Welcome back to Driving on Marbles race fans! We’re going short track racing this week and honestly I’ve been looking forward to this one since the schedule dropped back in the fall.
Martinsville Speedway is one of the most unique and demanding venues in all of motorsport and the Cook Out 400 is a race where track history, tire management, and braking performance matter more than almost anything else on the 2026 calendar. If you’ve read the Top 20 Driver Rankings post from earlier this week you already know the full breakdown. This is where we turn that research into picks.
Let’s get into this weeks post.
Last week at Darlington was a tough one to swallow. Tyler Reddick went out and won his fourth race in six starts which is genuinely one of the most historic runs in NASCAR in a generation, Brad Keselowski led 142 laps and swept both stage points only to watch Reddick drive away in the final thirty laps, and our outside picks let us down badly with Chastain finishing 17th and our card taking a hit on the back end. We move forward.
This week we are heading to a 0.526-mile paperclip-shaped short track in Ridgeway, Virginia where drivers will brake as hard as they possibly can going into turns, bang doors with the car next to them, and do it all again four hundred times until somebody gets a grandfather clock. Martinsville is one of my favourite places in all of NASCAR and Sunday’s race sets up to be an absolute thriller.
My Main Driver: Christopher Bell
If you’re a consistent visitor of the Driving On Marbles, you’ll know how my fantasy Nascar pool works. However, if you’re new around these parts, then I’ll quickly explain. In my pool we pick a main driver for the 1st half of the season and Christopher Bell is my driver for the first half of the season. Even if he wasn’t my main driver I would be fully locked in on him again this week. After a tough 19th at Darlington last week we are absolutely due for a bounce-back and the Martinsville data gives me a lot of confidence heading into Sunday.
Let’s talk about what Bell has actually done at this track. He won the fall 2022 race at Martinsville when the entire world was talking about Ross Chastain’s Hail Melon move. He qualified on pole and finished second in last spring’s Cook Out 400. He has finished inside the top ten in three of his last five Martinsville starts. Joe Gibbs Racing brings fast short track cars to the paperclip every single time and Bell has the restarts, the braking discipline, and the raw short track skill to win here.
Multiple analysts have him as a genuine win candidate this week and I agree completely. He came home fourth at Las Vegas, won the pole there, and has been one of the most impressive performers over the early part of this 2026 season. At plus-900 or better you are getting a former Martinsville race winner heading to his best track type with a JGR Toyota that is strong everywhere right now.
His floor when the car is right is a top-five finish. After what we saw from the No. 20 over the first six weeks of the season, that car is absolutely right. Bell is my pick to win the Cook Out 400 and I feel great about it.
Denny Hamlin (4th in points, 203 pts, 1 win)
This one doesn’t require a lot of convincing. Denny Hamlin is the most dominant active driver in the history of Martinsville Speedway and it’s not particularly close. Six career wins at the paperclip. 2,722 laps led all-time here which is more than a thousand ahead of the next closest active driver. Twenty-one top fives and twenty-seven top tens in forty starts. In last year’s spring Cook Out 400, Hamlin led 274 laps and took the checkered flag by over four seconds. He was absolutely dominant.
He won at Las Vegas two weeks ago. He’s been in the top ten in five of the six races this season. He finished 11th at Darlington last week only because a loose wheel scare forced a conservative strategy call from the crew, not because the No. 11 car was slow. This is his best track on the entire schedule and tire management is his single greatest skill as a driver. Those two things together at Martinsville make him the anchor of the inside top 12 this week and I have zero hesitation putting him here.
William Byron (6th in points, 191 pts)
William Byron at Martinsville in the spring is one of the most reliable combinations on the entire NASCAR schedule and the numbers back that up completely. Three career wins at this track. He won the spring 2022 race and most recently the fall 2025 playoff race where he cruised to victory and punched his ticket to the Championship 4. What’s really compelling about Byron here is that his Martinsville wins have come in different cars, different competitive environments, and different conditions, which tells you the skill is genuinely his and it’s not just lucky circumstances breaking right.
He ran a really disciplined eighth at Darlington last week without putting the car near the wall once. That’s exactly how you want a driver approaching the week before Martinsville. He preserved everything heading into a track where Hendrick Motorsports has dominated historically and the No. 24 is going to be fast on Sunday. Byron knows exactly what to do with a fast car at the paperclip and I’m expecting him to be running at the front all afternoon.
Joey Logano (+1400 to +2000)
I know exactly what you’re all thinking right now. Logano has burned us twice in recent weeks and I completely understand the hesitation. But here’s why I’m going back to the well this week and I want you to hear me out on this one.
Martinsville is a completely different track from Las Vegas and Darlington and Logano at Martinsville is genuinely one of the most compelling combinations on the entire board this week. The driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford has finished inside the top ten in all eight Gen 7 races at this track and the last 13 times he’s been here in the Cup Series.
Thirteen consecutive top-ten finishes at one specific track. That is one of the most remarkable sustained consistency streaks by any driver at any venue in recent memory. He’s finished top five in three Gen 7 races here and five times in his last twelve starts at the paperclip.
Darlington and Las Vegas were Logano underperforming at tracks that don’t perfectly suit his strengths. Martinsville is the opposite. This is the track where everything clicks for the No. 22 and the data proves it over and over again. He’s back on the card this week and I’m confident in that call.
Ross Chastain (20th in points, 115 pts)
I can already hear the groans from some of you and I get it completely. Three tough weeks in a row and now I’m putting him back on the card. But hear me out because Martinsville specifically is a track where his data simply demands attention.
