Alright everyone, welcome back to Driving on Marbles. We are staying out west this weekend and heading to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube, and after what happened last Sunday at Phoenix, I am feeling very locked in for this one.
Last week was one of our best weeks of the season. Ryan Blaney delivered as our Lock of the Week in the biggest possible way, winning the whole thing. Christopher Bell was the class of the field for most of the afternoon, leading 176 laps and winning Stage 2, only to come up just short at the end. Kyle Larson came home third. Denny Hamlin fifth. William Byron seventh. Five of six pool picks finished inside the top 10 and the only blemish was Chase Briscoe’s tire failure DNF, which was pure bad luck and nothing more. We are riding that momentum straight into Sin City.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with 20-degree banking in the turns, making it the first true intermediate oval of the 2026 season. This is the track type that makes up the biggest chunk of the NASCAR schedule and Sunday’s race is going to tell us a lot about who the real championship contenders are. Speed, aero management, tire conservation, pit strategy. All of it matters across 267 laps here.
Let me walk you through exactly who I am riding with this weekend.
My Main Man: Christopher Bell (+550 to +650)
You all know how this works. Christopher Bell is my driver for the season, well at least until the halfway point of the season, at which time I can select another driver to finish off the season…but for now, I am fully locked in on him again this week, and honestly I’m pretty happy with my main driver decision this year.
Coming out of Phoenix with 176 laps led and a Stage 2 victory, Bell is arguably the hottest driver in the field right now. The No. 20 JGR Toyota is clearly coming alive at exactly the right time and the confidence you build from dominating a race like that carries directly into the next weekend.
At Las Vegas specifically, Bell has been quietly excellent. He has four top-five finishes in his last six starts here. He has won the pole at this track three times. He led 155 laps in the spring 2024 race and finished second. He finished third in the fall 2025 race. He has a top-three result in each of his last two Las Vegas appearances. His floor at this track when the car is right is a top-five finish, and after what we saw at Phoenix, that car is absolutely right.
At plus-550 to plus-650 depending on your book, you are getting a driver who has finished top-five in four of his last six Las Vegas starts and is coming off a near-win performance with maximum confidence. Bell is my pick to win the Pennzoil 400 and I feel great about it.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Kyle Larson (+450 to +500)
Kyle Larson is the betting favorite and I am still making him one of my two inside top-12 picks because the data absolutely demands it. This is not chasing chalk. This is respecting what the numbers say about a driver at his best track.
Larson has led 793 laps in his last 10 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He has three wins here. In that same 10-race stretch he has six top-five finishes and eight top-10 finishes. He led 181 of 267 laps in the spring 2024 race and swept both stages. His career average finishing position of 9.4 at this track is the best of any active Cup driver. Hendrick Motorsports has more Cup wins at Las Vegas than any other organization in NASCAR history with 10 total. He came out of Phoenix third last week and his momentum is clearly building heading into the first intermediate oval of 2026.
The market has moved him from plus-500 down to around plus-450 as the smart money has rolled in, but even at that price he is the correct inside top-12 roster pick here. His ceiling is complete domination. His floor is still a top-5 finish. For a pool that rewards finishing position plus stage points, Larson is a must-roster at this track.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Joey Logano (+1100 to +1400)
Joey Logano is sitting 7th in points and at this price he is one of the most compelling plays on the entire board this weekend. Here is my thinking.
What happened to Logano at Phoenix was not a performance problem. He led 73 laps, the most of any driver in that race, and was clearly the dominant car before getting collected in a late-race accident through absolutely no fault of his own. He leaves Phoenix with a DNF and a fire in his belly, and when Logano is furious with something to prove, you do not want to be standing in his way at Las Vegas Motor Speedway of all places.
Because Logano owns this track. He is a four-time winner here, winning in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2024. He has led at least one lap in six of the last seven races at LVMS. His top-5 rate here is over 30 percent and his top-10 rate is over 60 percent. He has more laps led at this track over the last 10 races than any other active driver. Team Penske knows Las Vegas cold and Logano is going to show up Sunday with a major point to make. At plus-1100 to plus-1400 on a four-time track winner who is motivated and angry, this is one of the best values I have seen all season.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Ross Chastain (23rd in Standings, +1400 to +2000)
Ross Chastain at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is one of those statistical cases that you have to force yourself to act on because it seems almost too good to be true at his price. Here are the facts.
He has finished in the top five in six of the eight Next Gen races at Las Vegas. Six out of eight. He ranks third behind only Larson and Byron in average points earned at this track. His average finish over his last six starts here is 9.3, which trails only Larson among all active drivers. He has wins at Kansas and Charlotte which share the same intermediate oval DNA as Las Vegas. Trackhouse Racing has shown they can build a car capable of running up front at this track type and Chastain has consistently delivered when they give him one.
