Hey race fans, welcome back to Driving on Marbles! Happy Wednesday and welcome to race week at one of my absolute favourite stops on the entire NASCAR schedule.
The Cup Series is heading to Martinsville Speedway this Sunday for the Cook Out 400 and honestly I couldn’t be more excited about this one. Martinsville is a completely different animal from anything we’ve seen so far in 2026. We’ve had superspeedways, road courses, a flat one-mile oval, a 1.5-mile intermediate, and last week the unique challenge of Darlington. But nothing on this schedule prepares you for what Sunday is going to feel like at the paperclip.
Martinsville is a 0.526-mile half-mile oval that is absolutely brutal on brakes and tires. The straights are only 800 feet long. Drivers are nose-diving into these turns, braking as hard as they can, and then slamming on the throttle coming out of Turns 2 and 4 to get back to as much speed as the straights will allow before doing it all over again.
Four hundred laps of that. It’s a grind and it’s glorious and the winner gets a grandfather clock instead of a trophy because Martinsville does things its own way.
The big storyline heading in is whether Tyler Reddick can make it five wins from seven races or whether the field finally figures out how to stop him. Interestingly, Reddick is not the favourite this week. Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin are the early market leaders heading into Sunday. There’s a reason for that and we’ll get into it below.
Green flag drops at 3:30 PM ET this Sunday March 29. Here’s your full top 20 breakdown based on the current Cup Series standings.
Let’s get into it!
1. Tyler Reddick (1st in points, 325 pts, 4 wins)
The man is on the most historic run in NASCAR in a generation and I don’t think anyone fully knows how to stop him right now. Four wins in six races puts him in the company of Dale Earnhardt and Bill Elliott as the only drivers in history to accomplish that feat. And yet he walks into Martinsville as something other than the favourite, which tells you how specific this track’s demands are.
Reddick’s Martinsville history in the Next Gen era is honestly a bit of a question mark compared to his dominance everywhere else. He doesn’t have a win at the paperclip and his results here have been more inconsistent than at the track types where he’s been unstoppable. That said, the man overcame a battery failure, a broken cool suit, and a late-race incident at Darlington last week and still won by six seconds. You simply cannot discount him at any track right now. He’s the points leader by a mile and he’s driving with maximum confidence. Don’t bet against him.
2. Ryan Blaney (2nd in points, 230 pts, 1 win)
Blaney has the two wins in the last six Gen 7 starts at Martinsville which is the strongest track history of any driver in the field this week. He won at Phoenix earlier this season and came home third at Darlington last week after overcoming a pit road penalty and a loose wheel issue. If his pit crew can execute cleanly on Sunday, Blaney is as dangerous as anyone at this venue.
The green flag pit cycles at Martinsville are shorter than most tracks, there are typically more cautions, and track position resets more often.
That actually works in Blaney’s favour because the pit crew issues that have hurt him this season matter less when stops are shorter and opportunities come around more frequently. He’s a legitimate win candidate this week and the market has him right at the top of the board for good reason.
3. Bubba Wallace (3rd in points, 205 pts)
Wallace had an absolutely nightmare Sunday at Darlington, getting caught up in the Hamlin-Jones incident after a slow pit stop and finishing 34th. That drops him to third in points and snaps what had been a remarkably consistent early season. Martinsville has been a mixed bag for Wallace historically and this is a week where he’s going to need to bounce back hard to stay in touch with the top two in the standings. He’s got the equipment at 23XI Racing to do it. Whether the momentum is still there after last week’s mess is the real question.
4. Denny Hamlin (4th in points, 203 pts, 1 win)
This is the driver I’m most interested in watching all weekend. Hamlin leads all active Cup Series drivers in wins at Martinsville with six career victories, leads all active drivers in laps led at this track with 2,722, and has 21 top fives and 27 top tens in 40 starts here. In the spring race last year at Martinsville, Hamlin led 274 laps and took the checkered flag with a margin of victory of over four seconds.
This is genuinely his best track. He’s the defending spring winner here. He just won Las Vegas two weeks ago. He finished 11th at Darlington after a possible flat tire scare forced a conservative strategy call. None of those things change what he historically does at the paperclip. I’d be very surprised if Hamlin isn’t running at the front for most of Sunday afternoon.
5. Chase Elliott (5th in points, 194 pts)
Chase Elliott at Martinsville is one of those combinations that the data keeps screaming about and it hasn’t fully translated into wins in the Gen 7 era yet, but it’s coming. Elliott has led the most laps of any driver in the Next Gen era at Martinsville with 515, has five top tens in that span, and finished top three in both 2024 events.
He won here in 2020 on the way to his championship. He’s been one of the most consistently fast drivers at this track without always getting the result that speed deserves. He finished second at Las Vegas two weeks ago and was genuinely impressive at Darlington before fading late. At plus-900 this week he’s one of the best values on the entire board and he’s very much on my radar for the pick post later this week.
