oval car.
If Buescher runs a clean race and avoids trouble, a top-12 to top-15 is very much on the table.
My Outlook: Top 12 to top 15, another solid points day for the RFK program
10. Kyle Larson (109 pts)
Here is my pick to win the Pennzoil 400. Full stop.
Larson is the most dominant driver in the modern era at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He is a three-time winner here. He led 181 of 267 laps in the spring 2024 race. He swept both stages in that same race.
His career average finish of 9.4 at Las Vegas is the best among all active Cup drivers. Hendrick Motorsports has more wins at this track than any other organization in NASCAR history with 10 total.
He came out of Phoenix third last week looking sharp, his momentum is building, and now he comes to his best intermediate oval.
Larson coming into Las Vegas in this form, with this track history, is exactly the kind of spot where he reminds the whole field that he is still the most talented driver out there.
My Outlook: WIN. My top pick to take the checkered flag Sunday
11. William Byron (108 pts)
Byron won Stage 1 at Las Vegas last fall before getting collected in an accident later in the race that ended his day early. He finished 36th after what was looking like a legitimate top-3 car.
The spring Las Vegas races have been much kinder to him, with a win in the 2023 Pennzoil 400 and multiple top-10 finishes in this event.
His career stats at this track are impressive and HMS is clearly going to be strong here again. Byron has been a little up and down in 2026 but if he can put it all together at a track where he has a win, look out.
My Outlook: Top 5 to top 8, past winner with a real shot at a strong run
12. Denny Hamlin (107 pts)
Hamlin won the fall Las Vegas race in 2025, his 60th career Cup victory, in a dominant performance that saw him take the lead with 39 laps to go and hold off Chase Elliott. He also won Stage 2 that day.
Las Vegas has been one of Hamlin’s best tracks over the years and he has two wins and 15 top-10 finishes in 28 career starts here. He bounced back nicely at Phoenix with a fifth-place finish after a tough stretch early in the season.
Hamlin knows exactly how to win at this track and the No. 11 JGR Toyota should be strong again.
He is firmly in my top-5 considerations this weekend.
My Outlook: Top 5 contender, two-time Vegas winner who knows how to close
13. AJ Allmendinger (104 pts)
Allmendinger at an intermediate oval is a different conversation than Allmendinger at a road course or a superspeedway.
Las Vegas is where the gap between Kaulig Racing and the top-tier programs tends to become most visible. He has been remarkably consistent to start 2026 but this track style does not play to his strengths.
Expect him to grind out a respectable mid-pack finish in the 15th to 20th range and keep adding to his points total.
My Outlook: 15th to 22nd, consistent but this is not his best track type
14. Carson Hocevar (103 pts)
Hocevar continues to be a feel-good story of early 2026 and staying in the top 15 in points is a testament to how well he has driven his Spire Motorsports Chevy.
Las Vegas though is a big intermediate oval where car preparation and organizational depth matter a lot. He is still building that experience base at 1.5-mile tracks and this is likely a points-accumulation race more than a chance to shine.
He will be learning a ton about how to set up and manage a car at this type of oval. If he comes home clean in the top 20, that is a quality day.
My Outlook: 17th to 23rd, gaining important intermediate oval experience
15. Ty Gibbs (101 pts)
Gibbs had a really nice Phoenix race, finishing fourth and earning stage points along the way.
He is clearly finding his rhythm in 2026 and the No. 54 JGR Toyota is a capable machine at intermediate ovals.
Joe Gibbs Racing knows Las Vegas well and Gibbs showed at Phoenix that when he gets clean air and a good setup, he can run with the big dogs.
He has been flashing more confidence with each race and this could be a track where he continues that trend. I like him more than his standings position suggests.
My Outlook: 10th to 15th, watch for a quietly strong run
16. Brad Keselowski (100 pts)
Keselowski is a three-time Las Vegas winner and this track has historically been one of his best on the entire circuit.