His name is not generating much public betting action this week which is exactly how I like it. At plus-1400 to plus-2000 depending on your book, this is an elite Las Vegas performer sitting at a longshot price purely because he is 23rd in the current standings. That is the exact kind of mispriced value I am targeting in my outside top-12 spots.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Chase Briscoe (27th in Standings, +900 to +1400)
I know Chase Briscoe DNF’d at Phoenix with a tire failure and I know that stings. But that had nothing to do with the quality of his car or his driving and everything to do with bad luck. He comes to Las Vegas with something to prove and the data says he is fully capable of proving it.
His intermediate oval numbers are genuinely impressive. He has five top-five finishes in his last six intermediate track starts. He qualified on the pole in three of the last five intermediate races. He finished fourth at Las Vegas in the fall 2025 race and collected stage points twice in that same event. JGR is going to give him a quality Las Vegas setup and Briscoe has already shown this season that when the car is right he can absolutely run with the leaders at this track type. This is a classic bounce-back spot and I am comfortable putting him in my third outside slot.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Ty Gibbs (15th in Standings, +3000 to +3300)
TY Gibbs is the pick I am most excited to talk about this week because I think the broader NASCAR community is sleeping on him right now and the recent numbers demand attention.
He has back-to-back fourth-place finishes in the last two races. Back to back. He finished fourth at Phoenix last week collecting stage points along the way and he finished fourth the week before that too. That kind of consistent top-five performance does not happen by accident. The No. 54 JGR Toyota is clearly one of the fastest cars on the circuit right now and Gibbs is driving with a level of confidence and maturity that we have not always seen from him.
Las Vegas is a track where JGR traditionally shows up strong and Gibbs now has enough Cup Series experience to understand how to manage a 267-lap intermediate oval. He is priced at plus-3000 to plus-3300 which makes him a genuine longshot, but a driver who has finished fourth in two straight races and is riding that kind of momentum into his first intermediate oval of the season is exactly the kind of outside pick I want in my pool. If everything breaks right, his upside is a top-5 finish and a big stage points day.
Dark Horses Worth a Look
William Byron (+850 to +1000) — Past Pennzoil 400 winner in 2023 with four top-five finishes in the last 10 Las Vegas races. He led 55 laps last fall before getting collected in someone else’s accident with no warning. Hendrick Motorsports is going to bring one of the fastest cars in the garage here and Byron has every reason to put together a big performance. At the right price he is absolutely worth a small outright bet.
Denny Hamlin (+600 to +750) — The defending fall race winner at this track. The single biggest odds mover on the board this week. Two career Las Vegas wins. Coming off a top-5 at Phoenix. If he were sitting 13th or lower in the standings he would be in my pool lineup without a second thought. Worth a real look for outright betting purposes even if he does not fit my pool this week.
Drivers I Am Steering Clear Of
Ryan Blaney — Phoenix winner, great form, and I still will not touch him at Las Vegas. Three consecutive finishes of 32nd or worse at this track including crashing out of both races last season. At plus-800 to plus-1100 that recent track history is too ugly to ignore no matter how good he feels right now.
Josh Berry (defending Pennzoil 400 champion) — His average running position at Las Vegas across a full sample is outside the top 20. The analytics community largely agrees last year’s win here came from strategy and circumstance more than raw pace. The defending champion storyline will be all over the broadcast but the data says fade.
Shane Van Gisbergen — First intermediate oval of his Cup Series career. We have no data on how SVG handles 267 laps at a 1.5-mile track. That uncertainty alone keeps him completely off my card this weekend.
The Full Pool Lineup at a Glance
🏁 My Full Pool Card — Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sunday, March 15, 2026 | 4:00 PM ET | FS1 & FOX One
| Driver | Role | Why I Love It |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | ⭐ Main Driver / Win Pick | 4 top-5s in last 6 Vegas starts — coming off 176 laps led at Phoenix |
| Kyle Larson | 🏆 Inside Top 12 | 3-time winner, 793 laps led in last 10 starts — best avg finish of any active driver here |
| Joey Logano | 🏆 Inside Top 12 | 4-time Vegas winner — led the most laps at Phoenix, furious and motivated |
| Ross Chastain | 🔥 Outside Top 12 | Top-5 in 6 of 8 Next Gen Vegas races — elite track record at a longshot price |
| Chase Briscoe | 🔥 Outside Top 12 | 5 top-5s in last 6 intermediate starts — prime bounce-back spot after Phoenix DNF |
| Ty Gibbs | 🔥 Outside Top 12 | Back-to-back 4th place finishes — momentum is real and JGR knows Las Vegas cold |
Wrapping Up My Picks for the Pennzoil 400
This is a card I feel genuinely confident about from top to bottom. Bell at plus-550 to plus-650 coming off 176 laps led and a near-win at Phoenix is outstanding value on my main driver. Logano as an inside top-12 pick at plus-1100 is one of the best prices you will ever get on a four-time track winner. And Gibbs as the outside dart at plus-3000 coming off back-to-back fourth-place finishes is a sneaky good pool play that I think is going to pay off.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway puts on a great race every single time the Cup Series rolls into town and this year’s field is stacked with contenders. Green flag drops at 4:00 PM ET on FS1 and FOX One this Sunday.
Let’s have a big week everybody. Bet smart, have fun with it, and I will see you back here after the checkered flag.
Bryan
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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