Hey Race fans, we’re heading to Austin, Texas which is back on the calendar, and the Cup Series returns to Circuit of the Americas for one of the most unique and unpredictable events of the season.
COTA’s 20-turn, 3.41-mile layout demands a completely different skill set from the ovals that define NASCAR’s identity, smooth inputs, mechanical sympathy, and road racing instincts separate the elite from the also-rans here.
With the 2025 standings already revealing some surprising names near the top and a few familiar faces in unfamiliar territory, this race has the potential to shake up the playoff picture in a major way.
Let’s get to this week’s full breakdown of the top 20 drivers in the current standings and what to expect from each of them this Sunday in Austin, plus a special section on the full-time Cup drivers sitting outside the top 20 who could make serious noise on race day.
Let’s get into todays post.
Top 20 Cup Driver Previews
#1 – Tyler Reddick | Points: 125 | Wins: 2
The early 2025 season leader and undisputed hot hand right now with two wins already banked, Reddick is a legitimate COTA threat. He has shown the car control and smooth throttle discipline that road courses demand, and 23XI Racing’s Toyota package has looked quick on twisty layouts. Expect him to qualify up front and contend for the win.
#2 – Bubba Wallace | Points: 85
Wallace has been strikingly consistent this year, sitting second without a win, a sign of strong week-in, week-out finishes. At COTA, he will need to lean on his teammates’ data and his own improving road course acumen. His aggressive style can be an asset in wheel-to-wheel combat through the esses, but strategic execution will be key.
#3 – Chase Elliott | Points: 81
The road course king is right where you’d expect him: lurking near the top of the standings and almost certain to be among the favorites at COTA. Elliott has more road course wins in the Cup Series than virtually any active driver and is almost impossibly consistent on technical circuits. Put him near the top of your pick list.
#4 – Carson Hocevar | Points: 74
One of the breakout stories of the early season, Hocevar has punched well above his weight in Spire Motorsports’ No. 77. Road courses historically expose under-resourced teams in terms of setup depth, but Hocevar’s raw talent has been turning heads. A top-15 would be an excellent result; a top-10 would be a statement.
#5 – Zane Smith | Points: 71
Smith transitions from his truck and Xfinity roots into Cup with surprising points-standing success. Road courses will be a significant test of his adaptability. He showed flashes at COTA in previous series, and his mechanical feel behind the wheel could translate well. Look for a gritty, points-focused drive.
#6 – Joey Logano | Points: 68
Logano has historically been a middle-tier road course performer, capable of solid runs, but rarely in the same conversation as Elliott or Suárez. Team Penske’s resources will put him in a competitive setup, and his experience navigating traffic makes him dangerous later in races when strategy opens up.
#7 – Daniel Suárez | Points: 67
Suárez is quietly one of the most underrated road course drivers in the field. Born in Mexico and with deep karting and sports car roots, Trackhouse Racing’s No. 99 is a genuine podium contender at COTA every time out. He has the pedigree, the team support, and the circuit knowledge to run with the best.
#8 – Ryan Blaney | Points: 67
The reigning Cup champion is finding his stride after a slow start to 2025. Blaney is a competent road racer who makes smart decisions, preserves tires, and capitalizes on late-race opportunities. Don’t sleep on him, he has the talent and the Penske horsepower to run up front at Austin.
#9 – Brad Keselowski | Points: 61
Keselowski has evolved into a solid road course driver who rarely embarrasses himself, but winning on these tracks has remained elusive. RFK Racing has shown flashes of improvement, and if Brad can get into a clean race and execute pit strategy, a top-10 is well within reach.
#10 – Chris Buescher | Points: 61
Buescher continues to be one of the most quietly consistent drivers in the garage, and road courses suit his smooth, methodical style. He won’t wow anyone in qualifying, but his race-day tire management and clean driving mean he often moves forward as the laps pile up at COTA.
#11 – Ross Chastain | Points: 51
Chastain at road courses is a fascinating study in organized chaos. He is relentlessly fast but sometimes oversteps, occasional spins and contact have cost him in the past at COTA. When it clicks, though, he can be electric. Expect him to be either brilliant or involved in an incident, perhaps both.
