Welcome back to Driving on Marbles racefans! It’s Throwback Weekend at Darlington Raceway and I couldn’t be more fired up about this one. This is genuinely one of my favourite weekends on the entire NASCAR calendar and this year’s Goodyear 400 has all the ingredients to be an absolute classic.
Let’s get to breaking down this week’s picks for the Lady in Black!
Last week at Las Vegas was a mixed bag if I’m being honest with you all. Denny Hamlin went out and won the whole thing after we had him right there in our dark horses section, said he was worth a real look, and then didn’t pull the trigger on him as a primary pick. That one stings.
Ty Gibbs delivered finishing fifth, Christopher Bell was solid in fourth, and Chase Briscoe bounced back beautifully with an eighth. Logano and Chastain let us down and cost us on the back end of the card. We move forward.
This week we’re heading to one of the most unique and demanding venues in all of motorsport. Darlington‘s a 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval that’s been humbling the best drivers in the sport since 1952, and this year she’s got a brand new weapon. It’s 750 horsepower at Darlington for the first time in the NextGen era, the same setup that turned Phoenix into a tire war two weeks ago, with the expectation of up to four seconds of tire fall-off at the end of a run.
Both Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have said publicly this week it could be one of the most chaotic and entertaining races of the entire 2026 season. I believe them completely.
There’s also a really cool storyline this weekend with NASCAR Hall of Famer Mark Martin serving as the honorary pace car driver for the Goodyear 400. Martin is tied with the late Dale Earnhardt for the most all-time wins at Darlington with 12 career victories across multiple series. It doesn’t get more Throwback Weekend than that.
Green flag drops at 3:00 PM ET this Sunday March 22. Here’s exactly who I’m riding with this week.
My Main Man: Christopher Bell (+900 to +1000)
You all know how this works. Christopher Bell is my driver for the season and I’m fully locked in on him again this week, and honestly the Darlington data gives me a lot of comfort heading into Sunday.
Bell’s been absolutely on fire over the last three races. He led 176 laps at Phoenix, won the pole and Stage 1 at Las Vegas, and he’s been one of the two or three most impressive drivers on the circuit over the past month. The No. 20 JGR Toyota is fast everywhere right now and Darlington is a track where Joe Gibbs Racing has historically been dominant.
Bell has earned a pair of third-place finishes in his last three Darlington starts, which is exactly the kind of track history you want to see heading into a weekend where tire management matters more than raw pace.
At plus-900, you’re getting a driver who finished runner-up at Phoenix in a dominant performance, fourth at Las Vegas, and third at COTA, heading to a track where he’s put together back-to-back top-three results in his most recent visits.
His floor here when the car is right is a top-five finish and after what we’ve seen from the No. 20 the last three weeks, that car is absolutely right. Bell’s my pick to win the Goodyear 400 and I feel great about it.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Tyler Reddick (+650 to +700)
This one’s about as straightforward as it gets. Reddick is the best Darlington driver in the Gen 7 era with eight starts, a 9.6 average finish, 320 laps led, and six top-10 finishes.
His results read 2, 3, 22, 2, 32, 10, 4, 2 — four runner-up finishes at a track most drivers never fully figure out. DraftKings Network
Win the Race ran 200,000 simulations of this race and Reddick came out on top, winning 18.1% of the time with a fair value of around plus-453.
He’s been a little underrated in the conversation this week after fading to 13th at Las Vegas, but that was an intermediate oval issue not a Darlington issue. His tire management, his rim-riding style, and his track record here all point in the same direction.
He’s going to be extremely difficult to beat on Sunday and at plus-700 he’s an outstanding inside top-12 value. He leads the points standings by 61 points and has absolutely nothing to lose this weekend.
Inside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Denny Hamlin (+550)
I know what you’re thinking. Denny Hamlin just won last week and now I’m putting him in my inside top-12 instead of the dark horses section. You’re right. I should’ve had him here last week too. Lesson learned.
Hamlin is a five-time Darlington winner with a 74-percent top-10 rate at this track. His 7.9 career average finish leads all active drivers at the Lady in Black. He’s the defending spring Darlington champion. He just won Las Vegas leading 134 laps from 21st after a pit road penalty. He’s said publicly this week that tire management is going to be the decisive factor in this race. Tire management is his single greatest skill as a driver. This is quite literally his best track combined with the conditions that suit him most this season.
Hamlin is the favorite for good reason. The market opened him at plus-550 because he is the defending winner, the most consistent Darlington finisher in the field, and the driver most likely to turn tire preservation into a race win.The price is short but the case is completely clean. He’s the anchor of the card this week.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 1: Chase Briscoe (+700 to +850)
Here’s the pick I’m most excited about this week and the one I think gives us the best shot at a massive result. Briscoe has won two of the last three races at Darlington and nobody in this field takes better care of tires late in a run at this track. His 2025 fall win was built entirely on tire management, leading 309 laps and making it look completely routine.
Now here’s what makes this even more compelling heading into Sunday. The question entering this week was whether the No. 19 Toyota had turned the corner after three ugly finishes to start 2026. His Las Vegas run answered that Briscoe finished eighth and showed legitimate speed all afternoon.
He’s been a bounce-back story twice in recent weeks and he keeps delivering. At plus-850 for a two-time winner at this specific track with the tire management skills that matter most this weekend, this is the value play of the week. Don’t overthink it.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 2: Ross Chastain (+3000)
Look, Chastain burned us at Las Vegas last week finishing 17th and I know that’s still fresh. But here’s the thing about Darlington specifically, his track record here is genuinely too strong to walk away from after one bad result at a completely different type of venue.