Chastain has an average finish of 8.5 over his last eight races at Martinsville, including the infamous Hail Melon wall ride in 2022 that showed exactly how creative and aggressive he can get when he absolutely needs track position. His rim-riding driving style is genuinely built for a short track like the paperclip. Trackhouse Racing has been improving their short track package steadily and Chastain’s natural aggression and car feel on a tight half-mile oval is a skill that doesn’t just disappear because he’s had a rough few weeks elsewhere on the schedule.
He’s 20th in points right now and that means the price is going to be very long this week. That’s exactly the spot we want to be in with an outside pick. The Martinsville track record is too strong to keep ignoring at a venue where his specific skills translate this well. He’s back on the card.
Chase Briscoe (22nd in points, 108 pts)
I know Briscoe is sitting 22nd in points and 2026 hasn’t gone the way any of us hoped for the No. 19 JGR Toyota. But Martinsville is where I think the tide starts to turn and here’s exactly why I’m targeting him this week.
Briscoe led 73 laps in the one short track race with the 750-horsepower package earlier this season and ranked fourth in True Performance at that event. That’s the exact same package being used at Martinsville on Sunday. The data tells us the speed is absolutely there when the track type suits him and short flat ovals suit him about as well as anything else on this schedule.
Beyond the package data, the JGR short track setup is one of the best in the garage and Briscoe gets full access to all of Hamlin and Bell’s notes heading into the weekend. When three cars from the same organisation are sharing information at a track like this, the rising tide lifts all boats and that absolutely works in Briscoe’s favour. He bounced back with an eighth at Las Vegas, showed genuine stage speed at Darlington before fading late, and the pieces feel like they’re coming together at exactly the right time. At the long odds he’ll be available at this week the risk is absolutely worth the upside.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Kyle Larson — In the seven races at Martinsville since the fall of 2022, Larson hasn’t finished outside the top six once. One win and six top fives in that stretch is one of the most elite sustained runs by any driver at any track in the Gen 7 era. He finished 32nd at Darlington last week after late wall contact but that had nothing to do with his Martinsville pace. He’s very close to making my card this week and he consistently qualifies well here too. Well worth a look for your own lineup.
Brad Keselowski — Coming off the best performance of his 2026 season at Darlington where he led 142 laps and swept both stages. He led 170 laps at Martinsville in the fall of 2024 and has genuine historical success at this venue. The momentum from last week is very real and at the longer odds he’ll be this week he’s worth a small outright look.
Ryan Preece His Martinsville credentials are outstanding and he is absolutely worth considering. He earned a pair of top-tens here last year, has led 135 laps in his last six Martinsville starts, and RFK Racing is one of the best-prepared short track operations in the garage right now.
Ryan Blaney The co-favourite with Hamlin coming into this week and the driver with the two wins in the last six Gen 7 starts at Martinsville. I moved him to the dark horses section because of how his pit crew has cost him this season, but the track record is undeniable. A clean day from his pit crew and Blaney wins this race.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Shane Van Gisbergen — 15th in points and riding a quiet 2026 season but Martinsville is a venue where Cup Series short track experience matters more than almost anywhere else on the schedule. SVG simply hasn’t logged enough laps at the paperclip yet to feel fully comfortable putting him in a pool lineup this week.
AJ Allmendinger — 18th in points and oval tracks in general are not where his skillset shines brightest. Martinsville is about as oval-specific as it gets on this schedule and I’d rather target drivers whose strengths align with what this track actually demands.
Daniel Suarez — 14th in points and coming off a solid seventh at Darlington but Martinsville has historically been a mid-pack result track for Suarez. Not enough upside at this track specifically to justify a pool spot when better options are available.
Carson Hocevar — As exciting as Darlington was, the Martinsville track history is the real concern here. I’d rather wait and see what Saturday practice tells us before committing to him in the pool. If the speed is there after practice I might feel differently but right now the history at this specific venue keeps him off my main card.
My Full Pool Card — Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway
Cook Out 400 at Martinsville
| # | Driver | Role | The Case | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ | 20 | Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Main Driver | Martinsville winner, top ten in 3 of last 5 starts here, JGR short track package is elite, bounce-back week incoming |
| 🏆 | 11 | Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Inside Top 12 | Six Martinsville wins, 2,722 laps led here, defending spring winner, most dominant active driver at the paperclip |
| 🏆 | 24 | William Byron Hendrick Motorsports • Chevrolet | Inside Top 12 | Three Martinsville wins including fall 2025, disciplined Darlington run sets him up perfectly this week |
| 🔥 | 22 | Joey Logano Team Penske • Ford | Outside Top 12 | Top ten in all 8 Gen 7 Martinsville races, top ten in last 13 Cup starts here, automatic at the paperclip |
| 🔥 | 1 | Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing • Chevrolet | Outside Top 12 | 8.5 avg finish over last 8 Martinsville races, aggressive style built for this track, long odds on elite track record |
| 🔥 | 19 | Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing • Toyota | Outside Top 12 | Led 73 laps at Phoenix on this same package, JGR short track setup is elite, building toward a big result |
That’s the card everyone and I genuinely like how it’s built this week. Bell at a track where he’s won before and finished second last spring, Hamlin as the anchor with the most dominant active record at the paperclip, Byron with three wins here and a clean Darlington week behind him, Logano bringing the most reliable top-ten record of any driver outside the top 12 at this specific venue, Chastain bringing elite Martinsville track history at a long price, and Briscoe as the JGR short track dart that I think is going to surprise people on Sunday.
Qualifying goes Saturday afternoon and once that starting grid is set a lot of the picture will become clearer. Sunday’s green flag drops at 3:41 PM ET and I’ll be watching every single lap.
I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full race recap and a complete breakdown of how the pool card held up. Until then enjoy the weekend everyone and let’s have a massive one at Martinsville!
Bryan
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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