He won in 2012, 2017, and 2020 and knows every inch of this place. RFK Racing has been building steadily and Las Vegas is the kind of intermediate track where veteran track knowledge really pays dividends.
He finished 11th here last fall and has been running well enough in 2026 to put together another strong intermediate result.
Do not sleep on Keselowski at a track where he has three wins.
My Outlook: Top 12 to top 15, three-time winner with real track knowledge
17. Daniel Suarez (98 pts)
Suarez has been consistent to start 2026 and his points total reflects steady race-after-race execution.
Las Vegas has been a middling track for him historically, running in the 12th to 18th range most weeks.
Trackhouse Racing has improved their intermediate oval program and Suarez is a capable driver but he has not broken through here as a top-10 threat consistently.
Expect another quiet points day in the 12th to 18th range.
My Outlook: 12th to 18th, dependable but unremarkable
18. Ryan Preece (92 pts)
Preece continues to quietly build a very respectable 2026 season and nearly cracking the top 20 in points in a non-powerhouse car is impressive.
Las Vegas has actually been decent for him in recent seasons. He finished third here in the fall 2025 race, his best career Cup finish, which showed he can run with the leaders on an intermediate oval when everything falls right.
He has the skills to be a top-15 threat here and if the cautions fall his way and pit strategy works out, he could sneak into even better territory.
My Outlook: Top 12 to top 15, sneaky good value on an intermediate oval
19. Zane Smith (85 pts)
Smith has had a solid start to his Cup career and staying inside the top 20 in points early in the season is a real achievement.
Las Vegas is a 1.5-mile intermediate oval where the big organizations tend to flex and the learning curve for newer teams and drivers is real.
He is going to get a genuine education in what it takes to run 267 laps at a fast intermediate track on Sunday.
If he brings it home in one piece in the 18th to 25th range he should consider it a productive weekend.
My Outlook: 18th to 25th, building intermediate oval experience
20. Kyle Busch (81 pts)
Kyle Busch at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is always worth talking about. He is a Las Vegas native. This is his home race. He has 29 career starts here, tied for the most all-time with Kevin Harvick, and he has a Cup win at this track.
He has been inconsistent in 2026 but the motivational factor of racing in front of his home crowd cannot be understated.
Busch tends to find something extra at Las Vegas every single year.
I would not be shocked at all to see him run inside the top 10 here, whether he has the equipment to sustain it or not, and he has enough track knowledge to be dangerous if strategy plays out in his favor.
My Outlook: Top 10 threat, never count out Kyle Busch at his home track
My Final Predictions
Win: Kyle Larson Top 5: Larson, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott Sleeper Watch: Ryan Preece, Ty Gibbs, Kyle Busch Fade of the Week: Ryan Blaney — three straight DNF-level finishes at Las Vegas and that recent history is too ugly to ignore no matter how well Phoenix went
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is one of those tracks where the cream rises to the top. Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing are going to be powerful here, Team Penske knows this place well, and the intermediate oval specialists are going to sort themselves out in a hurry.
My main driver is Bell, which this week is not a bad pick at all. I am also riding with Larson hard this Sunday and I thinking Logano or Hamlin round out a very competitive top three. Green flag drops at 4:00 PM ET this Sunday. Do not miss it.
As always, thanks for reading and good luck out there this weekend. Bet smart, have fun, and I will see you back here with my picks post before qualifying.
Bryan
Author Profile
-
Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
If you love NASCAR and want more than surface level coverage, you’re in the right place.
Let’s get you closer to the action.
Latest entries
- March 20, 2026Betting PicksNASCAR Darlington 2026: My Picks, Best Bets & Pool Lineup for the Goodyear 400
- March 18, 2026BLOGNASCAR Darlington 2026: Top 20 Driver Rankings for the Goodyear 400
- March 16, 2026BLOGPennzoil 400 Recap 2026: Hamlin Wins at Las Vegas, Bell Poles, and How My Picks Did
- March 14, 2026BLOGNASCAR Las Vegas 2026: My Picks, Best Bets & Pool Lineup for the Pennzoil 400