6. William Byron (6th in points, 191 pts)
Byron at Martinsville in the spring is an absolute powerhouse combination. Byron has three career wins at Martinsville with his most recent coming in the fall of 2025 when he cruised to victory lane and punched his ticket to the Championship 4. He won here in the spring of 2022 as well. His Martinsville wins have come in different conditions, different cars, and different competitive environments, which suggests the skill is his and not just the equipment.
He ran a disciplined eighth at Darlington last week without putting his car in the wall once, which is exactly the kind of preparation you want heading into a track like Martinsville. He’s a serious win candidate this weekend.
7. Chris Buescher (7th in points, 188 pts)
Buescher has been quietly excellent at Martinsville in recent seasons for RFK Racing. He’s put together multiple top-ten results at this track and came home ninth at Darlington last week as part of RFK’s outstanding day. The short track discipline that RFK Racing has built over the last few seasons makes them consistently competitive at places like Martinsville and Buescher tends to maximise every bit of it. He’s a reliable pool option in the outside tier this week.
8. Christopher Bell (8th in points, 182 pts)
Bell is my main driver for the season and after a tough 19th at Darlington we’re absolutely due for a good result. Bell has finished inside the top ten in three of his last five Martinsville races including both events in 2025. And don’t forget, when everyone was talking about Ross Chastain’s Hail Melon move in October 2022, it was Bell who won that Martinsville race.
He’s got a legitimate track record here and JGR typically brings fast short track cars to Martinsville. Bell took second here last spring in the Cook Out 400 and has been touted by multiple analysts as a genuine win candidate this week. I’m fully expecting a bounce-back performance from the No. 20 on Sunday.
9. Brad Keselowski (9th in points, 182 pts)
Keselowski was absolutely brilliant at Darlington last week. Led 142 laps, swept both stages, and only lost to Tyler Reddick in the final 30 laps when Reddick’s car was simply in another stratosphere. He’s tied with Bell at 182 points and is riding serious momentum into this week. Keselowski led 170 laps at Martinsville in the fall of 2024, his most in a single race since, and has genuine historical success at this track with two wins in a stretch between 2015 and 2021. Whether that recent Martinsville magic transfers back after a few quieter years there is the question but the momentum from Darlington is real.
10. Kyle Larson (10th in points, 176 pts)
Larson had a rough end to his Darlington race, picking up wall contact late and finishing 32nd, which snapped what had been a quietly solid start to his day. At Martinsville though, the data is really compelling. In the seven races at Martinsville since the fall of 2022, Larson hasn’t finished worse than sixth, netting one win and six top fives in those events. That is one of the most dominant sustained runs by any driver at any track in the Gen 7 era.
He also consistently qualifies well here. In the last six qualifying sessions at this track, Larson has placed fifth or better on four occasions with a 4.4 average starting position in his last five Martinsville races. Good qualifying at Martinsville matters more than at most tracks because track position is so hard to recover once you lose it.
11. Ty Gibbs (11th in points, 173 pts)
Ty Gibbs is on a roll right now and I’m not stepping off this train until he gives me a reason to. Three straight top-six finishes including sixth at Darlington last week. The No. 54 JGR Toyota is one of the fastest cars in the garage right now. Gibbs has four top-ten finishes in 2026 and three in the top five. At Martinsville last year he started 13th and finished 13th, so this track hasn’t been particularly kind to him yet in the Cup Series. The form though is very real and JGR’s short track package is typically strong. He’s worth monitoring closely in Saturday practice.
12. Ryan Preece (12th in points, 154 pts)
Every single person in the NASCAR world seems to be talking about Ryan Preece this week and honestly the numbers back it up completely. Martinsville is one of his best tracks, as evidenced by his pair of top-ten finishes here last year in his first season with RFK Racing. He’s earned multiple stage points in his last three trips here. Preece is the 10th-best finisher at Martinsville in the last six starts and has led 135 laps in those races, so he’s genuinely figured something out at this venue. RFK Racing’s short track capability has been proven over recent seasons and this is shaping up as one of the most interesting outside plays on the entire board. Keep a very close eye on him in qualifying on Saturday.
13. Carson Hocevar (13th in points, 151 pts)
What a run Hocevar had at Darlington last week, charging from the rear of the field to finish fourth and looking like the fastest car in the final laps. The 22-year-old is genuinely building something special in 2026. Martinsville is a different test though. Hocevar hasn’t finished better than 17th in his five Cup starts at this track. Short track experience matters at the paperclip in a very specific way and this is a venue where the learning curve is still real for a young driver. A clean race and a top-fifteen result would be a solid outcome for him this weekend.