#12 – Noah Gragson | Points: 50
Gragson is in a proving year with Front Row Motorsports. Road courses tend to be developmental challenges for drivers still finding their footing at the Cup level, and Gragson will need to be disciplined and avoid early-race mistakes. A solid, points-paying finish in the teens would be a win for his campaign.
#13 – William Byron | Points: 50
Byron is one of the most analytical drivers in NASCAR, and that mindset suits road courses. Hendrick Motorsports’ engineering depth gives him a tremendous setup advantage, and Byron has grown into a legitimate COTA contender. If he qualifies near the front and avoids early incidents, expect a strong run.
#14 – Ryan Preece | Points: 49
Preece brings toughness and racecraft to every event, and COTA rewards drivers who can put together clean stints. He won’t have the absolute quickest car, but RFK Racing has found speed this year and Preece’s ability to manage traffic in a physical race environment could yield a pleasant surprise.
#15 – Chase Briscoe | Points: 45
Briscoe finds himself in new territory with Joe Gibbs Racing after his move from Stewart-Haas. JGR’s resources and COTA-specific data trove give him a much stronger foundation than he has had before at this track. If the new partnership gels on a road course, Briscoe could surprise some people this weekend.
#16 – Shane Van Gisbergen | Points: 45
SVG is the wild card that every COTA preview must address. The three-time Supercars champion and road course specialist is in a class of his own on technical circuits. Despite running a limited Cup schedule, Van Gisbergen demonstrated immediately that COTA is his playground. He is a bona fide win contender, full stop.
#17 – Ty Dillon | Points: 44
Dillon has shown renewed energy and consistency this season. Road courses are demanding on cars that don’t have unlimited R&D budgets, so managing the car and staying clean through the early laps will be the priority. A strong strategic call from the pit box could elevate him well into the top 15.
#18 – AJ Allmendinger | Points: 43
If Shane Van Gisbergen is the wild card, Allmendinger is the road course vet you simply cannot overlook. One of the best pure road racers in NASCAR history, AJ has turned in stunning performances at COTA before and always seems to have extra speed on these layouts. Kaulig Racing will give him a capable car, and his experience will shine in the race’s most critical moments.
#19 – John H. Nemechek | Points: 43
Nemechek is still building his Cup résumé, and COTA will be a useful barometer of where he stands on one of the most technical venues on the schedule. His familiarity with road courses from lower series work helps, but the Cup machinery demands another level of precision. Look for steady, position-banking lap work.
#20 – Michael McDowell | Points: 43
McDowell is a veteran who has made a career of maximizing what he has, and COTA is no exception. Spire Motorsports won’t have the fastest car in the field, but McDowell’s racecraft, tire awareness, and ability to avoid trouble in chaotic early laps make him a points-earner year after year. Don’t be surprised to see him still running strong at the checkered flag.
Hidden Threats: Full-Time Drivers Outside the Top 20
Don’t be fooled by the early-season standings. Several full-time Cup regulars sitting outside the top 20 have the road course pedigree and the equipment to completely upset the apple cart at COTA. These are the names you need to watch.
Kyle Larson | No. 5 – Hendrick Motorsports
Sitting just outside the top 20 at 21st with 42 points, Larson‘s standings position is almost certainly not reflective of where he will run at COTA. One of the most naturally gifted racers in the sport, Larson has consistently been among the fastest drivers on road courses throughout his career. His COTA results include multiple strong runs that should have translated to more wins. Hendrick Motorsports’ resources and Larson’s raw mechanical feel make him a near-certain front-runner this weekend. Do not let his current ranking fool you for a moment.
Kyle Busch | No. 8 – Richard Childress Racing
At 24th in points with 36, Busch is having a difficult season by his own lofty standards, but road courses historically bring out a sharper, more engaged version of the two-time Cup champion. Busch’s car control and smooth precision on technical circuits is well-documented, and COTA has given him some of his better results in recent years. If the RCR package has anything close to competitive speed, expect Busch to make a charge through the field.