Reddick leads with a 5.25 average running position over the last four Darlington races, but Chastain has an average finish of 8.5 over his last four races here, which is second-best among all drivers in the field this weekend.
Five top-fives in eight Next Gen races at the Lady in Black. His aggressive rim-riding style is absolutely built for this track and Trackhouse Racing has shown they can build fast cars at Darlington specifically.
Nobody’s talking about him at plus-3000. The public is loading up on Hamlin and Reddick and completely ignoring a driver with an 8.5 average finish over his last four Darlington races. That’s exactly the spot we want to be in. He’s back on the card this week and I’m comfortable with that decision.
Outside Top 12 Pick No. 3: Ryan Preece (+4000 to +6000)
This is my longshot dart of the week and I think it’s a genuinely smart play in a pool format. Here’s why I’m going here.
The RFK Racing trio of Keselowski, Buescher and Preece continued their solid start to the 2026 season at Las Vegas with all three finishing 11th or better. Preece crossed the line 11th and is currently 13th in the Cup Series standings.
That’s a consistent, well-resourced operation that keeps showing up every single week.
Don’t forget that Preece won the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray to open the 2026 season, showing he can win when the opportunity presents itself. RFK Racing is running three throwback paint schemes at Darlington this weekend in memory of Greg Biffle, which tells you this is a race weekend the team is emotionally invested in.
Darlington rewards precision, patience, and clean execution over 293 laps, all things Preece has been showing consistently all season. At plus-4000 or better in a pool format, this is the kind of outside dart that can win a week for you if everything breaks right.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
William Byron (+700 to +900) — I moved Byron off the main card to go all-in on Toyota this week but his Darlington spring credentials are genuinely elite and I’d be doing you a disservice not to mention him here. His Gen 7 average at Darlington is 10.6 with 328 laps led, second only to Reddick. Remove a tire issue result from his average and he’s top-five essentially every time he shows up here in the spring.
He won here in spring 2023 and led 243 laps in the spring 2025 race before losing the win in the final pit cycle. If you’re not on the Toyota bandwagon this week he’s absolutely the first name on your card.
Bubba Wallace (+2200) — Wallace has five top-10s in his last seven Darlington starts and his hot start to 2026 continues to fly completely under the public radar. He ranks fourth in average running position over the last four Darlington races at 9.0, which is genuinely outstanding company. 23XI Racing is the fastest organisation in NASCAR right now and Wallace has been the story of the early 2026 season sitting second in points. At plus-2200 he’s worth a small outright investment.
Drivers I'm Steering Clear Of
Kyle Larson — He’s plus-600 and the talent is obviously there but Larson hasn’t finished better than 20th in the spring Darlington race in the NextGen era and last year his race ended on Lap 4. The Chevrolet package has been a question mark all season and Darlington has a way of exposing exactly those kinds of weaknesses. I need to see qualifying speed on Saturday before I trust him here.
Joey Logano — Burned us at Las Vegas after we talked him up all week. I’m keeping my distance until he shows me something in Saturday practice. His spring Darlington record in the NextGen era doesn’t inspire confidence either.
Ryan Blaney — Won at Phoenix but was poor at Las Vegas finishing 16th and his overall Darlington spring record in the NextGen era has been inconsistent. Not enough value at his current price to justify the uncertainty.
Josh Berry — He’s finished 26th or worse in four consecutive starts. Covers Hard fade, no hesitation.
My Full Pool Card — Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway
Driving on Marbles — Race 6 of 36
My Full Pool Card — Goodyear 400
at Darlington Raceway
| Driver | Role | Odds | The Case |
|---|---|---|---|
|
20
Christopher Bell
Joe Gibbs Racing — Toyota
|
⭐ Main Driver | +900 | Two top-3s in last three Darlington starts — JGR is flying right now |
|
45
Tyler Reddick
23XI Racing — Toyota
|
🏆 Inside Top 12 | +700 | Best Gen 7 Darlington driver — 320 laps led & four runner-up finishes here |
|
11
Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing — Toyota
|
🏆 Inside Top 12 | +550 | Five Darlington wins, best career avg finish of any active driver, defending champion |
|
19
Chase Briscoe
Joe Gibbs Racing — Toyota
|
🔥 Outside Top 12 | +850 | Two-time Darlington winner — best tire manager in the field this weekend |
|
1
Ross Chastain
Trackhouse Racing — Chevrolet
|
🔥 Outside Top 12 | +3000 | 8.5 avg finish over last four Darlington races — elite track record at a longshot price |
|
60
Ryan Preece
RFK Racing — Ford
|
🔥 Outside Top 12 | +4000 | Consistent all season for RFK — longshot dart with real upside at Throwback Weekend |
That’s the card folks and I genuinely feel great about this one from top to bottom. It’s a full Toyota stack across the main picks with Bell, Reddick, Hamlin and Briscoe all flying the JGR and 23XI flags, Chastain bringing the Darlington track record value, and Preece as the longshot dart that could make our week.
Qualifying goes Saturday afternoon and once that grid is set we’ll know a lot more about who’s brought the fast car to Throwback Weekend. Sunday’s green flag drops at 3:00 PM ET and I’ll be watching every single lap.
I’ll be back after the checkered flag with the full race recap and a breakdown of how our pool card held up against the Lady in Black. Until then, enjoy the race everyone. Let’s have a huge one.
Author Profile
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Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
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