14. Daniel Suarez (14th in points, 150 pts)
Suarez bounced back nicely at Darlington with a seventh-place finish after a string of tough weeks, and he’s had his best start to a season in a while sitting 14th in points. Martinsville has historically been a middle-of-the-pack track for Suarez and a quiet points day somewhere in the 12 to 18 range is a realistic expectation. Spire Motorsports has been impressive in 2026 though and you can’t completely rule out an upset.
15. Shane Van Gisbergen (15th in points, 140 pts)
SVG continues his quietly impressive 2026 campaign sitting 15th in the standings. Road courses are obviously where his skills shine brightest but he’s been handling the oval tracks better than most expected. Martinsville is still a track where pure Cup Series experience at a half-mile oval matters enormously, and SVG hasn’t logged enough laps at this specific venue to feel fully comfortable. A top-20 result and clean points day is what we’d expect.
16. Joey Logano (16th in points, 139 pts)
Logano has burned us twice now at tracks where his historical record looked strong and he’s slipped to 16th in points after 33rd at Darlington. At Martinsville though the numbers are genuinely compelling. Logano has five poles, one win, 11 top fives, 22 top tens, and an average finish of 10.618 in his career at this track. That’s a legitimate short track pedigree. He’s also perilously close to the playoff bubble which adds a layer of desperation that tends to sharpen drivers up at tracks like Martinsville. I need to see something from him in Saturday practice before I trust him in a pool lineup, but the track history absolutely supports a look this week.
17. Michael McDowell (17th in points, 139 pts)
McDowell and Logano are tied at 139 points and McDowell has been one of the consistency stories of the 2026 season for Front Row Motorsports. Martinsville is a tough track for single-car teams but McDowell’s experience and veteran smarts at short tracks give him a better chance than most at his level. He’ll keep it clean, collect his points, and be there at the finish when others are not.
18. AJ Allmendinger (18th in points, 124 pts)
Allmendinger is a road course ace first and foremost and Martinsville is about as far from a road course as you can get on this schedule. His oval results in the Cup Series have always been inconsistent and 400 laps of heavy braking and stop-and-go racing is not the environment where his strengths come to the surface. A mid-pack finish and clean points day is the realistic expectation here.
19. Zane Smith (19th in points, 123 pts)
Smith has been doing a solid job collecting points for Spire Motorsports and is holding his own in a competitive field. Martinsville will be one of his more demanding weekends of the young season. Getting to the finish in one piece and landing inside the top 20 would be a strong result for a driver who’s still developing at the Cup level.
20. Ross Chastain (20th in points, 115 pts)
Chastain is 20th in points and has had a genuinely frustrating start to 2026 that doesn’t match his raw talent. Martinsville is a track that should theoretically suit his aggressive, all-in driving style. He’s got history here too, most famously the Hail Melon wall ride in 2022 that showed just how creative he can get when he needs track position. He’s been trying to claw back into the conversation for the past few weeks and Martinsville might be the place he finally gets a result that puts him back on everyone’s radar.
Dark Horses Worth Watching This Week
Josh Berry — Berry started at the back all season but Martinsville is a track where his Xfinity Series pedigree runs deep. He won the spring Cook Out 400 last year and knows how to set up a car for the paperclip. The Wood Brothers have been quietly working on their short track package and this could be a surprise result weekend.
Brad Keselowski — Worth calling out again as a genuine win candidate coming off his Darlington performance. The momentum is real and his historical Martinsville record when he’s been on is strong. If he qualifies well on Saturday he’s absolutely a pool play worth considering.
Chase Elliott — At plus-900 he’s longer than his Martinsville track record deserves. He’s led more laps than any driver in the Gen 7 era at this track and finished top three in both 2024 events. The win is overdue and this feels like a strong candidate week.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Bubba Wallace — I love what Bubba’s done all season but the Darlington disaster was a momentum killer and Martinsville hasn’t been a consistently strong track for him. At his current odds he’s not offering enough value to justify the uncertainty.
Austin Cindric — Fifth at Darlington was encouraging but his Martinsville record shows one top five and four finishes of 23rd or worse in eight starts. That kind of variance makes him very hard to trust in a pool format.
Shane Van Gisbergen — Same reasoning as every short oval. The experience gap is just too real at a track like Martinsville. Save him for when the road courses come back around.
Daniel Suarez — Seventh at Darlington was great to see but Martinsville hasn’t been a track where Spire Motorsports has shown they can consistently run up front. A quiet day in the mid-teens is the more likely outcome.
That's your full Top 20 Rundown for the Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway everyone!
This is genuinely one of my favourite race weekends of the whole season and I think Sunday could be one of the most entertaining races of 2026. The paperclip always delivers.
Keep an eye out for this week’s picks post which will be out before qualifying on Saturday, where I’ll have my full pool card, best bets, and all the drivers I’m targeting locked in.
See you then. Let’s have a great race week everybody!
Bryan
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
If you love NASCAR and want more than surface level coverage, you’re in the right place.
Let’s get you closer to the action.
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