Christopher Bell | No. 20 – Joe Gibbs Racing
Bell doesn’t appear yet in the top 25 standings snapshot, but as a full-time JGR driver he is absolutely a factor here. A former Xfinity road course winner with exceptional car control, Bell’s analytical approach to technical circuits maps perfectly onto what COTA demands. With JGR’s setup depth behind him, Bell is a legitimate top-5 threat and perhaps even a sleeper win candidate.
Denny Hamlin | No. 11 – Joe Gibbs Racing
Hamlin is another full-time JGR driver who may be lurking outside the early-season top 25, and like Bell, his road course credentials are strong. Hamlin won at Pocono (a road-course-adjacent hybrid) and has consistently extracted good results from technical layouts. As one of the most experienced active drivers in the garage, he knows how to manage a 2.3-mile COTA layout with the precision it demands.
Austin Cindric | No. 2 – Team Penske
Cindric is a product of the Penske development program and brings serious road racing polish to every event. With a deep résumé from the Xfinity Series on road courses, including multiple wins, Cindric has the technical foundation to run well at COTA. Penske’s car will be fast, and if Cindric can put together a clean race, a top-10 is very achievable and a top-5 is not out of the question.
Erik Jones | No. 43 – Legacy Motor Club
Jones is a solid all-around driver who tends to be more competitive on road courses than his team’s typical resources would suggest. He has shown real road course awareness over the years and could be a sneaky points-scorer at COTA. Legacy Motor Club won’t have the outright speed of the big four organizations, but Jones’ smooth, consistent style could produce a quietly impressive result.
The Big Picture
When the dust settles at COTA, a few narratives will likely define the weekend. Chase Elliott and Shane Van Gisbergen figure to be the two names on everyone’s lips as the race approaches. Elliott for his historic road course dominance within the Cup Series, and SVG for the kind of otherworldly road racing talent that makes traditional NASCAR fans’ jaws drop. Daniel Suárez on home soil and AJ Allmendinger as a perpetual wild card round out the short list of drivers most likely to stand in Victory Lane.
But don’t sleep on the names in that Hidden Threats section. Kyle Larson at 21st in points is essentially a mirage, the No. 5 Hendrick Chevy is going to be fast on Sunday, full stop. Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin bring JGR firepower from down the standings, and Austin Cindric’s road racing résumé makes him dangerous every time the Cup Series ventures off the oval.
For the points chasers, Bubba Wallace, Carson Hocevar, and Zane Smith, this weekend is an opportunity to either consolidate or expose the foundations of their surprisingly strong starts to 2025. COTA does not lie. It rewards talent and preparation, and it has a way of sorting the standings in ways that 1.5-mile ovals simply cannot.
Buckle up. Austin is always one of the best weekends of the NASCAR season.
Author Profile
-
Hey there race fans, welcome to Driving on Marbles, where I break down NASCAR with real insight, smart strategy, and race by race analysis. This isn’t just race recaps and highlight talk, it’s trends, track history, driver momentum, and the little details that actually make a difference on race day.
Whether you’re setting your fantasy lineup, looking for betting angles, or just want to understand why things happen on the track, I’ve got you covered. My goal is simple: help fans see the race the way teams and strategists do, one decision, one adjustment, one edge at a time.
If you love NASCAR and want more than surface level coverage, you’re in the right place.
Let’s get you closer to the action.
Latest entries
- March 20, 2026Betting PicksNASCAR Darlington 2026: My Picks, Best Bets & Pool Lineup for the Goodyear 400
- March 18, 2026BLOGNASCAR Darlington 2026: Top 20 Driver Rankings for the Goodyear 400
- March 16, 2026BLOGPennzoil 400 Recap 2026: Hamlin Wins at Las Vegas, Bell Poles, and How My Picks Did
- March 14, 2026BLOGNASCAR Las Vegas 2026: My Picks, Best Bets & Pool Lineup for the Pennzoil 400
